4028 Carefree Ln · McBride, OK 73439

$225,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Manufactured public records · 207 Days on market

Built 2000 0.76 ac lot Est $247k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home sits on a treed corner lot. Plenty of room to build a shop or extra storage. Home is within 1 mile to Alberta Creek Marina and Lake Texoma. Outdoor stand up storm cellar, small shed and large covered back deck to accommodate a good sized group.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Covered front deck
• Outdoor storm cellar

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• STORAGE SHED
• OUTDOOR STORM CELLAR
• SANDY SHORELINE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $198k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Kingston (rural): math 27% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #70 of 270 in OK (top 26%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 435 active listings in the ZIP; 42 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Marshall County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 207 days — a 12% lower offer ($198k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $225k implies a 73% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 207 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.04%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $246,960
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4028 Carefree Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	1mo	$209,000	$124	99
4226 Carefree	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-7%)	19mo	$230,000	$147	64
7824 Tribal Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	22mo	$251,000	$149	64
4099 Deer Trl	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,680 (0%)	22mo	$299,000	$178	61
4578 Golden Way	0.55mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,696 (+1%)	9mo	$135,000	$80	58
7597 Winding Path	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-14%)	21mo	$228,000	$158	32
4616 Golden Way	0.64mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,456 (-13%)	13mo	$185,000	$127	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $149,361
• Equity at exit: $202,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.64×
• Total profit: $418,559
• Equity at exit: $437,126

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 73439

• Home prices YoY: 12.3%
• Active inventory: 435
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,287 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,334/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,753

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $550	-5% $486	+0% $422	+5% $359	+10% $295
Rent	-10% $242	-5% $332	+0% $422	+5% $513	+10% $603
Rate	-1.0pp $536	-0.5pp $479	base $422	+0.5pp $364	+1.0pp $305

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-02
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2020-08-31
   soldstatus $130,000 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   This manufactured home sits on a treed corner lot. Plenty of room to build a shop or extra storage. Home is within 1 mile to Alberta Creek Marina and Lake Texoma. Outdoor stand up storm cellar, small shed and large covered back deck to accommodate a good sized group.

4. 2020-06-09
   listed $139,000 267-char remark

   Show marketing remark (267 chars)

   This manufactured home sits on a treed corner lot. Plenty of room to build a shop or extra storage. Home is within 1 mile to Alberta Creek Marina and Lake Texoma. Outdoor stand up storm cellar, small shed and large covered back deck to accommodate a good sized group.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,334 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,025 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$691/yr (+$58/mo · 51.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,449
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,334
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,196
• − Management: −$2,196
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $1,449
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$348
• After-tax cash flow: $4,719/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingston
• NCES district ID: 4016590
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,655
• Composite: 24.88/100
• National rank: #7585
• State rank: #70 of 270 in OK

Livability — McBride

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,011

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,405 people
• By 2030: 18,038 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 19,513 · +12.1%
• By 2050: 21,283 · +22.3%
• By 2075: 27,884 · +60.2%
• By 2100: 35,435 · +103.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 16% Native American 5% Hispanic / Latino 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.4) · D 17.7% · R 81.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -38.8pp · 2024: -63.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.4 2020: R+62.5 2016: R+56.6 2012: R+45.7 2008: R+38.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.96%
• Current HPI: 246.2253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+61.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-10-02 Listed $225,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-08-31 Sold (MLS) $130,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2020-06-09 Listed $139,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,334 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.