16966 S 72nd EastAvenue · Bixby, OK 74008

$321,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,314 sqft · SingleFamily · 137 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 7,800 sqft lot 2-car garage $139/sqft · 15% below area Est $379k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• Cash flow +8.7/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW CONSTRUCTION * * The Holden | 4 bedroom | 2 Bath | Single-Story * * The Holden is a spacious single-story home featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. A long, inviting foyer leads you into the open-concept kitchen and breakfast area, perfect for family gatherings and entertaining. The kitchen boasts beautiful countertops, stainless steel appliances, a pantry, and a breakfast bar. One of the standout features of the Holden is the coveted flex room—a versatile space that can be tailored to your needs. Whether it’s a home office, a playroom, or a cozy reading nook, the flex room offers endless possibilities, making it a buyer favorite.

Key facts

• 7,800 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $322k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-695 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $221k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Bixby — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#24 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Bixby (suburban): math 39% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #15 of 270 in OK (top 6%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Bixby North Es (math 72% / reading 57%, grade B, #3 of 845 statewide, top 0%, 716 students, 0% FRL); Bixby Ms (math 37% / reading 30%, grade F, #33 of 345 statewide, top 10%, 1,216 students, 0% FRL); Bixby Hs (math 42% / reading 48%, grade D-, #13 of 447 statewide, top 3%, 2,102 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1085 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 2,818 units permitted in Tulsa County in 2024 (518 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tulsa County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 137 days — a 12% lower offer ($283k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,265 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 137 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.58%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $378,889
• List price: $321,900
• Delta: -15.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13437 S 72nd EastAvenue	0.08mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	2mo	$385,632	$186	75
13315 S 72nd EastPlace	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	2mo	$369,900	$179	70
7233 E 134th St S	0.10mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	8mo	$361,995	$175	69
13147 S 72nd EastAvenue	0.21mi	4/3.0	2,373 (+2%)	17mo	$413,335	$174	68
13155 S 68th EastAvenue	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (-7%)	3mo	$415,000	$192	66
13223 S 68th EastAvenue	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (-7%)	5mo	$415,000	$192	66
13218 S 68th EastAvenue	0.30mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,280 (-2%)	13mo	$415,000	$182	65
6723 E 131st Pl S	0.36mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,305 (-0%)	14mo	$410,000	$178	64
7222 E 132nd St S	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,068 (-11%)	12mo	$374,874	$181	63
7219 E 132nd St S	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,095 (-10%)	18mo	$376,839	$180	59
13234 S 68th East Ave	0.27mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,057 (-11%)	14mo	$405,000	$197	50
13219 S 67th Ave E	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,067 (-11%)	19mo	$370,000	$179	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-95,307
• Equity at exit: $47,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.50×
• Total profit: $-135,301
• Equity at exit: $27,832

Cash invested: $90,132 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 71 active · 24 under contract
• Months of supply: 21.3 mo (5%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $399,900 ($179/sqft)
• Median days on market: 83 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -8.5% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 74008

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1085
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,476 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,688
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$402 /mo · $4,828/yr
• Insurance: −$134
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$520
• Net cashflow: $-695

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,356

Max offer price $221,265

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-473	-5% $-584	+0% $-695	+5% $-807	+10% $-918
Rent	-10% $-891	-5% $-793	+0% $-695	+5% $-598	+10% $-500
Rate	-1.0pp $-533	-0.5pp $-614	base $-695	+0.5pp $-779	+1.0pp $-864

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,475
• Closing costs: $9,657
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13441 S 72nd Pl Bixby, OK	4.0	3.0	1926	$2,350	$1.22	9d	1	0.12mi
13135 S 72nd East Ave Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	2095	$2,500	$1.19	9d	1	0.22mi
13126 S 72nd East Pl Bixby, OK	4.0	3.0	1929	$2,300	$1.19	98d	1	0.24mi
6460 E 125th St S Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	1853	$2,600	$1.40	9d	1	0.92mi
12537 S 75th East Ave Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	2088	$2,750	$1.32	9d	1	0.97mi
12420 S Oxford Ave Bixby, OK	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,500	$1.29	0d	1	1.08mi
16236 S 89th E Ave Bixby, OK	3.0	2.0	1864	$2,250	$1.21	63d	1	1.17mi
6303 E 123rd St S Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,315	$1.25	0d	1	1.18mi
8950 E 133rd St S Bixby, OK	4.0	3.0	2207	$2,195	$0.99	115d	1	1.20mi
6316 E 146th St S Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	1785	$2,100	$1.18	119d	1	1.33mi
9320 E 131st Pl S Bixby, OK	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,200	$1.19	80d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual feeCommunity gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas availablePhone availableWater availablePublic sewerRural water
• Home design: Single-storyFaces westSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood frame constructionAsphalt/fiberglass roofBuilt by builderIncludes home warranty
• Exterior features: LandscapingRain guttersCovered patio and porchPatioPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangePlumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Quartz and stone countersHigh-speed internetWired for dataInsulated vinyl windowsProgrammable thermostatGas water heater and tankless water heaterPlumbed for ice makerSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-14
   days on market $321,900 Active 137 DOM
2. 2026-09-13
   days on market $321,900 Active 136 DOM
3. 2026-09-12
   days on market $321,900 Active 135 DOM
4. 2026-09-11
   days on market $321,900 Active 134 DOM
5. 2026-09-05
   days on market $321,900 Active 128 DOM
6. 2026-09-04
   days on market $321,900 Active 127 DOM
7. 2026-09-03
   days on market $321,900 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-08-31
   days on market $321,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-08-29
   days on market $321,900 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-08-28
    days on market $321,900 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-08-27
    days on market $321,900 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-08-26
    days on market $321,900 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-08-25
    days on market $321,900 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-08-24
    days on market $321,900 Active 116 DOM
15. 2026-08-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 115 DOM
16. 2026-08-22
    days on market $321,900 Active 114 DOM
17. 2026-08-21
    days on market $321,900 Active 113 DOM
18. 2026-08-20
    days on market $321,900 Active 112 DOM
19. 2026-08-19
    days on market $321,900 Active 111 DOM
20. 2026-08-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 110 DOM
21. 2026-08-17
    days on market $321,900 Active 109 DOM
22. 2026-08-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 108 DOM
23. 2026-08-15
    days on market $321,900 Active 107 DOM
24. 2026-08-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 106 DOM
25. 2026-08-13
    days on market $321,900 Active 105 DOM
26. 2026-08-12
    days on market $321,900 Active 104 DOM
27. 2026-08-11
    days on market $321,900 Active 103 DOM
28. 2026-08-10
    days on market $321,900 Active 102 DOM
29. 2026-08-09
    days on market $321,900 Active 101 DOM
30. 2026-08-08
    days on market $321,900 Active 100 DOM
31. 2026-08-07
    days on market $321,900 Active 99 DOM
32. 2026-08-06
    days on market $321,900 Active 98 DOM
33. 2026-08-05
    days on market $321,900 Active 97 DOM
34. 2026-08-04
    days on market $321,900 Active 96 DOM
35. 2026-08-03
    days on market $321,900 Active 95 DOM
36. 2026-07-31
    days on market $321,900 Active 92 DOM
37. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,900 Active 91 DOM
38. 2026-07-30
    days on market $321,900 Active 90 DOM
39. 2026-07-28
    days on market $321,900 Active 89 DOM
40. 2026-07-26
    days on market $321,900 Active 87 DOM
41. 2026-07-24
    days on market $321,900 Active 85 DOM
42. 2026-07-23
    days on market $321,900 Active 84 DOM
43. 2026-07-22
    days on market $321,900 Active 83 DOM
44. 2026-07-21
    days on market $321,900 Active 82 DOM
45. 2026-07-20
    days on market $321,900 Active 81 DOM
46. 2026-07-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 79 DOM
47. 2026-07-18
    days on market $321,900 Active 78 DOM
48. 2026-07-16
    days on market $321,900 Active 77 DOM
49. 2026-07-15
    days on market $321,900 Active 76 DOM
50. 2026-07-14
    days on market $321,900 Active 75 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,706
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,031
• − Property taxes: −$4,828
• − Insurance: −$6,728
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,376
• − Management: −$2,376
• − Depreciation: −$9,364
• Taxable loss: −$13,999
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,360
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,986/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a spacious floor plan and modern features, making it an attractive option for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑
• Resale Bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathrooms and appeals to potential buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 48/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bixby North Es B OK #3/845 Nat'l #5,189/41,679 Middle Bixby Ms F OK #33/345 Nat'l #7,937/14,009 High Bixby Hs D- OK #13/447 Nat'l #6,809/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bixby
• NCES district ID: 4004500
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $75,727
• Composite: 34.9/100
• National rank: #5081
• State rank: #15 of 270 in OK

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Bixby

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #6029

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bixby, OK
• County: Tulsa County · 723,846 people
• City population: 389,418
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 34,006
• Household income: $104,000
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 10% of renters

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Population outlook (Tulsa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 723,846 people
• By 2030: 766,033 · +5.8%
• By 2040: 851,386 · +17.6%
• By 2050: 938,389 · +29.6%
• By 2075: 1,166,011 · +61.1%
• By 2100: 1,350,277 · +86.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Two or more races 15% Hispanic / Latino 9% Native American 5% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Tulsa

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.3% · R 56.5% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.2pp toward D · 2008: -24.5pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+22.9 2012: R+27.4 2008: R+24.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -127.20%
• Current HPI: 195.2538
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.34%
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual feeCommunity gutters

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity availableNatural gas availablePhone availableWater availablePublic sewerRural water
• Home design: Single-storyFaces westSlab foundation
• Construction: Brick and wood frame constructionAsphalt/fiberglass roofBuilt by builderIncludes home warranty
• Exterior features: LandscapingRain guttersCovered patio and porchPatioPorch

Interior

• Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalMicrowaveOvenRangePlumbed for ice maker
• Flooring: CarpetTile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilingsCeiling fan(s)Quartz and stone countersHigh-speed internetWired for dataInsulated vinyl windowsProgrammable thermostatGas water heater and tankless water heaterPlumbed for ice makerSmoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Listed $321,900 MLS Technology, Inc.