1913 Lincoln Dr · Orange, TX 77630

$65,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,288 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1955 Fair condition 6,011 sqft lot $50/sqft · 52% below area ↓ 24% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor opportunity! One-story brick home in the Lincoln Heights Subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom. Functional floor plan with living area and kitchen with breakfast space. Backyard includes a patio. Property offers solid potential for rental income or value-add improvements.

Key facts

• Backyard patio
• Living area
• One story brick home

Tags

• ONE STORY BRICK HOME
• LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN WITH BREAKFAST SPACE
• BACKYARD PATIO
• RENTAL INCOME POTENTIAL
• VALUE ADD IMPROVEMENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $65k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $559 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.6% vs local median 3.6% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 406 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 63d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($449 loan paydown + $656 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,050 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.86%
• DSCR: 2.64
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,040
• List price: $65,000
• Delta: -47.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2324 Manley Cir	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,360 (+6%)	6mo	$129,900	$96	70
1701 Robin	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,225 (-5%)	12mo	$167,000	$136	55
1833 W Decker Ave	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,183 (-8%)	3mo	$169,900	$144	49
1908 Maple	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,202 (-7%)	13mo	$159,900	$133	46
2049 Wildwood Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,424 (+11%)	19mo	$175,000	$123	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.25×
• Total profit: $40,976
• Equity at exit: $22,223

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $111,638
• Equity at exit: $29,559

Cash invested: $18,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 5 under contract
• Months of supply: 27.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $139,450 ($116/sqft)
• Median days on market: 74 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -10.2% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 406
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,437 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,500/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$302
• Net cashflow: $559

Break-even live

Break-even rent $730

Max offer price $65,000

Occupancy floor 56%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $577	+0% $559	+5% $541	+10% $522
Rent	-10% $445	-5% $502	+0% $559	+5% $616	+10% $673
Rate	-1.0pp $592	-0.5pp $576	base $559	+0.5pp $542	+1.0pp $525

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,250
• Closing costs: $1,950
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	63d	1	0.36mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	93d	1	0.38mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	63d	1	0.43mi
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	93d	1	0.45mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	70d	1	0.54mi
3 Pacific Cir Orange, TX	4.0	1.0	1361	$1,500	$1.10	70d	1	0.54mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	63d	1	0.57mi
4417 Willowglen St Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$1,650	$1.00	63d	1	0.66mi
2309 7th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$995	$0.96	63d	1	0.80mi
1205 Wrenway Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1551	$1,775	$1.14	63d	1	0.85mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,400	$1.26	62d	27	0.88mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	62d	1	0.92mi
1117 18th St Orange, TX	4.0	2.0	1716	$1,500	$0.87	93d	1	1.24mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	62d	7	1.38mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	93d	1	1.40mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,288Lot about 0.138 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story entry (slab foundation)
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofBuilt in 1955Slab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardPaved drivewayLocated in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeOven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $65,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $65,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $65,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $65,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $65,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $65,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 31 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $65,000 Active 30 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $65,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $65,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $65,000 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $65,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $65,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 18 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 14 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 13 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $65,000 Active 12 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $65,000 Active 11 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 10 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 9 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 8 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 7 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $65,000 Active 6 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 5 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 4 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $65,000 Active 3 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 2 DOM
31. 2026-06-30
    pricedays on marketlisting id $65,000 Active 1 DOM
32. 2026-06-25
    days on market $70,000 Active 43 DOM
33. 2026-06-23
    days on market $70,000 Active 41 DOM
34. 2026-06-21
    days on market $70,000 Active 40 DOM
35. 2026-06-18
    days on market $70,000 Active 37 DOM
36. 2026-06-17
    days on market $70,000 Active 36 DOM
37. 2026-06-16
    days on market $70,000 Active 35 DOM
38. 2026-06-15
    days on market $70,000 Active 34 DOM
39. 2026-06-14
    days on market $70,000 Active 32 DOM
40. 2026-06-13
    days on market $70,000 Active 31 DOM
41. 2026-06-10
    days on market $70,000 Active 29 DOM
42. 2026-06-09
    days on market $70,000 Active 28 DOM
43. 2026-06-08
    days on market $70,000 Active 27 DOM
44. 2026-06-07
    days on market $70,000 Active 26 DOM
45. 2026-06-03
    days on market $70,000 Active 22 DOM
46. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 21 DOM
47. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 20 DOM
48. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 19 DOM
49. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 18 DOM
50. 2026-05-12
    historical

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,500 · $208/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,246
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,641
• − Property taxes: −$2,500
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,380
• − Management: −$1,380
• − Depreciation: −$1,891
• Taxable income: $6,129
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,471
• After-tax cash flow: $5,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $32,200–$57,960 screening

This single-family home in Lincoln Heights Subdivision requires moderate renovations to update the kitchen and bathroom, paint the interior, and improve the landscaping. These updates would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — severely dated and worn
• Major bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Major landscaping — overgrown and unkempt

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both paint interior walls — fresh paint would improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both landscaping — a well-maintained yard would enhance the home's curb appeal and rental potential ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 20/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary West Orange-Stark El F TX #3,990/4,322 Nat'l #36,161/41,679 Middle West Orange-Stark Middle F TX #1,428/1,662 Nat'l #11,652/14,009 High West Orange-Stark H S F TX #1,250/1,632 Nat'l #12,347/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 88,065 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 12% of renters

---

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

---

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

---

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

---

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,288Lot about 0.138 acres
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Residential propertySingle-story entry (slab foundation)
• Construction: Brick constructionComposition roofBuilt in 1955Slab foundation
• Exterior features: DeckPatioPrivate yardPaved drivewayLocated in a subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas ovenGas rangeOven
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central electric air conditioningVentilation for improved indoor air quality
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen/family room comboKitchen/dining comboCeiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookupElectric dryer hookup

Price history

-23.5% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-30 Listed $65,000 HARMLS
• 2026-06-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-12 Listed $70,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $75,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $80,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-09 Listed $85,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,500 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.