643A Plymouth Dr Unit A · Lakewood, NJ 08701

$125,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 663 sqft · SingleFamily · 22 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 871 sqft lot $189/sqft · 26% below area Est $168k · 26% under $375/mo HOA · 23% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT LOCATION! CLOSE TO GATE.A WALK TO THE LAKE & CLUBHOUSE. ETON END UNIT FEATURES ONE BEDROOM ONE BATH. NICE SIZE LIVING ROOM. SEPARITE AREA FOR DINING.GALLEY KITCHEN.SPACIOUS CLOSET IN BEDROOM.ENCLOSED PORCH TO HAVE YOUR MORNING COFFEE.TAKE A LOOK! THIS CAN BE YOUR NEW HOME.

Key facts

• Close to gate
• Clubhouse
• Eton end unit

Tags

• GREAT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO GATE
• WALK TO THE LAKE
• CLUBHOUSE
• ETON END UNIT
• GALLEY KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $53 ($631/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.7% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#382 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lakewood Township School District (suburban): math 17% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #417 of 472 in NJ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Oak Street Elem School (math 17% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,303 statewide, top 80%, 534 students, 97% FRL); Lakewood Middle School (math 16% / reading 30%, grade F, #376 of 431 statewide, top 88%, 995 students, 94% FRL); Lakewood High School (math 14% / reading 37%, grade F, #321 of 399 statewide, top 81%, 1,423 students, 86% FRL).
• Market conditions: 749 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 97d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 90% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 23% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 68% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.80%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $168,159
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -25.67%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
652A Plymouth Dr	0.10mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	12mo	$145,000	$219	86
103C Edinburgh Ln	0.39mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	3mo	$65,000	$98	79
670A New Castle Ct	0.43mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	2mo	$98,000	$148	78
44J Cambridge Ct #2010	0.30mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	12mo	$125,000	$196	70
44K Cambridge Ct	0.29mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	18mo	$110,000	$172	65
38J Cambridge Ct	0.29mi	1/1.0	638 (-4%)	22mo	$126,000	$197	62
161A Gramercy Ct	0.73mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	6mo	$130,000	$196	61
303A W Malvern Ct	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	6mo	$127,000	$192	60
94C Edinburgh Ln	0.46mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	23mo	$140,000	$211	60
160D Gramercy Ct	0.72mi	1/1.0	670 (+1%)	7mo	$123,000	$184	59
303 Malvern Ct Unit C	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	20mo	$153,000	$231	48
303B Malvern Ct	0.74mi	1/1.0	663 (0%)	21mo	$140,000	$211	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-16,653
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-9,155
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 6 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.2 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $125,000 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 45 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +40.7% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 08701

• Active inventory: 749
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,635 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$156 /mo · $1,875/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$375
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $53

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,568

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $139	-5% $96	+0% $53	+5% $9	+10% $-34
Rent	-10% $-77	-5% $-12	+0% $53	+5% $117	+10% $182
Rate	-1.0pp $116	-0.5pp $84	base $53	+0.5pp $20	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
38K Cambridge Ct Unit K Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	638	$1,450	$2.27	37d	1	0.31mi
219 Buckingham Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,900	$2.87	184d	1	0.81mi
365F Chesterfield Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,500	$2.26	10d	1	0.98mi
433D Picardy Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,550	$2.34	53d	1	1.12mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	66d	1	1.15mi
533E Dartmoor Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,750	$2.64	110d	1	1.15mi
841B Inverness Ct Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	96d	1	1.40mi
829A Balmoral Ct Unit 1001 Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,600	$2.41	165d	1	1.43mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	134d	1	1.47mi
1034B Aberdeen Dr Lakewood, NJ	1.0	1.0	663	$1,350	$2.04	86d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $125,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $125,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $125,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-10-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 259 DOM
12. 2026-10-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-10-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-10-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-10-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-10-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-10-10
    days on market $125,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2026-10-09
    days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
19. 2026-10-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
20. 2026-10-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
21. 2026-10-06
    days on market $125,000 Active 249 DOM
22. 2026-10-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 248 DOM
23. 2026-10-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 247 DOM
24. 2026-10-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 246 DOM
25. 2026-10-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 245 DOM
26. 2026-10-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 244 DOM
27. 2026-09-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
28. 2026-09-29
    days on market $125,000 Active 242 DOM
29. 2026-09-28
    days on market $125,000 Active 241 DOM
30. 2026-09-27
    days on market $125,000 Active 240 DOM
31. 2026-09-26
    days on market $125,000 Active 239 DOM
32. 2026-09-25
    days on market $125,000 Active 238 DOM
33. 2026-09-24
    days on market $125,000 Active 237 DOM
34. 2026-09-23
    days on market $125,000 Active 236 DOM
35. 2026-09-22
    days on market $125,000 Active 235 DOM
36. 2026-09-21
    days on market $125,000 Active 234 DOM
37. 2026-09-20
    days on market $125,000 Active 233 DOM
38. 2026-09-19
    days on market $125,000 Active 232 DOM
39. 2026-09-18
    days on market $125,000 Active 231 DOM
40. 2026-09-17
    days on market $125,000 Active 230 DOM
41. 2026-09-16
    days on market $125,000 Active 229 DOM
42. 2026-09-15
    days on market $125,000 Active 228 DOM
43. 2026-09-14
    days on market $125,000 Active 227 DOM
44. 2026-09-13
    days on market $125,000 Active 226 DOM
45. 2026-09-12
    days on market $125,000 Active 225 DOM
46. 2026-09-11
    days on market $125,000 Active 224 DOM
47. 2026-09-05
    days on market $125,000 Active 218 DOM
48. 2026-09-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 217 DOM
49. 2026-09-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 215 DOM
50. 2026-08-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 213 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 68% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,616
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$1,875
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,569
• − Management: −$1,569
• − HOA: −$4,500
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,161
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$279
• After-tax cash flow: $909/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $16,575–$29,835 screening

This home requires moderate renovations to improve its curb appeal and interior aesthetics, with a focus on painting, updating appliances, and fixtures.

Repairs flagged

• Major Landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt
• Major Exterior siding — Weathered and in need of repainting
• Moderate Kitchen cabinets — Older and dated design
• Moderate Bathroom fixtures — Small and dated design
• Major Carpeting — Worn and in need of replacement

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen appliances — Modern appliances improve functionality and appeal ↑
• Both Upgrade bathroom fixtures — New fixtures enhance functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 22/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Oak Street Elem School F NJ #1,030/1,303 Nat'l #34,564/41,679 Middle Lakewood Middle School F NJ #376/431 Nat'l #11,007/14,009 High Lakewood High School F NJ #321/399 Nat'l #12,309/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakewood Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3408220
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,301
• Composite: 19.21/100
• National rank: #8813
• State rank: #417 of 472 in NJ

C Composite livability gradescore 65/100

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #382
• US rank: #13069

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment C- Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 586,991 people
• City population: 139,149
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 139,149
• Household income: $64,959
• Rent vs Own: 48.5% rent · 51.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 19% of renters

---

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 9% German/W. Germanic 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -682.83%
• Current HPI: 465.344
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-11 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-12-03 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $125,000 MOMLS