431 Lakeshore Cir · Mulga, AL 35005

$82,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,172 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1938 7,405 sqft lot $70/sqft · 19% below area Est $113k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FOR COMPS PURPOSES

Key facts

• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1938

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $82k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $298 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $82k).
• Recommended offer: $81k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#467 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime D-, amenities F.
• Jefferson County (suburban): math 9% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #104 of 129 in AL (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $567 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($81k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 12% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,770 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.55%
• DSCR: 1.69
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $113,428
• List price: $82,000
• Delta: -27.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
431 Lakeshore Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,172 (0%)	0mo	$73,000	$62	95
325 Cypress Ave	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,160 (-1%)	12mo	$55,000	$47	77
204 Railroad Ave	0.24mi	2/1.0	1,204 (+3%)	9mo	$140,500	$117	76
439 Lakeshore Cir	0.03mi	2/1.0	1,023 (-13%)	1mo	$120,400	$118	76
222 Pine Ave	0.15mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,140 (-3%)	6mo	$144,500	$127	75
334 Railroad Ave	0.07mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,258 (+7%)	20mo	$108,000	$86	63
126 Front St	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,108 (-6%)	11mo	$79,900	$72	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.25×
• Total profit: $5,646
• Equity at exit: $12,226

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $29,245
• Equity at exit: $7,090

Cash invested: $22,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35005

• Home prices YoY: -3.9%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,024 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$430
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $647

Max offer price $82,000

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $344	-5% $321	+0% $298	+5% $274	+10% $251
Rent	-10% $217	-5% $257	+0% $298	+5% $338	+10% $378
Rate	-1.0pp $339	-0.5pp $318	base $298	+0.5pp $276	+1.0pp $255

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,500
• Closing costs: $2,460
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
439 Lakeshore Cir Adamsville, AL	2.0	1.0	1023	$1,000	$0.98	44d	1	0.04mi
213 Front St Adamsville, AL	2.0	1.0	924	$1,000	$1.08	20d	1	0.52mi
4329 Maple Cir Adamsville, AL	3.0	2.0	1236	$1,225	$0.99	24d	1	1.25mi
4455 Middle St Mulga, AL	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	2d	1	1.40mi
4508 Maple Cir Adamsville, AL	3.0	1.0	975	$1,095	$1.12	4d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-01
   days on market $82,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $82,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-05
   listed $88,000 Active 329-char remark
4. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $100,000
5. 2023-04-06
   soldstatus $100,000 Sold 453-char remark
6. 2023-02-16
   status Pending 453-char remark
7. 2023-02-07
   listed $105,000 Active 453-char remark
8. 2023-01-24
   historical $105,000 453-char remark
9. 2021-05-20
   soldstatus $24,200 Sold
10. 2021-04-14
    historical Contingent
11. 2021-03-29
    price $22,900
12. 2021-03-02
    price $29,900
13. 2021-01-26
    price $37,900
14. 2020-12-29
    price $47,900
15. 2020-11-16
    listed $54,900 Active
16. 1977-11-01
    soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,289
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,593
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$410
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$983
• − Management: −$983
• − Depreciation: −$2,385
• Taxable income: $2,367
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$568
• After-tax cash flow: $3,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 0101920
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,712
• Composite: 18.4/100
• National rank: #8937
• State rank: #104 of 129 in AL

Livability — Mulga

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #467
• US rank: #24018

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mulga, AL
• Population (ZIP): 8,143

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% White 38% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.72%
• Current HPI: 237.5788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+247.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $73,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $73,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $82,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-06 Sold (MLS) $100,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-16 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-02-07 Listed $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2023-01-24 Coming Soon $105,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-05-20 Sold (MLS) $24,200 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-04-14 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-29 Price Changed $22,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-03-02 Price Changed $29,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2021-01-26 Price Changed $37,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-12-29 Price Changed $47,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2020-11-16 Listed $54,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 1977-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $567 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.