531 Smith Fork Rd · Phelps, KY 41553

$39,700

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,400 sqft · SingleFamily · 53 Days on market

Built 1965 6.00 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

One story home with BASEMENT!!! This home has three bedrooms and one and a half baths. Come see before its GONE!!!. Note: Buyer to verify schools and lot size. Lot size taken from PVA. Copy of deed attached in documents.

Key facts

• 6 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 53 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $599 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $39k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#504 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Pike County (rural): math 24% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #98 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pike County Day Treatment (math 24% / reading 24%, 14 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 5 active listings in the ZIP; 4 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $417 of equity ($274 loan paydown + $143 appreciation (0.4% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -33% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($39k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $38,509 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.96% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 70.62%
• DSCR: 4.14
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.36% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.39×
• Total profit: $37,693
• Equity at exit: $12,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.93×
• Total profit: $88,112
• Equity at exit: $15,313

Cash invested: $11,116 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 41553

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 5
• Price-to-rent: 2.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$208
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $596/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $599

Break-even live

Break-even rent $418

Max offer price $39,700

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $626	-5% $612	+0% $599	+5% $585	+10% $571
Rent	-10% $506	-5% $552	+0% $599	+5% $645	+10% $691
Rate	-1.0pp $619	-0.5pp $609	base $599	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $578

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,925
• Closing costs: $1,191
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-07-08
   status Pending
2. 2025-06-25
   price $39,700
3. 2025-05-15
   listed $47,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,104
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,224
• − Property taxes: −$596
• − Insurance: −$865
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$1,155
• Taxable income: $7,008
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,682
• After-tax cash flow: $5,501/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pike County
• NCES district ID: 2104800
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $32,601
• Composite: 26.14/100
• National rank: #7276
• State rank: #98 of 165 in KY

Livability — Phelps

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #504
• US rank: #25548

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,324

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 55,108 people
• By 2030: 51,235 · -7.0%
• By 2040: 43,573 · -20.9%
• By 2050: 36,797 · -33.2%
• By 2075: 24,330 · -55.9%
• By 2100: 15,611 · -71.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.4) · D 16.8% · R 82.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -51.6pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -65.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.4 2020: R+60.7 2016: R+62.8 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.36%
• Current HPI: 119.9221
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-15.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-08 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2025-06-25 Price Changed $39,700 ImagineMLS
• 2025-05-15 Listed $47,000 ImagineMLS