1913 Lincoln Dr · Orange, TX 77630

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1955 6,011 sqft lot $54/sqft · 48% below area Est $134k · 48% under ↓ 18% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! One-story brick home in the Lincoln Heights Subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Functional floor plan with living area and kitchen with breakfast space. Backyard includes a patio. Property offers solid potential for rental income or value-add improvements.

Key facts

• Backyard patio
• Living area
• One story brick home

Tags

• ONE STORY BRICK HOME
• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST SPACE
• BACKYARD PATIO
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL
• VALUE ADD IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on slab foundation; Built in 1955
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Private yard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Oven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Ceiling fan(s); Kitchen/dining combo
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $531 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.4% vs local median 3.9% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 337 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $707 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.6% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.49%
• DSCR: 2.45
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $133,933
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -47.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Manley Cir	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,360 (+6%)	4mo	$129,900	$96	72
1701 Robin	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-5%)	11mo	$167,000	$136	56
1833 W Decker Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,183 (-8%)	2mo	$169,900	$144	50
1908 Maple	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,202 (-7%)	11mo	$159,900	$133	47
2049 Wildwood Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	18mo	$175,000	$123	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.00×
• Total profit: $39,266
• Equity at exit: $23,933

10-year hold

• IRR: 41.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.55×
• Total profit: $108,754
• Equity at exit: $31,833

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 337
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,500/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $531

Break-even live

Break-even rent $765

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	13d	1	0.36mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	43d	1	0.38mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	13d	1	0.43mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	43d	1	0.45mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	21d	1	0.54mi
3 Pacific Cir Orange, TX	4.0	1.0	1361	$1,500	$1.10	21d	1	0.54mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	13d	1	0.57mi
4417 Willowglen St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,650	$1.00	13d	1	0.66mi
2309 7th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$995	$0.96	13d	1	0.80mi
1205 Wrenway Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,775	$1.14	13d	1	0.85mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	13d	27	0.88mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	13d	1	0.92mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	43d	1	1.24mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	13d	7	1.38mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	43d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    historical
17. 2026-05-12
    listed $70,000 Active 291-char remark
18. 2026-03-07
    price $75,000
19. 2026-03-03
    price $80,000
20. 2026-02-09
    listed $85,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$2,500
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $5,679
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,363
• After-tax cash flow: $5,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,500 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.