4104 11th St E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$195,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 2020 3,311 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity to put a brand new home on this lot. 55+ land owned community. Buyer responsible to remove home. This lot is large enough for a double wide. Low HOA of only $456 annually. Plenty of activities. Close to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet, restaurants, medical facilities and beautiful Gulf beach's. Come join the Tideuve Life Style Today!

Key facts

• Affordable hoa
• Sun filled lot
• 9 foot ceilings

Tags

• SUN FILLED LOT
• MOVE IN READY
• 9 FOOT CEILINGS
• DRYWALL WALLS
• BRIGHT LIVING SPACES
• AFFORDABLE HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Total acreage under 1/4 acre (approx. 0.08 acres)
• HOA & community: Has HOA (annual fee $600 / $50 monthly) with required approval; Association amenities include pool, fitness center, laundry, park; deed restrictions; buyer approval required; golf carts allowed; association recreation owned; Pets allowed (dogs OK); Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); One level; Faces west; Residential property
• Construction: Built with other construction materials; Roof over; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Concrete road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Window treatments; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $554 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn Elementary School (math 62% / reading 42%, grade C-, #990 of 2,144 statewide, top 48%, 551 students, 78% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 51% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,454/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $195k implies a 712% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $122,880
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4212 13th St E	0.17mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	90
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.15mi	2/2.0	963 (+0%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	89
1005 45th Ave E	0.24mi	2/2.0	960 (0%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	85
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	79
1204 43rd Ave E	0.17mi	2/2.0	903 (-6%)	4mo	$73,500	$81	79
1432 41st Ave E	0.27mi	2/1.5	1,000 (+4%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	76
4207 13th St E	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	75
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+5%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	73
4119 13th St E	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	7mo	$109,000	$103	71
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	67
4508 14th St E	0.35mi	2/2.0	1,056 (+10%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	65
4208 13th St E	0.16mi	2/2.0	1,086 (+13%)	14mo	$190,000	$175	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,720
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $48,883
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,454 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$231 /mo · $2,770/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$515
• Net cashflow: $554

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $664	-5% $609	+0% $554	+5% $498	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $360	-5% $457	+0% $554	+5% $651	+10% $747
Rate	-1.0pp $652	-0.5pp $603	base $554	+0.5pp $503	+1.0pp $452

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.41mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	4d	13	0.55mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	4d	1	0.65mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	4d	15	0.71mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 137 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,000 Active 134 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 127 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 126 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-04-07
    price $195,000
16. 2026-03-11
    price $198,000
17. 2026-01-27
    listed $200,000 Active
18. 2019-04-10
    soldstatus $24,000 Sold 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Great opportunity to put a brand new home on this lot. 55+ land owned community. Buyer responsible to remove home. This lot is large enough for a double wide. Low HOA of only $456 annually. Plenty of activities. Close to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet, restaurants, medical facilities and beautiful Gulf beach's. Come join the Tideuve Life Style Today!

19. 2019-03-21
    status Pending 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Great opportunity to put a brand new home on this lot. 55+ land owned community. Buyer responsible to remove home. This lot is large enough for a double wide. Low HOA of only $456 annually. Plenty of activities. Close to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet, restaurants, medical facilities and beautiful Gulf beach's. Come join the Tideuve Life Style Today!

20. 2019-03-18
    listed $24,900 Active 351-char remark

    Show marketing remark (351 chars)

    Great opportunity to put a brand new home on this lot. 55+ land owned community. Buyer responsible to remove home. This lot is large enough for a double wide. Low HOA of only $456 annually. Plenty of activities. Close to I-75, Ellenton Premium Outlet, restaurants, medical facilities and beautiful Gulf beach's. Come join the Tideuve Life Style Today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,770 · $231/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,442
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$2,770
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,355
• − Management: −$2,355
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $3,791
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$910
• After-tax cash flow: $5,733/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+683.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $198,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Listed $200,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-10 Sold (MLS) $24,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-03-18 Listed $24,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+13.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,770 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.