309 S 3rd St · Homer, NE 68030

$50,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1990 0.34 ac lot $41/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home has great potential and on a great size lot. This 1 story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a very open living/kitchen/dining area. The roof is 1 year old otherwise this home just needs some love.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1990
• Listed 46 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $425 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#238 in NE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Homer Community Schools (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #63 of 111 in NE (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 37 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Dakota County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.14%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,119
• List price: $50,000
• Delta: -67.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $33,148
• Equity at exit: $22,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.72×
• Total profit: $80,116
• Equity at exit: $34,648

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Nebraska: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempted; moderate court pace.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 68030

• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,031 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $479/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$217
• Net cashflow: $425

Break-even live

Break-even rent $493

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 44 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 43 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $50,000 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $50,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $50,000 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $50,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    price $50,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 29 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 28 DOM
16. 2026-05-07
    status Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    This home has great potential and on a great size lot. This 1 story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a very open living/kitchen/dining area. The roof is 1 year old otherwise this home just needs some love.

17. 2025-11-07
    listed $60,000 Active 218-char remark

    Show marketing remark (218 chars)

    This home has great potential and on a great size lot. This 1 story home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms with a very open living/kitchen/dining area. The roof is 1 year old otherwise this home just needs some love.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NE · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $479 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $865 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$386/yr (+$32/mo · 80.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,375
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$479
• − Insurance: −$1,048
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$990
• − Management: −$990
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $4,613
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,107
• After-tax cash flow: $3,996/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Homer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 3172000
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,540
• Composite: 43.47/100
• National rank: #3001
• State rank: #63 of 111 in NE

Livability — Homer

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #238
• US rank: #8443

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Homer, NE
• Population (ZIP): 641

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,617 people
• By 2030: 20,444 · -0.8%
• By 2040: 20,149 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 19,914 · -3.4%
• By 2075: 19,958 · -3.2%
• By 2100: 20,230 · -1.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.8) · D 34.5% · R 64.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.7pp · 2024: -29.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.8 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+15.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+4.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NE)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Conglomerate	1	$371B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Relisted — NWIA
• 2025-11-07 Listed $60,000 NWIA

Property tax history

+122.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $479 · -10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.