293 SW Aloe Ct · Lake City, FL 32024

$215,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · Manufactured public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2003 0.55 ac lot Est $260k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Immaculately clean three-bedroom, three-bath home with a six-year-old metal roof, seven-year-old HVAC, and 20 x 24 metal garage with a concrete floor to support a car lift. A 12x25 covered RV shelter in the back, next to the back door, with a 30-amp electric box. Fire hydrant out front near the street for the best insurance rate. Well is no longer used, now connected to city water. Enjoy your coffee on the front covered porch. 56" flat screen Phillips TV will convey. Split floor plan, primary bedroom on one end and secondary bedrooms on the opposite. One of those secondary bedrooms has an exit door.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Hvac
• Metal garage

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• HVAC
• METAL GARAGE
• COVERED RV SHELTER
• 30-AMP ELECTRIC BOX
• CITY WATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoned RMH2

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Chain link fencing; Shed(s); Workshop

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Ceiling fans

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $185k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $185k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 206 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $60k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $17k; list at $215k implies a 1172% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,246 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.10%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $259,776
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
283 SW Troy St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	5mo	$229,900	$164	44
157 SW Trey Way	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	10mo	$258,846	$184	39
140 SW Doe Gln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-2%)	22mo	$185,000	$119	37
136 SW Nathan Ct	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,352 (-15%)	4mo	$229,000	$169	36
530 SW Whitetail Cir	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-11%)	11mo	$195,000	$139	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $126,922
• Equity at exit: $193,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.08×
• Total profit: $365,809
• Equity at exit: $417,698

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32024

• Home prices YoY: 7.6%
• Active inventory: 206
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,852 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,090/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$389
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,656

Max offer price $215,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-05
   days on market $215,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $215,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $215,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $215,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $215,000 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $215,000 Active 80 DOM
7. 2026-03-11
   listed $219,000 Active
8. 2003-02-17
   soldstatus $16,900
9. 2000-05-15
   soldstatus $13,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,090 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,784 · $149/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 63.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,230
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$1,090
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,778
• − Management: −$1,778
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,790
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$430
• After-tax cash flow: $2,296/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 40,507
• Population (ZIP): 20,644

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Portuguese 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.05%
• Current HPI: 269.4659
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1475.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Listed $219,000 NFMLS
• 2003-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $16,900 Public Records
• 2000-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $13,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,090 · +0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.