45 Justice · Phelps, KY 41553

$82,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1982 0.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 2 bath home on nice, fenced lot. Home has oversized garage, walk through closets, metal roof, and more. Call to schedule your showing.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Walk through closets
• Fenced lot

Tags

• FENCED LOT
• OVERSIZED GARAGE
• WALK THROUGH CLOSETS
• METAL ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $254 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#504 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Day Treatment (math 24% / reading 24%, 14 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $868 of equity ($570 loan paydown + $298 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $82k implies a 65% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,025 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.34% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.62%
• DSCR: 1.74
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $15,192
• Equity at exit: $25,455

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.02×
• Total profit: $46,655
• Equity at exit: $31,821

Cash invested: $23,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41553

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,106 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$433
• Tax from tax record: −$86 /mo · $1,037/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $254

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $82,500

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $300	-5% $277	+0% $254	+5% $230	+10% $207
Rent	-10% $166	-5% $210	+0% $254	+5% $297	+10% $341
Rate	-1.0pp $295	-0.5pp $275	base $254	+0.5pp $232	+1.0pp $210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,625
• Closing costs: $2,475
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2 bath home on nice, fenced lot. Home has oversized garage, walk through closets, metal roof, and more. Call to schedule your showing.

2. 2026-04-21
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2 bath home on nice, fenced lot. Home has oversized garage, walk through closets, metal roof, and more. Call to schedule your showing.

3. 2026-03-17
   listed $82,500 Active 145-char remark

   Show marketing remark (145 chars)

   3-bedroom, 2 bath home on nice, fenced lot. Home has oversized garage, walk through closets, metal roof, and more. Call to schedule your showing.

4. 2026-03-14
   listed $82,500 Active
5. 2022-12-05
   soldstatus $50,000
6. 2018-07-27
   soldstatus $42,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,037 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,268
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,621
• − Property taxes: −$1,037
• − Insurance: −$1,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,061
• − Management: −$1,061
• − Depreciation: −$2,400
• Taxable income: $1,876
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$450
• After-tax cash flow: $2,592/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Phelps

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #25548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phelps, KY
• Population (ZIP): 2,324

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.36%
• Current HPI: 119.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+96.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — EKAR
• 2026-04-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed $82,500 EKAR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $82,500 ImagineMLS
• 2022-12-05 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $42,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,037 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.