14 Winchester Cir · Swartz, LA 71203

$240,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,488 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 63 Days on market

Built 1979 0.35 ac lot $96/sqft · at area comps Est $261k · 8% under ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 14 Winchester Circle in Monroe! This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable everyday living. The functional layout features generous living areas that work well for both daily routines and entertaining guests. Just off the back of the home, you’ll find a sunroom that overlooks the backyard—an inviting space to enjoy morning coffee, unwind with a good book, or take in the view of the outdoors. Step outside to the fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, playtime, or relaxing evenings outdoors. A storage shed provides extra space for tools and outdoor equipment, while the two-car garage offers convenient parking along with additional storage options. With its spacious layout, practical features, and versatile living spaces, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for comfort and functionality in Monroe.

Key facts

• Sunroom
• Storage shed
• Fenced-in backyard

Tags

• SUNROOM
• FENCED-IN BACKYARD
• STORAGE SHED
• TWO-CAR GARAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-107 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $191k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#184 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, health & safety D.
• Ouachita Parish (suburban): math 31% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #26 of 98 in LA (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 437 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 345 units permitted in Ouachita Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 69% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,455 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $261,269
• List price: $240,000
• Delta: -8.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Winchester Cir	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,218 (-11%)	7mo	$200,000	$90	63
120 Cambridge Dr	0.31mi	4/2.5	2,320 (-7%)	13mo	$226,000	$97	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-45,691
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,531
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71203

• Home prices YoY: -32.4%
• Active inventory: 437
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$261 /mo · $3,129/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-107

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,050

Max offer price $221,123

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
396 Rowland Rd Monroe, LA	4.0	2.5	2226	$2,500	$1.12	43d	1	0.68mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $240,000 Pending 63 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $240,000 Active 54 DOM
9. 2026-05-13
   status Active 911-char remark

   Show marketing remark (911 chars)

   Welcome to 14 Winchester Circle in Monroe! This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable everyday living. The functional layout features generous living areas that work well for both daily routines and entertaining guests. Just off the back of the home, you’ll find a sunroom that overlooks the backyard—an inviting space to enjoy morning coffee, unwind with a good book, or take in the view of the outdoors. Step outside to the fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, playtime, or relaxing evenings outdoors. A storage shed provides extra space for tools and outdoor equipment, while the two-car garage offers convenient parking along with additional storage options. With its spacious layout, practical features, and versatile living spaces, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for comfort and functionality in Monroe.

10. 2026-04-17
    status Pending 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Welcome to 14 Winchester Circle in Monroe! This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable everyday living. The functional layout features generous living areas that work well for both daily routines and entertaining guests. Just off the back of the home, you’ll find a sunroom that overlooks the backyard—an inviting space to enjoy morning coffee, unwind with a good book, or take in the view of the outdoors. Step outside to the fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, playtime, or relaxing evenings outdoors. A storage shed provides extra space for tools and outdoor equipment, while the two-car garage offers convenient parking along with additional storage options. With its spacious layout, practical features, and versatile living spaces, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for comfort and functionality in Monroe.

11. 2026-03-12
    listed $240,000 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (911 chars)

    Welcome to 14 Winchester Circle in Monroe! This spacious two-story home offers 4 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, providing plenty of room for comfortable everyday living. The functional layout features generous living areas that work well for both daily routines and entertaining guests. Just off the back of the home, you’ll find a sunroom that overlooks the backyard—an inviting space to enjoy morning coffee, unwind with a good book, or take in the view of the outdoors. Step outside to the fenced-in backyard, perfect for pets, playtime, or relaxing evenings outdoors. A storage shed provides extra space for tools and outdoor equipment, while the two-car garage offers convenient parking along with additional storage options. With its spacious layout, practical features, and versatile living spaces, this home offers a great opportunity for buyers looking for comfort and functionality in Monroe.

12. 2025-12-11
    price $239,000
13. 2025-10-17
    listed $249,000 Active
14. 2024-03-11
    price $240,000
15. 2024-02-22
    listed $250,000 Active
16. 2022-10-31
    soldstatus $230,000
17. 2022-10-28
    soldstatus Closed
18. 2022-09-08
    status Pending
19. 2022-09-06
    price $235,000
20. 2022-08-29
    price $245,000
21. 2022-08-23
    price $255,000
22. 2022-08-15
    listed $265,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,129 · $261/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,129 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 69% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,975
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,129
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,838
• − Management: −$1,838
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$5,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,309
• After-tax cash flow: $27/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ouachita Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201200
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $43,316
• Composite: 32.14/100
• National rank: #5791
• State rank: #26 of 98 in LA

Livability — Swartz

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #14862

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Swartz, LA
• County: Ouachita Parish · 118,340 people
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• Population (ZIP): 38,354
• Household income: $52,326
• Rent vs Own: 43.7% rent · 56.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2085.0

Population outlook (Ouachita County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 163,370 people
• By 2030: 165,520 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 167,652 · +2.6%
• By 2050: 166,699 · +2.0%
• By 2075: 156,348 · -4.3%
• By 2100: 134,102 · -17.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 48% White 45% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ouachita

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.5% · R 63.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.2pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+23.6 2016: R+25.4 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+25.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.01%
• Current HPI: 206.1948
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Monroe, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-9.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — NELABOR
• 2026-04-17 Pending — NELABOR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $240,000 NELABOR
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $239,000 NELABOR
• 2025-10-17 Listed $249,000 NELABOR
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $240,000 NELABOR
• 2024-02-22 Listed $250,000 NELABOR
• 2022-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2022-10-28 Sold (MLS) — NELABOR
• 2022-09-08 Pending — NELABOR
• 2022-09-06 Price Changed $235,000 NELABOR
• 2022-08-29 Price Changed $245,000 NELABOR
• 2022-08-23 Price Changed $255,000 NELABOR
• 2022-08-15 Listed $265,000 NELABOR

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,129 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.