Plan 2980 Plan · Tomball, TX 77377

$322,995

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,980 sqft · SingleFamily · 630 Days on market

↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

Key facts

• Low-e windows
• Near local schools
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• LOW-E WINDOWS
• WATERSENSE® LABELED FAUCETS
• ENERGY STAR® CERTIFIED HOME
• NEAR LOCAL SCHOOLS

🏗️ New construction. The $322,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $393,720.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $323k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-751 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $285k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (22.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $249k (22.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Rosehill El (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 695 students, 56% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 46% FRL vs 26% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 730 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 630 days — a 12% lower offer ($284k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $249,362 (22.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 630 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.17%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $393,720
• List price: $322,995
• Delta: -17.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22106 Heartwood Elm Trl	0.10mi	4/3.5	2,872 (-4%)	8mo	$403,990	$141	79
18211 Walnut Canopy Way	0.07mi	4/3.5	2,837 (-5%)	10mo	$424,340	$150	76
18210 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.24mi	4/3.5	2,902 (-3%)	8mo	$397,990	$137	74
18222 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.22mi	4/3.5	2,902 (-3%)	11mo	$399,990	$138	72
18214 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.23mi	4/3.5	2,872 (-4%)	9mo	$396,990	$138	72
18207 Walnut Canopy Way	0.08mi	4/3.5	2,782 (-7%)	11mo	$399,990	$144	72
18331 Yaupon Bough Ln	0.16mi	4/3.5	2,723 (-9%)	8mo	$379,900	$140	68
18502 Rosehill Manor Ct	0.46mi	4/3.5	3,172 (+6%)	1mo	$1,100,000	$347	63
18218 Hidden Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,752 (-8%)	8mo	$334,995	$122	56
21514 Julie Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,808 (-6%)	5mo	$525,000	$187	55
21319 Rosehill Church Rd	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,895 (-3%)	11mo	$724,900	$250	49
17707 Chartertree Ln	0.70mi	5/4.0 (+1)	2,830 (-5%)	11mo	$350,000	$124	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -34.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-118,898
• Equity at exit: $58,705

10-year hold

• IRR: -65.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.75×
• Total profit: $-193,210
• Equity at exit: $34,042

Cash invested: $110,241 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77377

• Home prices YoY: -24.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 730
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,494 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,065
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$492 /mo · $5,906/yr
• Insurance: −$164
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$524
• Net cashflow: $-751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,444

Max offer price $285,056

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-479	-5% $-615	+0% $-751	+5% $-887	+10% $-1,023
Rent	-10% $-948	-5% $-849	+0% $-751	+5% $-652	+10% $-554
Rate	-1.0pp $-553	-0.5pp $-651	base $-751	+0.5pp $-853	+1.0pp $-957

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,430
• Closing costs: $11,812
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $322,995 Active 630 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $322,995 Active 627 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $322,995 Active 626 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $322,995 Active 625 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $322,995 Active 624 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,995 Active 622 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $322,995 Active 621 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $322,995 Active 618 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $322,995 Active 617 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $322,995 Active 616 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $322,995 Active 613 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $322,995 Active 612 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $322,995 Active 611 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $322,995 Active 610 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $322,995 Active 609 DOM
16. 2025-12-27
    price $322,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

17. 2025-12-09
    price $320,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

18. 2025-12-01
    price $318,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

19. 2025-11-18
    price $316,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

20. 2025-11-10
    price $310,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

21. 2025-08-03
    status Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

22. 2025-08-03
    price $308,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

23. 2025-05-10
    historical 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

24. 2025-05-02
    price $323,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

25. 2025-02-01
    price $328,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

26. 2024-11-01
    status Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

27. 2024-10-01
    historical 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

28. 2024-09-05
    price $326,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

29. 2024-09-04
    status Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

30. 2024-09-04
    price $336,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

31. 2024-08-01
    historical 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

32. 2024-07-13
    price $346,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

33. 2024-06-13
    price $352,995 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

34. 2024-05-01
    listed $357,995 Active 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    * Gas range * Granite kitchen countertops * Smart thermostat * Stainless steel appliances * Downstairs primary suite * Low-E windows * 6-panel interior doors * Kitchen USB charging port * Spacious great room * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Dedicated laundry room * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Oversized homesites * Greenbelt homesites available * Near local schools * Splash pad * Playground * Near popular restaurants

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,923
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,054
• − Property taxes: −$5,906
• − Insurance: −$1,969
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,394
• − Management: −$2,394
• − Depreciation: −$11,454
• Taxable loss: −$16,247
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,899
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,112/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,680
• Household income: $129,327
• Rent vs Own: 15.7% rent · 84.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 444.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 12% Asian 9% Black 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.14%
• Current HPI: 235.031
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.69%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-9.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $322,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $320,995 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $318,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-18 Price Changed $316,995 Zillow
• 2025-11-10 Price Changed $310,995 Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $308,995 Zillow
• 2025-05-10 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-05-02 Price Changed $323,995 Zillow
• 2025-02-01 Price Changed $328,995 Zillow
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-10-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $326,995 Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2024-09-04 Price Changed $336,995 Zillow
• 2024-08-01 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Price Changed $346,995 Zillow
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $352,995 Zillow
• 2024-05-01 Listed $357,995 Zillow