37 Sunset Dr · Shirley, NY 11967

$599,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,218 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1986 0.46 ac lot Est $665k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this spacious Colonial located in Mastic Acres offering 2,218 square feet of comfortable living space. This inviting home features 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms, along with a thoughtfully designed layout that includes a welcoming living room, formal dining room, bright eat-in kitchen, and a cozy family room perfect for relaxing or entertaining. Additional highlights include a convenient laundry room, oversized 2 car attached garage, full basement, numerous closets for plenty of storage, beautiful hardwood floors throughout much of the home, and a roof that is only 4 years old providing peace of mind for years to come. This home combines classic Colonial charm with the space and f

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Laundry room
• Eat in kitchen

Tags

• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• EAT IN KITCHEN
• LAUNDRY ROOM
• SUNKEN FAMILY ROOM
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; 2-car garage
• Security: Security system
• Utilities: Electricity available and connected (PSEG); Water available and connected; Sewer available and connected (cesspool); Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area reported from plans
• Construction: Cedar and frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Fenced yard (wood); Security system

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 9; Attic with pull-down stairs; Basement: full, unfinished
• Flooring: Hardwood floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot air heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Entrance foyer; Formal dining room; His and hers closets; Primary bathroom; Storage; Bay windows; Shutters; Storm windows; Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $599k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $681 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $558k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $558k (6.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.8% in Shirley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#886 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: William Floyd Elementary School (math 48% / reading 54%, grade C-, #1,047 of 2,108 statewide, top 50%, 742 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd Middle School (math 36% / reading 47%, grade F, #394 of 729 statewide, top 55%, 1,053 students, 54% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 183 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $558,444 (6.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.87%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $665,400
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
249 Revilo Ave	0.22mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,222 (+0%)	4mo	$440,000	$198	81
55 Ridgewood Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,132 (-4%)	11mo	$625,000	$293	59
120 River Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,035 (-8%)	4mo	$740,000	$364	54
317 Grand	0.44mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-5%)	15mo	$630,000	$300	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-53,881
• Equity at exit: $89,313

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $8,223
• Equity at exit: $51,791

Cash invested: $167,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11967

• Home prices YoY: -33.1%
• Active inventory: 183
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax from tax record: −$340 /mo · $4,083/yr
• Insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,173
• Net cashflow: $681

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,723

Max offer price $599,000

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $149,750
• Closing costs: $17,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
42 Revilo Ave Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2670	$5,000	$1.87	24d	1	0.86mi
357 Smith Rd Shirley, NY	3.0	2.0	2000	$6,500	$3.25	3d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $599,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $599,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $599,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $599,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $599,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $599,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,083 · $340/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,103 · $592/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,020/yr (+$252/mo · 74.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $67,013
• − Mortgage interest: −$33,553
• − Property taxes: −$4,083
• − Insurance: −$2,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$5,361
• − Management: −$5,361
• − Depreciation: −$17,425
• Taxable loss: −$1,766
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$424
• After-tax cash flow: $8,591/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Shirley

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #886
• US rank: #17184

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shirley, NY
• City population: 27,266
• Population (ZIP): 27,266

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 10% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -212.21%
• Current HPI: 428.8362
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,083 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.