1537 Lake Rd · Hamlin, NY 14464

$95,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,493 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1900 8,276 sqft lot ↓ 55% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This is an "AS IS" sale of residence. Interior and exterior need TLC. It is located on the main road in Hamlin. 4 bedrooms and big living room and dining room. This could be fixed up and be a forever home. Outside garage is in tough shape. Must have 24 hour notice to show, occupied.

Key facts

• 8,276 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1900

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 4.1% in Hamlin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#557 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: employment C-, crime D, schools F.
• Brockport Central School District (town): math 45% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #369 of 590 in NY (top 62%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.51%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $252,317
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13 Hillcrest Dr	0.16mi	4/1.5	1,630 (+9%)	7mo	$325,000	$199	71
1400 Lake Rd	0.30mi	4/1.5	1,544 (+3%)	11mo	$175,000	$113	71
47 Alderbush Ln	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,442 (-3%)	2mo	$265,000	$184	57
1363 Lake Rd	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,581 (+6%)	10mo	$226,500	$143	56
56 Alder Bush Ln	0.70mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,550 (+4%)	0mo	$285,000	$184	56
37 Highview Dr	0.68mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,442 (-3%)	2mo	$165,000	$114	56
24 Highview Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,466 (-2%)	16mo	$225,000	$153	49
32 Highview Dr	0.68mi	4/1.5	1,408 (-6%)	12mo	$250,000	$178	49
1704 Apple Hollow Ln	0.22mi	4/2.0	1,708 (+14%)	21mo	$287,000	$168	46
3026 Roosevelt Hwy	0.50mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,289 (-14%)	12mo	$217,250	$169	37
109 Beehler Ln Unit B	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,629 (+9%)	19mo	$282,000	$173	29
528 Leona Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,713 (+15%)	17mo	$232,500	$136	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,203
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.18×
• Total profit: $31,359
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14464

• Home prices YoY: -15.0%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$264 /mo · $3,165/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,015

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2024-11-15
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-06
   listed $95,000 Active
3. 2001-11-21
   soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,165 · $264/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,165 · $264/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,061
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$3,165
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,365
• − Management: −$1,365
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$625
• After-tax cash flow: $3,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brockport Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3605580
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,571
• Composite: 43.28/100
• National rank: #3044
• State rank: #369 of 590 in NY

Livability — Hamlin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #557
• US rank: #10030

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A Crime D Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hamlin, NY
• Population (ZIP): 6,725

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.89%
• Current HPI: 248.1985
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-54.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2024-11-15 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-11-06 Listed $95,000 UNYREIS
• 2001-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,165 · -28.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.