25545 Lakeshore Dr · Splendora, TX 77372

$179,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1974 1.09 ac lot Est $216k · 17% under ↓ 36% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming and move-in ready, this 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home offers 1,440 square feet of comfortable living space on a spacious 1.09-acre lot. The property has been thoughtfully updated with a renovated kitchen and bathroom, fresh paint, and new flooring throughout. Enjoy the convenience of an attached garage and a carport, providing ample parking and storage. Clean and well-maintained, this home is a perfect blend of modern updates and peaceful country living.

Key facts

• Renovated bathroom
• Modern updates
• Ample parking

Tags

• RENOVATED KITCHEN
• RENOVATED BATHROOM
• SPACIOUS LOT
• AMPLE PARKING
• MODERN UPDATES
• PEACEFUL COUNTRY LIVING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 space)
• Utilities: Public sewer and septic tank available
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1974
• Construction: Cement siding and wood siding construction; Block foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first floor (including primary bedroom)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $190 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 5.2% in Splendora — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#911 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Splendora ISD (rural): math 25% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #648 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Piney Woods El (math 23% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,982 of 4,322 statewide, top 70%, 534 students, 55% FRL); Splendora J H (math 28% / reading 42%, grade F, #842 of 1,662 statewide, top 51%, 774 students, 62% FRL); Splendora H S (math 18% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,170 of 1,632 statewide, top 72%, 1,344 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools at 59% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 542 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,315 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.54%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,000
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25521 Lakeshore Dr	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,296 (-10%)	9mo	$195,000	$150	71

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-16,884
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,008
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77372

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 542
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,826 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$239 /mo · $2,870/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$383
• Net cashflow: $190

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,585

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 13 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $179,000 Active 12 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $179,000 Active 11 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $179,000 Active 8 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 7 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 6 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 5 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 4 DOM
15. 2026-05-27
    listed $199,900 Active
16. 2025-09-11
    historical
17. 2025-06-24
    listed $230,000 Active
18. 2025-06-16
    historical
19. 2025-06-11
    price $280,000
20. 2025-05-08
    listed $310,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,870 · $239/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,276 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$406/yr (+$34/mo · 14.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,906
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,870
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,752
• − Management: −$1,752
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$598
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$143
• After-tax cash flow: $2,420/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Splendora ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841070
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $54,166
• Composite: 24.92/100
• National rank: #7572
• State rank: #648 of 826 in TX

Livability — Splendora

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #911
• US rank: #16335

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 14,367
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,367
• Household income: $79,085
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 135.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (61%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 9% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -6.47%
• Current HPI: 306.9962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-35.5% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2025-09-11 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-24 Listed $230,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-06-11 Price Changed $280,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $310,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+11.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,870 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.