10902 Seneca St · Houston, TX 77016

$245,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2006 5,449 sqft lot $102/sqft · at area comps Est $252k · at est. $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

Key facts

• 5,449 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-303 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $192k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (19.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 376 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,985/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($48k/yr) (locally 1297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 18y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,534 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.29%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,380
• List price: $245,000
• Delta: -2.92%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10902 Seneca St	0.00mi	3/2.5	2,412 (0%)	23mo	$257,000	$107	80
10821 Seneca St	0.05mi	3/2.0	2,620 (+9%)	6mo	$169,000	$65	76
11110 Homestead Rd	0.33mi	3/3.0	2,376 (-2%)	7mo	$275,000	$116	74
5514 Cedar Hill Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5	2,450 (+2%)	21mo	$263,000	$107	61
10714 Zachary Cove St	0.71mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,328 (-4%)	13mo	$279,995	$120	41
10747 Nyla Spring St	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,636 (+9%)	9mo	$293,995	$112	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.27×
• Total profit: $87,062
• Equity at exit: $197,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.77×
• Total profit: $258,728
• Equity at exit: $402,032

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 376
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,985 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$469 /mo · $5,629/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-303

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,368

Max offer price $191,534

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-164	-5% $-233	+0% $-303	+5% $-372	+10% $-441
Rent	-10% $-459	-5% $-381	+0% $-303	+5% $-224	+10% $-146
Rate	-1.0pp $-179	-0.5pp $-240	base $-303	+0.5pp $-366	+1.0pp $-431

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7426 Bigwood St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1997	$1,850	$0.93	15d	1	1.27mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	9d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 152 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 151 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $245,000 Active 150 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $245,000 Active 149 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $245,000 Active 147 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 142 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $245,000 Active 141 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $245,000 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 134 DOM
12. 2026-05-01
    price $245,000
13. 2026-02-04
    price $255,000
14. 2026-01-16
    listed $265,000 Active
15. 2024-07-12
    soldstatus
16. 2024-07-10
    soldstatus Sold 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

17. 2024-05-22
    status Pending 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

18. 2024-05-17
    status Option Pending 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

19. 2024-05-11
    status Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

20. 2024-05-09
    status Pending, Continue to Show 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

21. 2024-04-27
    status Pending 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

22. 2024-04-19
    status Option Pending 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

23. 2024-04-14
    listed $257,000 Active 743-char remark

    Show marketing remark (743 chars)

    COME ON!! WHAT ARE YOU WAITING FOR?! Well wait no longer!! This charming home is a must-see! Located in a quiet, friendly neighborhood just a short drive from Downtown Houston, this property offers convenience and comfort. As you enter, you'll be greeted by a grand foyer with high ceilings and beautiful archways. The open floor plan and crown molding add a touch of elegance to the space. Upstairs, you'll find a game room that can be transformed into your own personal entertainment area. All rooms are generously sized, and the backyard is perfect for both relaxation and playtime. With a practically new roof and a price that's hard to beat, don't miss out on the opportunity to make this house your home! Schedule your appointment today.

24. 2024-04-13
    historical
25. 2024-01-13
    listed $275,000 Active
26. 2024-01-12
    historical
27. 2023-12-16
    price $285,000
28. 2023-11-03
    listed $290,000 Active
29. 2020-04-28
    soldstatus
30. 2020-04-27
    soldstatus Sold
31. 2020-03-19
    status Pending
32. 2020-03-13
    status Option Pending
33. 2020-03-06
    listed $174,900 Active
34. 2020-02-03
    soldstatus
35. 2009-04-07
    soldstatus
36. 2009-02-18
    historical
37. 2008-08-20
    listed $124,900
38. 2008-05-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,629 · $469/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,629 · $469/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,823
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$5,629
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,906
• − Management: −$1,906
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$7,874
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,890
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,742/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+96.2% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $255,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-16 Listed $265,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-07-10 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-22 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-05-11 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2024-05-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-14 Listed $257,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2024-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-12-16 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-11-03 Listed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2020-04-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-04-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-03-19 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-13 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-03-06 Listed $174,900 HARMLS
• 2020-02-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-04-07 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-02-18 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2008-08-20 Listed $124,900 HARMLS
• 2008-05-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,629 · +23.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.