510 Trinity Trl · Forest Park, GA 30294

$319,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,845 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2001 $112/sqft · 10% below area Est $356k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

Key facts

• Large lot
• Backyard
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE LOT
• BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $319k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-240 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $253k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $253k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#209 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.6%/yr); 244 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $253,044 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.23%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,399
• List price: $319,000
• Delta: -10.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
507 Trinity Trl	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,779 (-2%)	18mo	$360,000	$130	79
1012 Grace Marie Ln	0.25mi	4/2.5	2,707 (-5%)	4mo	$324,000	$120	75
608 Morgans Trce	0.22mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,825 (-1%)	12mo	$385,000	$136	74
226 Saul Dr	0.36mi	4/3.0	2,788 (-2%)	8mo	$290,000	$104	73
716 Habersham Ct	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,940 (+3%)	5mo	$370,000	$126	71
205 Huntwood Ct	0.46mi	4/2.5	2,841 (-0%)	9mo	$319,000	$112	69
4508 Mitchells Meadow Ln	0.48mi	4/2.5	2,852 (+0%)	17mo	$345,000	$121	61
105 Solomon Dr	0.71mi	4/3.0	2,736 (-4%)	1mo	$295,500	$108	60
4170 Northwind Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,623 (-8%)	23mo	$335,000	$128	49
3719 Upton Ct	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,476 (-13%)	7mo	$265,000	$107	42
4471 Mitchells Ridge Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,562 (-10%)	20mo	$359,900	$140	40
4409 Mitchells Ridge Dr	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,530 (-11%)	20mo	$319,000	$126	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-62,894
• Equity at exit: $47,564

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-57,135
• Equity at exit: $27,581

Cash invested: $89,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30294

• Home prices YoY: -25.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.6%
• Active inventory: 244
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,530 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,673
• Tax from tax record: −$433 /mo · $5,201/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$531
• Net cashflow: $-240

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,834

Max offer price $276,576

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,750
• Closing costs: $9,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Solomon Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	2005	$2,150	$1.07	44d	1	0.12mi
101 Bond Lake Dr Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.5	2514	$2,604	$1.04	20d	1	0.53mi
4095 Gracewood Park Dr Ellenwood, GA	4.0	2.0	2394	$2,389	$1.00	22d	1	1.13mi
3346 Clevemont Way Ellenwood, GA	3.0	2.0	2216	$1,886	$0.85	5d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   statusdays on market $319,000 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $319,000 Price Change 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $338,600 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $338,600 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $338,600 Active 87 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $338,600 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $338,600 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $338,600 Active 82 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $338,600 Active 81 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $338,600 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    status Back On Market 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

15. 2026-05-08
    status Under Contract 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

16. 2026-04-09
    price $338,600 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

17. 2026-03-20
    price $343,800 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

18. 2026-03-05
    listed $349,000 New 193-char remark

    Show marketing remark (193 chars)

    Exceptional, spacious home on a large lot, with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath on lower level. You will love all the space in the backyard. Make this home your own today!

19. 2021-09-29
    soldstatus $3,482,098
20. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus $260,500 Closed 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

21. 2021-06-21
    soldstatus $260,500 Sold

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

22. 2021-05-11
    status Under Contract

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

23. 2021-05-11
    historical Active Under Contract 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

24. 2021-05-04
    listed $256,900 Active 154-char remark

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

25. 2021-05-04
    listed $256,900 New

    Show marketing remark (154 chars)

    Exceptional beautiful home on 0.7 acres, well kept, clean and spacious with 3 bedrooms / 2 baths upper, and 1 bedroom with 1 bath lower with extra rooms.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,201 · $433/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,201 · $433/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,869
• − Property taxes: −$5,201
• − Insurance: −$1,595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,429
• − Management: −$2,429
• − Depreciation: −$9,280
• Taxable loss: −$8,438
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,025
• After-tax cash flow: $-857/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Forest Park

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #209
• US rank: #12698

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 41,983
• Household income: $79,762
• Rent vs Own: 19.4% rent · 80.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 864.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.99%
• Current HPI: 213.1999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.56%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+31.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $338,600 GAMLS
• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $343,800 GAMLS
• 2026-03-05 Listed $349,000 GAMLS
• 2021-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $3,482,098 Public Records
• 2021-06-21 Sold (MLS) $260,500 GAMLS
• 2021-06-21 Sold (MLS) $260,500 FMLS
• 2021-05-11 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-05-11 Contingent — FMLS
• 2021-05-04 Listed $256,900 GAMLS
• 2021-05-04 Listed $256,900 FMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,201 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.