445 N Capitol Ave #430 · San Jose, CA 95133

$399,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,508 sqft · Manufactured · 183 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $265/sqft · 42% above area Est $281k · 42% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.1/30.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Explore this stunning 2025 home located in the Community of La Buona Vita. A corner lot home, approximately 1,508 square feet, it features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Upon entering, youll find a ceiling fan with lights and elegant laminate flooring. The kitchen boasts an island, stove, oven, refrigerator, cabinets, garbage disposal, correon countertops and ceiling lights, making it a perfect space for cooking and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom is carpeted, walk in closet, complete with ceiling lights and a fan. The guest bedrooms are also carpeted. The master bathroom features double sinks, laminate flooring, a glass sliding door, and additional cabinets. The guest bathroom is equipped with ceiling lights, cabinets, a tub and a shower. Double Pane Windows and central heat included. The backyard is generously sized, ideal for a BBQ area, and includes one shed. Don't miss out-Stop by today!

Key facts

• Corner lot home
• Kitchen island
• Correon countertops

Tags

• CORNER LOT HOME
• CEILING FAN WITH LIGHTS
• ELEGANT LAMINATE FLOORING
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• CORREON COUNTERTOPS
• SPACIOUS MASTER BEDROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $400k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $641 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $400k).
• Recommended offer: $352k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.6% in San Jose — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#68 in CA, #2,559 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living F.
• East Side Union High (urban): math 53% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #69 of 517 in CA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 51 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,838 units permitted in Santa Clara County in 2024 (1,886 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($142k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Clara County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 183 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $351,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 183 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.86%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $280,785
• List price: $399,900
• Delta: 42.42%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 GIANNOTTA Way Unit ,	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	6mo	$415,000	$288	85
440 Giannotta Way #440	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-4%)	13mo	$300,000	$208	79
401 Giannotta Way Unit .	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (-4%)	10mo	$275,000	$191	78
445 Giannotta #445	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-11%)	9mo	$285,000	$212	73
442 Giannotta Way #442	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-11%)	18mo	$240,000	$179	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-17,787
• Equity at exit: $59,626

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $63,291
• Equity at exit: $34,576

Cash invested: $111,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City San Jose: 0 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+24

Apartment Rent Ordinance covers pre-1979 multifamily.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95133

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,309 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,097
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$500 /mo · $5,998/yr
• Insurance: −$167
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$905
• Net cashflow: $641

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,498

Max offer price $399,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,975
• Closing costs: $11,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
586 Jayne Ct San Jose, CA	4.0	2.5	1720	$4,500	$2.62	1d	1	0.09mi
586 Jayne Ct San Jose, CA	4.0	2.5	1720	$4,651	$2.70	10d	1	0.09mi
2583 Gimelli Way #74 San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1103	$3,500	$3.17	16d	1	0.18mi
2726 Mabury Sq San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,880	$3.01	2d	1	0.55mi
327 Hans Way San Jose, CA	3.0	2.5	1404	$3,800	$2.71	2d	1	0.56mi
828 N Jackson Ave San Jose, CA	4.0	3.0	1596	$4,500	$2.82	2d	1	0.75mi
292 Grecia Ct San Jose, CA	3.0	1.5	1180	$3,200	$2.71	1d	1	0.87mi
49 Muirfield Ct San Jose, CA	2.0	1.5	1054	$2,998	$2.84	1d	1	1.03mi
2073 Kiwi Walkway #1673 San Jose, CA	2.0	2.5	1300	$3,470	$2.67	1d	1	1.10mi
2070 Vincenzo Walkway San Jose, CA	4.0	4.0	1722	$4,924	$2.86	10d	1	1.12mi
1105 Pepper Rd San Jose, CA	3.0	3.0	1489	$4,400	$2.96	1d	1	1.13mi
3410 Pepper Tree Ln San Jose, CA	3.0	1.5	1088	$12,800	$11.76	1d	1	1.21mi
2601 Nuestra Castillo Ct San Jose, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1154	$3,960	$3.43	1d	1	1.30mi
1621 Pala Ranch Cir San Jose, CA	4.0	2.5	2210	$4,800	$2.17	1d	1	1.42mi
152 N 34th St San Jose, CA	3.0	2.0	1500	$3,800	$2.53	43d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,900 Active 183 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 178 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,900 Active 177 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,900 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,900 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,900 Active 172 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $399,900 Active 169 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,900 Active 168 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,900 Active 167 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,900 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,900 Active 165 DOM
15. 2025-12-17
    listed $409,900 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Explore this stunning 2025 home located in the Community of La Buona Vita. A corner lot home, approximately 1,508 square feet, it features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Upon entering, youll find a ceiling fan with lights and elegant laminate flooring. The kitchen boasts an island, stove, oven, refrigerator, cabinets, garbage disposal, correon countertops and ceiling lights, making it a perfect space for cooking and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom is carpeted, walk in closet, complete with ceiling lights and a fan. The guest bedrooms are also carpeted. The master bathroom features double sinks, laminate flooring, a glass sliding door, and additional cabinets. The guest bathroom is equipped with ceiling lights, cabinets, a tub and a shower. Double Pane Windows and central heat included. The backyard is generously sized, ideal for a BBQ area, and includes one shed. Don't miss out-Stop by today!

16. 2025-12-17
    listed $409,900 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    Explore this stunning 2025 home located in the Community of La Buona Vita. A corner lot home, approximately 1,508 square feet, it features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Upon entering, youll find a ceiling fan with lights and elegant laminate flooring. The kitchen boasts an island, stove, oven, refrigerator, cabinets, garbage disposal, correon countertops and ceiling lights, making it a perfect space for cooking and entertaining. The spacious master bedroom is carpeted, walk in closet, complete with ceiling lights and a fan. The guest bedrooms are also carpeted. The master bathroom features double sinks, laminate flooring, a glass sliding door, and additional cabinets. The guest bathroom is equipped with ceiling lights, cabinets, a tub and a shower. Double Pane Windows and central heat included. The backyard is generously sized, ideal for a BBQ area, and includes one shed. Don't miss out-Stop by today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 23 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,708
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,401
• − Property taxes: −$5,998
• − Insurance: −$2,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,137
• − Management: −$4,137
• − Depreciation: −$11,633
• Taxable income: $1,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$337
• After-tax cash flow: $7,349/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready for immediate occupancy and would benefit from minor updates to enhance curb appeal and modernize the interior.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace ceiling fans with modern fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Side Union High
• NCES district ID: 0611820
• Math proficiency: 53% ▲ 12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▲ 8.00%
• Median HH income: $80,293
• Composite: 55.15/100
• National rank: #1278
• State rank: #69 of 517 in CA

Livability — San Jose

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #68
• US rank: #2559

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Jose, CA
• County: Santa Clara County · 1,806,974 people
• City population: 954,479
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• Population (ZIP): 29,710
• Household income: $142,170
• Rent vs Own: 44.6% rent · 55.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 859.0

Population outlook (Santa Clara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,179,074 people
• By 2030: 2,301,297 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 2,528,195 · +16.0%
• By 2050: 2,712,135 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 2,998,701 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 2,931,429 · +34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 61% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 9% White 8% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 56% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 28% English-only · Spanish 18% Vietnamese 17% Chinese 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Clara

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+40.0) · D 68.1% · R 28.1% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.9pp no change · 2008: 40.9pp · 2024: 40.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+40.0 2020: D+47.4 2016: D+52.5 2012: D+42.1 2008: D+40.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1026.89%
• Current HPI: 298.019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Metro: San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-17 Listed $409,900 MLSListings
• 2025-12-17 Listed $409,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR