11411 White Bay Ln · Jacksonville, FL 32225

$164,900

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,292 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 319 Days on market

Built 1975 1,742 sqft lot Est $269k · 39% under $350/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Don't miss out to buy an affordable townhome off Monument!! This townhome has 2 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and GREAT floor plan with an open kitchen. Come paint and decorate it to your liking and ENJOY!! Roof replaced in 2020, AC replaced in 2021, and electrical panel updated in 2022. The association is responsible for the exterior maintenance and repairs plus landscaping care.

Key facts

• Replumbed
• New toilets
• Textured ceiling

Tags

• FRESH PAINTED
• NEW FLOORING
• REPLUMBED
• NEW TOILETS
• NEW VANITIES
• TEXTURED CEILING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Has association (Shadow Wood Association); Association amenities include grounds maintenance, full-time management, off-site management, and trash service; Monthly association fee of $350 (includes grounds maintenance and trash)

Exterior

• Parking: Additional parking; Assigned parking
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Entry level: 1; Property is attached; Residential use
• Construction: Wood siding
• Exterior features: Patio; Back yard with wood fencing; Smoke detector(s); City street frontage; Asphalt road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric cooktop; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Primary bathroom with tub and shower; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-294/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (2.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.9% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lone Star Elementary School (math 62% / reading 52%, grade C+, #781 of 2,144 statewide, top 38%, 386 students, 59% FRL); Landmark Middle School (math 48% / reading 44%, grade D+, #300 of 571 statewide, top 53%, 1,077 students, 50% FRL); Sandalwood High School (math 53% / reading 46%, grade D, #179 of 667 statewide, top 29%, 2,771 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 227 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 319 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 319 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.11%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.64%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $268,736
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11187 Mikris Dr N	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,322 (+2%)	0mo	$319,000	$241	54
11896 Ashbrook Cir	0.59mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,323 (+2%)	8mo	$244,000	$184	52
12751 Ashbrook Cir E	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,323 (+2%)	12mo	$200,000	$151	52
11663 Ft Caroline Lakes Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,467 (+14%)	14mo	$259,000	$177	47
11526 Monument Lake Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,398 (+8%)	21mo	$314,000	$225	47
2092 Broad Oak Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,464 (+13%)	11mo	$305,000	$208	46
11222 Monument Landing Blvd	0.56mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,422 (+10%)	5mo	$295,000	$207	44
1527 Monument Oaks Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,375 (+6%)	14mo	$375,000	$273	42
11346 Skimmer Ct	0.57mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,467 (+14%)	1mo	$275,000	$187	41
11182 Mikris Dr N	0.68mi	2/2.0	1,217 (-6%)	19mo	$271,000	$223	39
11190 Mikris Dr N	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,342 (+4%)	17mo	$345,900	$258	39
11866 Ashbrook Cir N	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,463 (+13%)	4mo	$228,000	$156	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-33,236
• Equity at exit: $24,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-50,060
• Equity at exit: $14,258

Cash invested: $46,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32225

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 227
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$129 /mo · $1,546/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$350
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,788

Max offer price $160,569

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $22	+0% $-25	+5% $-71	+10% $-118
Rent	-10% $-163	-5% $-94	+0% $-25	+5% $45	+10% $114
Rate	-1.0pp $59	-0.5pp $17	base $-25	+0.5pp $-67	+1.0pp $-111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,225
• Closing costs: $4,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11406 Bedford Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1122	$1,500	$1.34	0d	1	0.12mi
11406 Bedford Oaks Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1122	$1,500	$1.34	6d	1	0.12mi
11728 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1464	$1,895	$1.29	4d	1	0.19mi
11671 Tanager Dr Unit 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	16d	1	0.28mi
11172 Tanager Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$1,900	$1.35	26d	1	0.38mi
11548 Willet Ct N Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1633	$1,800	$1.10	18d	1	0.46mi
11458 Willet Ct S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1505	$2,225	$1.48	0d	1	0.56mi
12021 McCormick Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1214	$1,512	$1.25	0d	4	0.75mi
3054 Cobblewood Ln W Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.5	1480	$1,950	$1.32	23d	1	0.83mi
3333 Monument Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	862	$1,369	$1.59	0d	15	0.93mi
3027 Candlewyck Ln E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1446	$2,500	$1.73	0d	1	0.96mi
12036 Arbor Lake Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	2.0	1233	$1,795	$1.46	26d	1	1.05mi
3363 Hampstead Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1551	$2,350	$1.52	19d	1	1.24mi
12301 Kernan Forest Blvd Jacksonville, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1452	$1,700	$1.17	0d	3	1.27mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1597	$2,375	$1.49	6d	1	1.50mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir E Unit 1 1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,275	$1.42	0d	1	1.50mi
12423 Forest Lake Cir N #1 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1597	$2,275	$1.42	4d	1	1.50mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $350 · $4,200/yr
• Likely covers: electriclandscapingexterior maint.

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $164,900 Active 319 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,900 Active 316 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,900 Active 315 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,900 Active 314 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,900 Active 313 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 306 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 305 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $164,900 Active 301 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 300 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 299 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 298 DOM
13. 2026-05-11
    price $164,900
14. 2026-03-17
    price $169,900
15. 2026-01-25
    price $174,900
16. 2025-12-23
    price $175,000
17. 2025-11-08
    price $179,900
18. 2025-09-25
    price $185,000
19. 2025-09-12
    price $189,900
20. 2025-08-06
    listed $195,000 Active
21. 2023-07-07
    soldstatus $155,000
22. 2023-06-30
    soldstatus $155,000 Sold 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Don't miss out to buy an affordable townhome off Monument!! This townhome has 2 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and GREAT floor plan with an open kitchen. Come paint and decorate it to your liking and ENJOY!! Roof replaced in 2020, AC replaced in 2021, and electrical panel updated in 2022. The association is responsible for the exterior maintenance and repairs plus landscaping care.

23. 2023-06-30
    status Pending 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Don't miss out to buy an affordable townhome off Monument!! This townhome has 2 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and GREAT floor plan with an open kitchen. Come paint and decorate it to your liking and ENJOY!! Roof replaced in 2020, AC replaced in 2021, and electrical panel updated in 2022. The association is responsible for the exterior maintenance and repairs plus landscaping care.

24. 2023-05-30
    historical Active - Contingent 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Don't miss out to buy an affordable townhome off Monument!! This townhome has 2 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and GREAT floor plan with an open kitchen. Come paint and decorate it to your liking and ENJOY!! Roof replaced in 2020, AC replaced in 2021, and electrical panel updated in 2022. The association is responsible for the exterior maintenance and repairs plus landscaping care.

25. 2023-05-23
    listed $150,000 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    LOCATION! LOCATION! LOCATION! Don't miss out to buy an affordable townhome off Monument!! This townhome has 2 large bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and GREAT floor plan with an open kitchen. Come paint and decorate it to your liking and ENJOY!! Roof replaced in 2020, AC replaced in 2021, and electrical panel updated in 2022. The association is responsible for the exterior maintenance and repairs plus landscaping care.

26. 1978-12-11
    soldstatus $39,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,546 · $129/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,237
• − Property taxes: −$1,546
• − Insurance: −$824
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,686
• − Management: −$1,686
• − HOA: −$4,200
• − Depreciation: −$4,797
• Taxable loss: −$2,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,905
• Household income: $90,559
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1670.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 14% Black 14% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -191.73%
• Current HPI: 307.1292
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.45%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+322.8% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $164,900 realMLS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $169,900 realMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $174,900 realMLS
• 2025-12-23 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $179,900 realMLS
• 2025-09-25 Price Changed $185,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $189,900 realMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listed $195,000 realMLS
• 2023-07-07 Sold (Public Records) $155,000 Public Records
• 2023-06-30 Sold (MLS) $155,000 realMLS
• 2023-06-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-05-30 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-05-23 Listed $150,000 realMLS
• 1978-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,546 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.