409 Miller Rd · Newell, PA 15478

$27,500

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,664 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1900 7,840 sqft lot ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Investor Special in Newell! This 4-bedroom, 1-bath home offers plenty of potential for investors, flippers, or handy owner-occupants. Features include off-street parking and a functional floor plan with ample living space. The property is in need of cosmetic updates and mechanical improvements, making it an excellent opportunity to add value and build equity. Whether you're looking for your next renovation project or a buy-and-hold investment, this property offers strong upside potential at an affordable entry point.

Key facts

• Ample living space
• Cosmetic updates
• Off-street parking

Tags

• OFF-STREET PARKING
• FUNCTIONAL FLOOR PLAN
• AMPLE LIVING SPACE
• COSMETIC UPDATES
• MECHANICAL IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No additional financial amenities provided
• Financial info: Financial details not included
• HOA & community: Public transportation access nearby

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Security: No security features specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Two-story frame house; Asphalt roof; Resale property
• Construction: Frame construction; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 0.18 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Main-level kitchen (approx. 15x12)
• Bedrooms: Upper-level bedrooms (three bedrooms: approx. 12x11, 12x12, 12x9); Additional upper-level room approx. 12x12 (may be used as bedroom)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Has basement; Carpet and vinyl flooring
• Laundry & utility: Utility spaces not specified

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#1,104 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety D, schools F.
• Frazier SD (rural): math 25% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #371 of 539 in PA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 201 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($190 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Fayette County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $27,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 131.21%
• DSCR: 6.84
• GRM: 1.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $146,432
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
424 4th St	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,728 (+4%)	18mo	$199,900	$116	64
324 Wood St	0.72mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,557 (-6%)	4mo	$52,000	$33	45
306 4th St	0.69mi	5/1.5 (+1)	1,798 (+8%)	19mo	$159,000	$88	34
227 1st St	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,416 (-15%)	14mo	$104,000	$73	34
897 Highpoint Dr	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,876 (+13%)	21mo	$215,000	$115	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.58% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.70×
• Total profit: $59,327
• Equity at exit: $14,886

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.32×
• Total profit: $133,352
• Equity at exit: $25,132

Cash invested: $7,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 15478

• Home prices YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 1.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,306 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$144
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$11
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $241

Max offer price $27,500

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,875
• Closing costs: $825
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
54 Temperance Way Unit 7 California, PA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,095	$0.84	15d	1	0.47mi
115 1st St Unit 1 California, PA	3.0	1.0	1200	$950	$0.79	44d	1	0.47mi
214 3rd St California, PA	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,650	$1.00	21d	1	0.61mi
456 Second St Unit 1 California, PA	4.0	2.0	1451	$1,500	$1.03	44d	1	0.68mi
319 5th St California, PA	4.0	2.0	1369	$1,395	$1.02	24d	1	0.80mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $27,500 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 522-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $27,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,676
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,540
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$138
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,254
• − Management: −$1,254
• − Depreciation: −$800
• Taxable income: $10,277
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,467
• After-tax cash flow: $7,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Frazier SD
• NCES district ID: 4210350
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $46,463
• Composite: 32.8/100
• National rank: #5628
• State rank: #371 of 539 in PA

Livability — Newell

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #1104
• US rank: #12551

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Newell, PA
• City population: 437
• Population (ZIP): 5,679

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 127,561 people
• By 2030: 123,206 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 113,232 · -11.2%
• By 2050: 103,468 · -18.9%
• By 2075: 83,185 · -34.8%
• By 2100: 62,384 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.9) · D 30.8% · R 68.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.5pp toward R · 2008: -0.4pp · 2024: -37.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.9 2020: R+33.5 2016: R+31.0 2012: R+8.3 2008: R+0.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.58%
• Current HPI: 235.5887
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-17.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $27,500 West Penn MLS
• 2015-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 1999-11-30 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,559 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.