1326 Northumberland Dr · Moline Acres, MO 63137

$114,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,215 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1954 10,001 sqft lot $95/sqft · 17% below area Est $138k · 17% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Opportunity awaits with this 4 bed, 2 bath home in a great location. The main floor has 3 large bedroom, living room, kitchen, & full bathroom. The partially finished basement has a bedroom, full bathroom, and recreational area. This property is now active in an online auction. All offers must be submitted through the property's listing page on WWW.AUCTION.COM. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. If your offer is accepted, you agree to an offer submission technology fee of $212.00. The fee will be collected & disbursed by the settlement agent at closing. **Under FinCEN s new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC**

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1954

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $312 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#480 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D, schools F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 201 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $794 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1954 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,559 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1954 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.64%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,295
• List price: $114,900
• Delta: -16.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1331 Norchester Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,240 (+2%)	2mo	$209,900	$169	86
1250 Admiral Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,287 (+6%)	4mo	$115,000	$89	76
9737 Wendell Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,183 (-3%)	4mo	$60,000	$51	71
2360 Chambers Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,168 (-4%)	1mo	$44,900	$38	60
2225 Kerwin Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,135 (-7%)	2mo	$135,900	$120	58
2442 Gardner Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,054 (-13%)	2mo	$59,900	$57	56
1443 Attica Dr	0.65mi	3/1.0	1,302 (+7%)	3mo	$159,600	$123	55
2414 Castle Dr	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,054 (-13%)	4mo	$130,000	$123	54
9939 Duke Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-14%)	3mo	$102,000	$98	50
2410 Netherwood Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,320 (+9%)	1mo	$85,100	$64	46
9481 Adler Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-14%)	3mo	$89,900	$86	41
1147 Jolene Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,046 (-14%)	1mo	$149,000	$142	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $6,730
• Equity at exit: $17,132

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.73×
• Total profit: $55,640
• Equity at exit: $9,934

Cash invested: $32,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 201
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,452 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,214/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$305
• Net cashflow: $312

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,057

Max offer price $114,900

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $377	-5% $344	+0% $312	+5% $279	+10% $247
Rent	-10% $197	-5% $255	+0% $312	+5% $369	+10% $427
Rate	-1.0pp $370	-0.5pp $341	base $312	+0.5pp $282	+1.0pp $252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,725
• Closing costs: $3,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9908 Norbridge Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1240	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.07mi
1255 Bosworth Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1071	$1,575	$1.47	11d	1	0.40mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	0.43mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	44d	1	0.44mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	44d	1	0.53mi
1520 Attica Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1062	$1,200	$1.13	24d	1	0.60mi
2321 Noll Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	975	$1,320	$1.35	24d	1	0.61mi
10139 Royal Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1016	$900	$0.89	44d	1	0.66mi
10113 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	770	$1,325	$1.72	44d	1	0.66mi
2326 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$1,050	$0.99	24d	1	0.67mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	16d	1	0.72mi
10112 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	792	$1,000	$1.26	8d	1	0.78mi
10113 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	882	$775	$0.88	44d	1	0.80mi
2257 Chambers Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	0.82mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	15d	1	0.85mi
1253 Avant Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	795	$1,295	$1.63	18d	1	0.85mi
1115 Bakewell Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	916	$1,300	$1.42	44d	1	0.96mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	44d	1	0.96mi
10421 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,275	$1.25	24d	1	0.98mi
10367 Coburg Lands Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,270	$1.39	44d	1	0.98mi
1230 Roxton Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	22d	1	0.99mi
10404 Earl Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	770	$1,100	$1.43	4d	1	1.01mi
10441 Prince Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.5	1380	$1,380	$1.00	44d	1	1.02mi
10365 Lord Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,075	$1.24	2d	1	1.03mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	44d	1	1.04mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	4d	1	1.06mi
637 Karess Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	1190	$1,525	$1.28	13d	1	1.06mi
10322 Monarch Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1073	$1,728	$1.61	24d	1	1.07mi
10409 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,100	$1.21	22d	1	1.09mi
623 Ludlow Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,199	$1.43	24d	1	1.11mi
10501 Duke Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,090	$0.96	44d	1	1.11mi
9517 West Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1300	$1,300	$1.00	44d	1	1.12mi
1238 Hoyt Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1176	$1,400	$1.19	22d	1	1.13mi
10203 Trio Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,435	$1.57	16d	1	1.14mi
10557 Castle Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1023	$1,300	$1.27	15d	1	1.17mi
10066 Dorothy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$1,225	$1.34	22d	1	1.18mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	1.18mi
9924 Gloucester Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	992	$1,565	$1.58	11d	1	1.18mi
1208 Rapid Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	992	$1,375	$1.39	5d	1	1.20mi
10512 Count Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	888	$1,195	$1.35	15d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $114,900 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $114,900 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $114,900 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $114,900 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $124,900 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 86 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $124,900 Active 85 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $124,900 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $124,900 Active 77 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $124,900 Active 76 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $124,900 Active 75 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $124,900 Active 74 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $124,900 Active 73 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $124,900 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bed, 2 bath home in a great location. The main floor has 3 large bedroom, living room, kitchen, & full bathroom. The partially finished basement has a bedroom, full bathroom, and recreational area. This property is now active in an online auction. All offers must be submitted through the property's listing page on WWW.AUCTION.COM. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. If your offer is accepted, you agree to an offer submission technology fee of $212.00. The fee will be collected & disbursed by the settlement agent at closing. **Under FinCEN s new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC**

17. 2026-03-19
    listed $134,900 Active 928-char remark

    Show marketing remark (928 chars)

    Opportunity awaits with this 4 bed, 2 bath home in a great location. The main floor has 3 large bedroom, living room, kitchen, & full bathroom. The partially finished basement has a bedroom, full bathroom, and recreational area. This property is now active in an online auction. All offers must be submitted through the property's listing page on WWW.AUCTION.COM. The sale will be subject to a 5% buyer's premium pursuant to the Auction Terms and Conditions (minimums may apply). All auction bids will be processed subject to seller approval. If your offer is accepted, you agree to an offer submission technology fee of $212.00. The fee will be collected & disbursed by the settlement agent at closing. **Under FinCEN s new RRE Rule, transfers will be subject to reporting when buyers use entities or trusts to take title to residential real estate, when the transaction is all cash, privately financed or HELOC**

18. 2006-07-24
    soldstatus $124,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,214 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,436
• − Property taxes: −$2,214
• − Insurance: −$574
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,394
• − Management: −$1,394
• − Depreciation: −$3,343
• Taxable income: $2,066
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$496
• After-tax cash flow: $3,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Moline Acres

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #480
• US rank: #18899

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Moline Acres, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $124,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $134,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-07-24 Sold (Public Records) $124,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $2,214 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.