907 Monterey Dr · Shoreview, MN 55126

$269,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,211 sqft · Townhouse public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1976 1,219 sqft lot $194/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated Lake Martha Townhome. Part of the sought after Mounds View School system. Three spacious Bedrooms on the upper level, all tastefully updated with fresh Paint and Carpet as well as new Closet Doors. The main level presents a spacious and open floor plan. One of the most unique Townhome features is located on the front of the home where there is a spacious and private Concrete Patio.

Key facts

• $194 HOA
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1976

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above-grade finished area listed as 1,184; Main level finished area listed as 783; Lot dimensions approximately 31x40 (0.028 acres); Association-maintained private road
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Gaughan Management; Monthly association fee ($194) covering lawn care, grounds maintenance, professional management, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water (connected); City sewer (connected); Natural gas; Electric with circuit breakers
• Home design: Residential attached property; Two levels; Slab foundation; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Slab foundation; Asphalt roof; Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Vinyl exterior; Patio; Privacy wood fencing; Private road with association-maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms total; Primary bedroom 14x13 (upper level); Second bedroom 13x10 (upper level); Third bedroom 9x10 (upper level)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (upper level); One half bathroom (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Living room fireplace (wood-burning); Eat-in kitchen / kitchen-dining room layout; Main floor half bath; upper-level full bath; Main floor laundry
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup (gas)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-108 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (7.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (12.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (12.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Shoreview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#89 in MN, #2,019 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, health & safety F.
• Mounds View Public School District (suburban): math 58% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #30 of 301 in MN (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 147 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $234,301 (12.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.72%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-48,767
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-44,297
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55126

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,343 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$242 /mo · $2,904/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$194
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-108

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $249,962

Occupancy floor 100%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $45	-5% $-32	+0% $-108	+5% $-184	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-293	-5% $-200	+0% $-108	+5% $-15	+10% $77
Rate	-1.0pp $28	-0.5pp $-39	base $-108	+0.5pp $-177	+1.0pp $-248

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
418 Highway 96 W Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	867	$2,380	$2.75	2d	1	1.08mi
4106 Sylvia Ln S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	2.0	1322	$2,400	$1.82	44d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $194 · $2,328/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,000 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,000 Active 4 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,000 Active 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   remarks 676-char remark
5. 2026-06-15
   listed $269,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,958 · $247/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$5/mo · 1.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,116
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$2,904
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − HOA: −$2,328
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable loss: −$5,853
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,405
• After-tax cash flow: $111/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mounds View Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722950
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $72,492
• Composite: 54.04/100
• National rank: #1390
• State rank: #30 of 301 in MN

Livability — Shoreview

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #2019

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shoreview, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 27,456
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 27,456
• Household income: $108,217
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 468.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Asian 10% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -268.72%
• Current HPI: 245.484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+954.9% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-13 Listed $269,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-11-09 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-15 Sold (MLS) $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-25 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-13 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-10 Listed $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-09-03 Coming Soon $225,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-01-10 Sold (MLS) $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-17 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-09-25 Listed $85,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-12-11 Sold (MLS) $146,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-06 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-01 Listed $148,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 1996-12-10 Sold (Public Records) $25,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,904 · -1.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.