1707 Lindy Ln · Conroe, TX 77301

$207,800

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1982 7,846 sqft lot Est $231k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Estate Sale. House original and ready for move-in. Large rooms and full sized master bath. Encloded Covered Patio builtin to roof line and potential living area.

Key facts

• Bonus room
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• TILE BACKSPLASH
• BONUS ROOM
• BUILT IN CABINETS
• FULLY FENCED BACKYARD

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story entry level
• Construction: Built in 1982; Brick and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot setting; Back yard fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Garbage disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bathroom; Three additional bedrooms on the first floor (approx. 13x10, 13x11, 17x17)
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Granite counters; Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Wood-burning fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $208k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-59 ($-709/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $197k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (14.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (14.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.1% in Conroe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 61% FRL vs 34% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 486 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,630 (14.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.22%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $230,728
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1712 Lindy Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,452 (-5%)	4mo	$185,000	$127	86
1701 Rebecca Ln	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-8%)	1mo	$199,000	$142	82
1621 Cantrell Blvd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,658 (+8%)	3mo	$249,900	$151	70
123 West Canopy Crossing Cir	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,459 (-4%)	2mo	$229,990	$158	68
1722 Rebecca Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,303 (-15%)	3mo	$175,000	$134	67
1614 Juniper Knoll Way	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,556 (+2%)	0mo	$225,000	$145	67
115 West Canopy Crossing Cir	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (+4%)	2mo	$239,990	$151	63
1707 Hickory Burl Ln	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,468 (-4%)	1mo	$195,000	$133	61
1324 Clear Cedar Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,373 (-10%)	3mo	$312,990	$228	59
1878 Brushy Cedar Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,484 (-3%)	2mo	$229,990	$155	59
1409 Natural Pine Trl	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-14%)	3mo	$205,000	$155	53
1620 Hickory Burl Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,658 (+8%)	0mo	$259,900	$157	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,156
• Equity at exit: $30,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-50,625
• Equity at exit: $17,967

Cash invested: $58,184 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77301

• Home prices YoY: -8.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 486
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,776 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,090
• Tax from tax record: −$286 /mo · $3,433/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,851

Max offer price $197,360

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,950
• Closing costs: $6,234
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1723 Hazelwood St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	43d	1	0.19mi
1442 Natural Pine Trl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	1848	$1,656	$0.90	13d	1	0.54mi
1702 Campos Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2220	$2,050	$0.92	43d	1	0.69mi
727 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,650	$1.23	12d	1	0.72mi
719 Long Cedar Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1459	$1,595	$1.09	43d	1	0.72mi
1307 Vincente Ct Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1860	$2,300	$1.24	43d	1	0.91mi
3006 Twisted Myrtle Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1311	$1,759	$1.34	15d	1	1.11mi
800 N FM 3083 Rd W Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	913	$1,600	$1.75	1d	16	1.22mi
2617 Castille Valley Pl Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,800	$1.07	2d	1	1.24mi
1530 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	3.0	1845	$1,900	$1.03	21d	1	1.29mi
1558 San Sebastien Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,750	$1.04	2d	1	1.34mi
511 N 3rd St Conroe, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,695	$1.54	3d	1	1.39mi
817 Lovebug Ln Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,595	$1.25	12d	1	1.41mi
805 Belvedere Dr Conroe, TX	4.0	2.0	1577	$1,624	$1.03	20d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,800 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $207,800 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $207,800 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,800 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 667-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $207,800 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,433 · $286/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,803 · $317/mo
• Expected delta: +$370/yr (+$31/mo · 10.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,316
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,640
• − Property taxes: −$3,433
• − Insurance: −$1,039
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,705
• − Management: −$1,705
• − Depreciation: −$6,045
• Taxable loss: −$4,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,020
• After-tax cash flow: $311/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,769
• Household income: $66,475
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1256.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 31% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 45% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -25.51%
• Current HPI: 278.6662
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.43%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+136.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $207,800 HARMLS
• 2012-10-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-08-22 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-07-29 Listed $87,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,433 · -11.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.