34 Birchwood Dr · New Windsor, NY 12553

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,930 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 10 Days on market

Built 1961 0.36 ac lot $155/sqft · 40% below area Est $499k · 40% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This lovely home on a corner lot overlooking the Hudson Valley offers 4 bedrms, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen, living room, central air, and a spacious enlosed patio off of the kitchen. Charming home also has a full finished basement, new front deck, shed and a newer roof. Drive by-you will love it!!

Key facts

• Eat-in kitchen
• Central air
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL AIR
• ENCLOSED PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached parking; Driveway; 1-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Public sewer; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Frame and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction with vinyl siding; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Flooring: Tile flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Other heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Other interior features; Full unfinished basement; Attic access via scuttle; 7 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 3.8% in New Windsor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#529 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A, employment B+; Watch: crime C-, cost of living D+, amenities F.
• Newburgh City School District (suburban): math 33% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #500 of 590 in NY (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Newburgh Free Academy (math 76% / reading 85%, grade A, #506 of 1,100 statewide, top 46%, 3,433 students, 56% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 80% at this address vs 40% district-wide (+40 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Newburgh City School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.82%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $499,312
• List price: $299,900
• Delta: -39.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14 Cherie Ln	0.41mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,958 (+2%)	5mo	$500,000	$255	68
293 Garden St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,972 (+2%)	4mo	$530,000	$269	67
304 Cloverdale Ct	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,883 (-2%)	9mo	$500,000	$266	67
404 Carlton Cir	0.21mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,146 (+11%)	2mo	$460,000	$214	63
1 Windsor Square Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,748 (-9%)	8mo	$460,000	$263	56
223 Margo St	0.27mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,691 (-12%)	5mo	$440,000	$260	56
3 Garden Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,790 (-7%)	2mo	$540,000	$302	51
131 Erie Ave	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,196 (+14%)	1mo	$525,000	$239	49
9 Louise Dr	0.57mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,750 (-9%)	6mo	$375,000	$214	46
20 Cedar Ln	0.69mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,746 (-10%)	5mo	$445,000	$255	40
5 Buttermilk Dr	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,700 (-12%)	7mo	$380,000	$224	37
35 Guernsey Dr	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,640 (-15%)	5mo	$460,000	$280	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-22,469
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $14,614
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,430 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$605 /mo · $7,260/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$720
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,915

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
72 Blooming Grove Tpke New Windsor, NY	5.0	3.0	2288	$3,850	$1.68	14d	1	0.72mi
109 Caesars Ln New Windsor, NY	3.0	1.0	1225	$2,300	$1.88	14d	1	0.99mi
15 Forge Hill Rd New Windsor, NY	3.0	1.0	1548	$3,200	$2.07	14d	1	1.06mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-12
   listed $299,900 Active 613-char remark
2. 2006-07-07
   soldstatus $300,000
3. 2006-06-30
   soldstatus $300,000 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   This lovely home on a corner lot overlooking the Hudson Valley offers 4 bedrms, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen, living room, central air, and a spacious enlosed patio off of the kitchen. Charming home also has a full finished basement, new front deck, shed and a newer roof. Drive by-you will love it!!

4. 2006-06-02
   historical 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   This lovely home on a corner lot overlooking the Hudson Valley offers 4 bedrms, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen, living room, central air, and a spacious enlosed patio off of the kitchen. Charming home also has a full finished basement, new front deck, shed and a newer roof. Drive by-you will love it!!

5. 2006-06-02
   price $314,900 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   This lovely home on a corner lot overlooking the Hudson Valley offers 4 bedrms, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen, living room, central air, and a spacious enlosed patio off of the kitchen. Charming home also has a full finished basement, new front deck, shed and a newer roof. Drive by-you will love it!!

6. 2006-04-13
   listed $300,000 314-char remark

   Show marketing remark (314 chars)

   This lovely home on a corner lot overlooking the Hudson Valley offers 4 bedrms, hardwood floors throughout, eat in kitchen, living room, central air, and a spacious enlosed patio off of the kitchen. Charming home also has a full finished basement, new front deck, shed and a newer roof. Drive by-you will love it!!

7. 1995-01-11
   soldstatus $128,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,260 · $605/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,260 · $605/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,163
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,260
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,293
• − Management: −$3,293
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $294
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$70
• After-tax cash flow: $4,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newburgh City School District
• NCES district ID: 3620700
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,387
• Composite: 35.46/100
• National rank: #4927
• State rank: #500 of 590 in NY

Livability — New Windsor

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9423

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: New Windsor, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 27,384
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+134.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-30 Sold (MLS) $300,000 HGMLS
• 2006-06-02 Price Changed $314,900 HGMLS
• 2006-06-02 Delisted — HGMLS
• 2006-04-13 Listed $300,000 HGMLS
• 1995-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $128,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,260 · +2.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.