3189 Atwell Ave · The Villages, FL 32162

$315,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2001 6,270 sqft lot Est $368k · 14% under $199/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Move-in ready and beautifully refreshed, this 3-bedroom, 2-bath home with a 2-car garage offers comfort, style, and convenience. Enjoy peace of mind with brand-new interior paint and luxury vinyl flooring throughout. The spacious open great room features vaulted ceilings and sliding glass doors that lead to a screened lanai—perfect for relaxing or entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with abundant cabinet space and a cozy breakfast nook. The large primary suite includes a walk-in closet and an en-suite bath with dual vanities and a generous walk-in shower. A desirable split-bedroom floor plan provides privacy for guests, and the second ba

Key facts

• Screened lanai
• Walk in closet
• En suite bath

Tags

• BRAND NEW INTERIOR PAINT
• LUXURY VINYL FLOORING
• SCREENED LANAI
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• WALK IN CLOSET
• EN SUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $249 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $304k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $304k (3.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,041/mo this rent would consume 49% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,056 (3.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.38%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $367,773
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3189 Atwell Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,477 (0%)	0mo	$315,000	$213	100
3249 Mansfield St	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,527 (+3%)	1mo	$336,000	$220	87
3248 Williams Rd	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	0mo	$375,000	$269	84
3183 Hatch Ln	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-5%)	3mo	$379,000	$270	79
766 Artesia Ave	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	3mo	$295,000	$212	74
935 Kenova Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,572 (+6%)	1mo	$397,000	$253	71
2297 Welcome Way	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-6%)	0mo	$330,000	$237	66
3001 Sandy Ln	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,542 (+4%)	0mo	$320,220	$208	66
3109 Archer Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	66
519 Weston Manor Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,505 (+2%)	1mo	$374,900	$249	62
3352 Archer Ave	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,652 (+12%)	4mo	$455,000	$275	61
1932 Alistar Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+15%)	1mo	$335,000	$198	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-32,341
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $4,227
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,041 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$171 /mo · $2,056/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$199
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$639
• Net cashflow: $249

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,726

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $427	-5% $338	+0% $249	+5% $159	+10% $70
Rent	-10% $8	-5% $128	+0% $249	+5% $369	+10% $489
Rate	-1.0pp $407	-0.5pp $329	base $249	+0.5pp $167	+1.0pp $84

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3292 Riverton Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1143	$2,100	$1.84	22d	1	0.16mi
3207 Woodridge Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1148	$4,200	$3.66	22d	1	0.19mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	22d	1	0.20mi
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	22d	1	0.38mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	22d	1	0.45mi
3489 Cambria Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$1,745	$1.47	22d	1	0.48mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	22d	1	0.63mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	22d	10	0.68mi
650 Richland Rd The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1188	$4,500	$3.79	22d	1	0.95mi
12020 Brush Hill Rd Oxford, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	947	$2,295	$2.42	22d	15	0.95mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	22d	1	0.95mi
2111 Thornton Ter The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,400	$3.81	22d	1	0.97mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	22d	1	0.99mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	22d	1	1.08mi
2864 Leicester Ter Unit 1525680P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1130	$2,090	$1.85	22d	1	1.32mi
2340 Pickens Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,900	$1.64	22d	1	1.44mi
2390 Southern Oak St The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$5,300	$4.58	22d	1	1.46mi
2685 Craven Way The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$4,600	$3.98	22d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $199 · $2,388/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-22
   listed $315,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,056 · $171/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,614 · $218/mo
• Expected delta: +$558/yr (+$47/mo · 27.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,487
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,056
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,919
• − Management: −$2,919
• − HOA: −$2,388
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,179
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $3,506/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Listed $315,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,056 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.