6348 Lawrence 1207 · Halltown, MO 65604

$134,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · Manufactured public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1999 3.11 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 plus Acres of Privacy & Potential-Your Rural Escape Awaits! Located at the end of a private road where peace and quiet surround you. This 3.11-acre property offers the perfect foundation for your country dreams. Currently featuring a single-wide trailer ready for your personal touch, a tranquil pond, and a small garage/shop for your projects. Whether you want a quiet place to live, a smart investment, or a beautiful spot to build your dream house, this is it! Also has well and septic. This is sold AS-IS, with the right to inspect.

Key facts

• Private road
• 3 plus acres
• Septic

Tags

• 3 PLUS ACRES
• PRIVATE ROAD
• TRANQUIL POND
• WELL
• SEPTIC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $718 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $119k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#793 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Miller R-II (rural): math 25% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #276 of 324 in MO (top 85%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 67 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (35 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($119k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $118,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.55% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.82%
• DSCR: 2.02
• GRM: 5.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $23,913
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $79,851
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65604

• Home prices YoY: -13.1%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 5.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,089 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$169 /mo · $2,024/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$439
• Net cashflow: $718

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,180

Max offer price $134,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $811	-5% $765	+0% $718	+5% $672	+10% $625
Rent	-10% $553	-5% $636	+0% $718	+5% $801	+10% $883
Rate	-1.0pp $786	-0.5pp $752	base $718	+0.5pp $683	+1.0pp $648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $134,900 Active 126 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $134,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $134,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $134,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $134,900 Active 121 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $134,900 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $134,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $134,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $134,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $134,900 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $134,900 Active 110 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $134,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $134,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $134,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-02-12
    listed $134,900 Active 544-char remark

    Show marketing remark (544 chars)

    3 plus Acres of Privacy & Potential-Your Rural Escape Awaits! Located at the end of a private road where peace and quiet surround you. This 3.11-acre property offers the perfect foundation for your country dreams. Currently featuring a single-wide trailer ready for your personal touch, a tranquil pond, and a small garage/shop for your projects. Whether you want a quiet place to live, a smart investment, or a beautiful spot to build your dream house, this is it! Also has well and septic. This is sold AS-IS, with the right to inspect.

16. 2025-10-09
    price $139,900
17. 2025-09-03
    price $147,900
18. 2025-08-13
    listed $149,900 Active
19. 2025-01-21
    price $170,000
20. 2025-01-15
    listed $150,000 Active
21. 2024-12-15
    price $170,000
22. 2024-10-29
    price $183,000
23. 2024-09-23
    price $185,000
24. 2024-08-02
    listed $190,000 Active
25. 2021-04-16
    soldstatus
26. 2020-07-07
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$2,024
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,006
• − Management: −$2,006
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable income: $6,880
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,651
• After-tax cash flow: $6,967/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Miller R-II
• NCES district ID: 2921000
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $44,658
• Composite: 24.83/100
• National rank: #7592
• State rank: #276 of 324 in MO

Livability — Halltown

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #24072

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,909

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,142 people
• By 2030: 36,212 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 34,080 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 31,621 · -14.9%
• By 2075: 25,987 · -30.0%
• By 2100: 20,151 · -45.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.8) · D 17.6% · R 81.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -63.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.8 2020: R+62.6 2016: R+61.1 2012: R+47.0 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.86%
• Current HPI: 231.5643
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+169.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-12 Listed $134,900 SOMO
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $139,900 SOMO
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $147,900 SOMO
• 2025-08-13 Listed $149,900 SOMO
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $170,000 SOMO
• 2025-01-15 Listed $150,000 SOMO
• 2024-12-15 Price Changed $170,000 SOMO
• 2024-10-29 Price Changed $183,000 SOMO
• 2024-09-23 Price Changed $185,000 SOMO
• 2024-08-02 Listed $190,000 SOMO
• 2021-04-16 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2020-07-07 Listed $50,000 SOMO

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $213 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.