2103 Stacey Dr · Mount Dora, FL 32757

$221,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Palm Harbor model 1993. Large master bedroom and master bathroom. Split bedroom plan with hallway full bath. Large living/dining room area. Kitchen with dinette. Open floorplan, light and bright. Lot backs to woods.

Key facts

• Backs to woods
• Kitchen with dinette
• Split bedroom plan

Tags

• MASTER BATHROOM
• SPLIT BEDROOM PLAN
• LIVING DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN WITH DINETTE
• BACKS TO WOODS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $221k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $305 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (6.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (6.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.3% in Mount Dora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#244 in FL, #3,860 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, housing A-; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lake (suburban): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #37 of 73 in FL (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 639 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,799 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (814 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $221k implies a 1928% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,444 (6.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.91%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,120
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2060 Lamplight Cir	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-8%)	11mo	$75,000	$65	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,449
• Equity at exit: $32,952

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-13,452
• Equity at exit: $19,108

Cash invested: $61,880 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32757

• Home prices YoY: -34.5%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 639
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,064 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,159
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $899/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $305

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,678

Max offer price $221,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,250
• Closing costs: $6,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2507 Koji ST Mt Dora, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$2,271	$2.36	2d	9	0.91mi
2280 Waterfall Ct Unit 4-302 Mt Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	1305	$1,795	$1.38	18d	1	0.94mi
1127 E 11th Ave Mount Dora, FL	3.0	2.0	1226	$2,600	$2.12	24d	1	1.14mi
1006 E 11th Ave Mount Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	1390	$2,500	$1.80	15d	1	1.22mi
1422 N Tremain St Unit 1422 Mt Dora, FL	2.0	1.5	750	$2,000	$2.67	24d	1	1.40mi
1423 N Tremain St Mount Dora, FL	3.0	2.0	1096	$1,745	$1.59	24d	1	1.42mi
502 N Simpson St Mount Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,785	$1.61	22d	1	1.48mi
501 N Simpson St Mount Dora, FL	2.0	2.0	960	$1,700	$1.77	24d	1	1.50mi
949 N Grandview St Mount Dora, FL	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,100	$1.79	4d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $221,000 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $221,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $225,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $225,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    remarks 216-char remark
12. 2026-06-02
    listed $225,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $899 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,834 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: +$935/yr (+$78/mo · 104.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,379
• − Property taxes: −$899
• − Insurance: −$1,105
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,982
• − Management: −$1,982
• − Depreciation: −$6,429
• Taxable loss: −$3
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1
• After-tax cash flow: $3,660/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake
• NCES district ID: 1201050
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $46,632
• Composite: 42.05/100
• National rank: #3327
• State rank: #37 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mount Dora

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #244
• US rank: #3860

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 34,121
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,121
• Household income: $77,216
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 998.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 386,640 people
• By 2030: 417,107 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 476,676 · +23.3%
• By 2050: 531,296 · +37.4%
• By 2075: 648,303 · +67.7%
• By 2100: 698,530 · +80.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 20% Black 12% Two or more races 11% Pacific Islander 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 7% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 14% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.7) · D 37.3% · R 62.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.5pp · 2024: -24.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.7 2020: R+20.0 2016: R+23.1 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+13.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.69%
• Current HPI: 293.4759
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1964.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $225,000 FSBO.com
• 1992-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $899 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.