1102 Michael Dr · Angola on the Lake, NY 14006

$65,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2002 ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEWLY LISTED 3 bedroom manufactured home, 2 full baths include master glamour bath with garden tub. Eat in kitchen offers abundant counterspace, cupboards, pantry, built in spice rack and a separate formal dining room. Enjoy the den/home office with french style entry, and large living room. Master bedroom includes walk in closet and linen closet. Great home in Well maintained community, quiet wooded lot in a country setting. Close to dining, shopping and bus route, Evans beach rites community pool and star tax eligible. 2002 Fleetwood, 28x54, serial # 49427 , grey/white

Key facts

• Pantry cabinet
• Walk in closet
• Galley style kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• SEPARATE FAMILY ROOM
• GALLEY STYLE KITCHEN
• PANTRY CABINET
• BREAKFAST AREA
• WALK IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $822 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,000 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, schools F, amenities F.
• Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore) (suburban): math 43% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #424 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 102 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $449 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $65k implies a 67% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 54.20%
• DSCR: 3.41
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $228,312
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7999 Erie Rd	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,592 (+5%)	18mo	$240,000	$151	57
7847 Erie Rd	0.54mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,635 (+8%)	8mo	$207,000	$127	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 52.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.30×
• Total profit: $41,846
• Equity at exit: $9,692

10-year hold

• IRR: 57.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.71×
• Total profit: $103,952
• Equity at exit: $5,620

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14006

• Home prices YoY: -16.8%
• Active inventory: 102
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $975/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$338
• Net cashflow: $822

Break-even live

Break-even rent $569

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $867	-5% $844	+0% $822	+5% $800	+10% $777
Rent	-10% $695	-5% $758	+0% $822	+5% $886	+10% $949
Rate	-1.0pp $855	-0.5pp $839	base $822	+0.5pp $805	+1.0pp $788

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-18
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-16
   listed $65,000 Active
3. 2025-07-22
   historical
4. 2025-07-22
   historical
5. 2025-07-21
   historical
6. 2025-07-15
   status Pending
7. 2025-06-02
   listed $49,900 Active
8. 2010-10-15
   soldstatus $39,000 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   NEWLY LISTED 3 bedroom manufactured home, 2 full baths include master glamour bath with garden tub. Eat in kitchen offers abundant counterspace, cupboards, pantry, built in spice rack and a separate formal dining room. Enjoy the den/home office with french style entry, and large living room. Master bedroom includes walk in closet and linen closet. Great home in Well maintained community, quiet wooded lot in a country setting. Close to dining, shopping and bus route, Evans beach rites community pool and star tax eligible. 2002 Fleetwood, 28x54, serial # 49427 , grey/white

9. 2010-05-17
   listed $42,900 585-char remark

   Show marketing remark (585 chars)

   NEWLY LISTED 3 bedroom manufactured home, 2 full baths include master glamour bath with garden tub. Eat in kitchen offers abundant counterspace, cupboards, pantry, built in spice rack and a separate formal dining room. Enjoy the den/home office with french style entry, and large living room. Master bedroom includes walk in closet and linen closet. Great home in Well maintained community, quiet wooded lot in a country setting. Close to dining, shopping and bus route, Evans beach rites community pool and star tax eligible. 2002 Fleetwood, 28x54, serial # 49427 , grey/white

10. 2001-07-31
    soldstatus $73,581
11. 2000-10-30
    listed $73,581

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$975
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,545
• − Management: −$1,545
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $9,388
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,253
• After-tax cash flow: $7,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans-Brant Central School District (Lake Shore)
• NCES district ID: 3616560
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,433
• Composite: 40.89/100
• National rank: #3619
• State rank: #424 of 590 in NY

Livability — Angola on the Lake

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1000
• US rank: #19506

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,354

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 3% Black 2% Asian 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Italian 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -80.95%
• Current HPI: 401.7461
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-11.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-18 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-21 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2025-07-15 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-06-02 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2010-10-15 Sold (MLS) $39,000 WNYREIS
• 2010-05-17 Listed $42,900 WNYREIS
• 2001-07-31 Sold (MLS) $73,581 WNYREIS
• 2000-10-30 Listed $73,581 WNYREIS