4124 Old Jonesboro Rd · Bristol, TN 37620

$220,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1993 Est $250k · 12% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investors/first time home owners: Don't miss this 2 bedroom, 1 bath on a level lot with fully fenced back yard with half acre plus. Newer architectural shingle roof (approx. 5 years old) and newer water heater. Enjoy country living in the city! Convenient to all that historic Bristol has to offer. Call listing agent for showing appointments. This listing won't last long!

Key facts

• New metal roof
• New heat pump
• New water heater

Tags

• FULLY FENCED BACK YARD
• NEW METAL ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• NEW HEAT PUMP
• KITCHEN REMODEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $27 ($321/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.8% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#24 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D+, commute F.
• Bristol (urban): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #29 of 139 in TN (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 253 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $79k; list at $220k implies a 178% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $176,153 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.52%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $249,900
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
152 Wilkshire Pl	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-4%)	23mo	$240,000	$238	61
140 West Wilkshire Pl	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,196 (+14%)	6mo	$276,000	$231	59
236 Hunter Hls #2	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+12%)	9mo	$180,000	$153	59
108 Melody Ln Unit C1	0.72mi	2/1.0	1,104 (+5%)	17mo	$1,000	$1	44
1252 Old Jonesboro Rd	0.75mi	2/1.0	1,140 (+9%)	9mo	$208,300	$183	43
205 Kingsley Down Dr	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,169 (+11%)	20mo	$287,000	$246	42
216 Brighton Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	13mo	$289,000	$241	32
125 Brighton Pl	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	12mo	$285,000	$238	32
129 Brighton Pl	0.52mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	13mo	$285,000	$238	32
166 Brighton Pl	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+14%)	22mo	$286,900	$239	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-34,015
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,707
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37620

• Active inventory: 253
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,762 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,434/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $27

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,728

Max offer price $220,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
254 Wildwood Dr Bristol, TN	3.0	1.5	1200	$1,550	$1.29	13d	1	0.99mi
221 Monroe Dr Bristol, TN	3.0	2.0	1282	$2,650	$2.07	20d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-13
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-05-12
   listed $220,000 Active
3. 2018-08-01
   soldstatus $79,200
4. 2018-07-31
   soldstatus $79,200 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Investors/first time home owners: Don't miss this 2 bedroom, 1 bath on a level lot with fully fenced back yard with half acre plus. Newer architectural shingle roof (approx. 5 years old) and newer water heater. Enjoy country living in the city! Convenient to all that historic Bristol has to offer. Call listing agent for showing appointments. This listing won't last long!

5. 2018-04-19
   listed $86,000 373-char remark

   Show marketing remark (373 chars)

   Investors/first time home owners: Don't miss this 2 bedroom, 1 bath on a level lot with fully fenced back yard with half acre plus. Newer architectural shingle roof (approx. 5 years old) and newer water heater. Enjoy country living in the city! Convenient to all that historic Bristol has to offer. Call listing agent for showing appointments. This listing won't last long!

6. 1997-07-01
   soldstatus $25,000
7. 1978-04-06
   soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,434 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,562 · $130/mo
• Expected delta: +$128/yr (+$11/mo · 8.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,138
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$1,434
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,691
• − Management: −$1,691
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$3,501
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$840
• After-tax cash flow: $1,161/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol
• NCES district ID: 4700360
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $37,018
• Composite: 29.95/100
• National rank: #6376
• State rank: #29 of 139 in TN

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #5413

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 38,494
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,494
• Household income: $56,128
• Rent vs Own: 27.8% rent · 72.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -294.12%
• Current HPI: 263.38
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+856.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $220,000 FSBO.com
• 2018-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $79,200 Public Records
• 2018-07-31 Sold (MLS) $79,200 TVRMLS
• 2018-04-19 Listed $86,000 TVRMLS
• 1997-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records
• 1978-04-06 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,434 · +44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.