Pecan Plan · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$244,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily · 540 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

With enough space for the whole family, the Pecan floor plan will not disappoint. Upon entering your new home, you are greeted by a foyer area that is equipped with your convenient utility room, storage closet, and an entrance to your two-car garage. Needing more storage for tools, holiday decorations, or another car? Decide to upgrade to a two-and-a-half-car garage or even a three-car garage! Travel down the hallway where you are met with your expansive family room and dining room combination - perfect for entertaining guests for dinner parties, holidays, or any other occasion! Right off the living room lies your secondary and third bedrooms with the full secondary bathroom residing in between the two bedrooms. Past the dining area is your spacious kitchen area complete with access to your pantry, and contains sleek granite countertops, flat-panel birch cabinets, industry-leading appliances, and designer light fixtures that is sure to please any eye! Leading from the kitchen is access to your backyard with the option to include an extensive covered patio for you to enjoy backyard barbecues on. When it's time to rest, head over to your private master suite. Your master bathroom boasts cultured marble countertops, a large super shower, and a huge walk-in closet! The Pecan plan is perfect for most any lifestyle, no matter what phase of life you are in. Each CastleRock home is Energy Star Certified and is built with energy-efficient features that help keep you comfortable. ..

Key facts

• Storage closet
• Powder room
• Two car garage

Tags

• FOYER AREA
• POWDER ROOM
• STORAGE CLOSET
• TWO CAR GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM COMBINATION

🏗️ New construction. The $244,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $277,285.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-336 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.1% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia El (math 22% / reading 28%, grade F, #3,013 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 649 students, 64% FRL); Magnolia J H (math 35% / reading 37%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 1,103 students, 57% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL).
• Market conditions: 228 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 540 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $200,000 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 540 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,285
• List price: $244,990
• Delta: -11.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4016 Colony River Rock Blvd	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,635 (+4%)	5mo	$249,990	$153	88
3007 Wicker Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,641 (+4%)	8mo	$259,990	$158	75
4558 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,518 (-3%)	5mo	$246,990	$163	71
4225 Red Cedar Ring Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,465 (-7%)	11mo	$259,990	$177	69
4067 Colony River Rock Blvd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,802 (+15%)	3mo	$285,000	$158	66
4535 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,442 (-8%)	2mo	$235,000	$163	65
35607 Fm 149 Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,792 (+14%)	2mo	$414,000	$231	64
2971 Colonia Blossom Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-11%)	7mo	$245,990	$176	62
4642 Coral Bean St	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,657 (+6%)	2mo	$273,990	$165	62
4519 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,395 (-11%)	6mo	$234,990	$168	58
4515 Pinehurst Trace Dr	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+13%)	6mo	$277,990	$157	53
4418 Azalea Blossom Rd	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,768 (+13%)	8mo	$264,990	$150	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-66,318
• Equity at exit: $41,344

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.10×
• Total profit: $-85,203
• Equity at exit: $23,975

Cash invested: $77,640 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 42 active · 9 under contract
• Months of supply: 28.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $275,990 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 143 d
• This list price: 14% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.7% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 228
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,454
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$347 /mo · $4,159/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-336

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,426

Max offer price $228,628

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-145	-5% $-240	+0% $-336	+5% $-432	+10% $-528
Rent	-10% $-494	-5% $-415	+0% $-336	+5% $-257	+10% $-178
Rate	-1.0pp $-197	-0.5pp $-266	base $-336	+0.5pp $-408	+1.0pp $-481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,321
• Closing costs: $8,319
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4311 Maple Root Ln Pinehurst, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,000	$1.33	139d	1	0.29mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $244,990 Active 540 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $244,990 Active 539 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $244,990 Active 538 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $244,990 Active 537 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $244,990 Active 536 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $244,990 Active 534 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $244,990 Active 533 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $244,990 Active 532 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $244,990 Active 531 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 530 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 529 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 528 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 522 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 521 DOM
15. 2026-09-02
    days on market $244,990 Active 519 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 517 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 516 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $244,990 Active 515 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 514 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $244,990 Active 513 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $244,990 Active 511 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 510 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 509 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 508 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 507 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 506 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $244,990 Active 505 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $244,990 Active 504 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $244,990 Active 503 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $244,990 Active 502 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $244,990 Active 501 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $244,990 Active 500 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $244,990 Active 499 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $244,990 Active 498 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $244,990 Active 497 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $244,990 Active 496 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $244,990 Active 495 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $244,990 Active 494 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $244,990 Active 492 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $244,990 Active 491 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $244,990 Active 490 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $244,990 Active 489 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $244,990 Active 486 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $244,990 Active 484 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $244,990 Active 483 DOM
46. 2026-07-24
    days on market $244,990 Active 479 DOM
47. 2026-07-23
    days on market $244,990 Active 478 DOM
48. 2026-07-22
    days on market $244,990 Active 477 DOM
49. 2026-07-21
    days on market $244,990 Active 476 DOM
50. 2026-07-20
    days on market $244,990 Active 475 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,532
• − Property taxes: −$4,159
• − Insurance: −$1,386
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$8,066
• Taxable loss: −$8,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a good balance of modern amenities and a well-maintained exterior, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can add value ↑
• Both Replace carpet with hardwood flooring — Improves aesthetics and increases value ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Enhances convenience and can attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Magnolia El F TX #3,013/4,322 Nat'l #29,899/41,679 Middle Magnolia J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Magnolia H S C- TX #379/1,632 Nat'l #4,461/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

D Composite livability gradescore 55/100

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• County: Montgomery · 713,896 people
• Metro: Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,474
• Household income: $80,982
• Rent vs Own: 12.1% rent · 87.9% own

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-04-01 Listed $244,990 Zillow