643A Plymouth Dr Unit A · Leisure Village, NJ 08701

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · SingleFamily · 142 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $189/sqft · 23% below area Est $163k · 23% under $375/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION! CLOSE TO GATE.A WALK TO THE LAKE & CLUBHOUSE. ETON END UNIT FEATURES ONE BEDROOM ONE BATH. NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM. SEPARITE AREA FOR DINING.GALLEY KITCHEN.SPACIOUS CLOSET IN BEDROOM.ENCLOSED PORCH TO HAVE YOUR MORNING COFFEE.TAKE A LOOK! THIS CAN BE YOUR NEW HOME.

Key facts

• Close to gate
• Clubhouse
• Eton end unit

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO GATE
• WALK TO THE LAKE
• CLUBHOUSE
• ETON END UNIT
• GALLEY KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $217 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 6.0% in Leisure Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#416 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime B+, cost of living B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 425 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 20% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.43%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $162,564
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -23.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652A Plymouth Dr	0.10mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	7mo	$145,000	$219	90
44J Cambridge Ct #2010	0.30mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	7mo	$125,000	$196	74
44K Cambridge Ct	0.29mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	14mo	$110,000	$172	69
38J Cambridge Ct	0.29mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	17mo	$126,000	$197	66
161A Gramercy Ct	0.73mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$196	65
303A W Malvern Ct	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	2mo	$127,000	$192	64
20F Buckingham Dr	0.28mi	1/1.0	636 (-4%)	19mo	$80,000	$126	64
94C Edinburgh Ln	0.46mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	18mo	$140,000	$211	63
160D Gramercy Ct	0.72mi	1/1.0	670 (+1%)	2mo	$123,000	$184	63
303 Malvern Ct Unit C	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	16mo	$153,000	$231	52
303B Malvern Ct	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	16mo	$140,000	$211	52
721 Buckingham Dr Unit B	0.38mi	1/1.0	728 (+10%)	21mo	$142,000	$195	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,190
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.38×
• Total profit: $13,439
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,843 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $217

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 83%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $303	-5% $260	+0% $217	+5% $174	+10% $130
Rent	-10% $71	-5% $144	+0% $217	+5% $290	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $249	base $217	+0.5pp $184	+1.0pp $151

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	44d	1	0.81mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $375 · $4,500/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $125,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 138 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 137 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 134 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 133 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 129 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 128 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 124 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 123 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 122 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 121 DOM
16. 2026-02-11
    status Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! CLOSE TO GATE.A WALK TO THE LAKE & CLUBHOUSE. ETON END UNIT FEATURES ONE BEDROOM ONE BATH. NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM. SEPARITE AREA FOR DINING.GALLEY KITCHEN.SPACIOUS CLOSET IN BEDROOM.ENCLOSED PORCH TO HAVE YOUR MORNING COFFEE.TAKE A LOOK! THIS CAN BE YOUR NEW HOME.

17. 2025-12-03
    status Pending 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! CLOSE TO GATE.A WALK TO THE LAKE & CLUBHOUSE. ETON END UNIT FEATURES ONE BEDROOM ONE BATH. NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM. SEPARITE AREA FOR DINING.GALLEY KITCHEN.SPACIOUS CLOSET IN BEDROOM.ENCLOSED PORCH TO HAVE YOUR MORNING COFFEE.TAKE A LOOK! THIS CAN BE YOUR NEW HOME.

18. 2025-11-21
    listed $125,000 Active 283-char remark

    Show marketing remark (283 chars)

    GREAT LOCATION! CLOSE TO GATE.A WALK TO THE LAKE & CLUBHOUSE. ETON END UNIT FEATURES ONE BEDROOM ONE BATH. NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM. SEPARITE AREA FOR DINING.GALLEY KITCHEN.SPACIOUS CLOSET IN BEDROOM.ENCLOSED PORCH TO HAVE YOUR MORNING COFFEE.TAKE A LOOK! THIS CAN BE YOUR NEW HOME.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $2,377/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, with a focus on painting, updating appliances, and fixtures.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Older and dated design
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Small and dated design
• Major Carpeting — Worn and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — New fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior siding · Weathered and in need of repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
Kitchen cabinets · Older and dated design	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Bathroom fixtures · Small and dated design	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Carpeting · Worn and in need of replacement	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$51,000–180,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — New fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #14624

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 5757.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Italian 5% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $125,000 MOMLS