12475 Fm 1681 · Nixon, TX 78140

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 60 Days on market

Built 1950 0.90 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Situated on the outskirts of Nixon, this property sits on just under an acre. It is being sold AS-IS, and is priced with its condition in mind and presents a chance to create value. The home and structures are in need of significant repairs. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• 0.9 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $278 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#878 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Nixon-Smiley CISD (rural): math 38% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #451 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 135 units permitted in Wilson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $412 of equity ($552 loan paydown + $-140 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Wilson County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-0.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 79% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.92%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.17% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $14,740
• Equity at exit: $22,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $45,459
• Equity at exit: $26,502

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78140

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,051 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$100 /mo · $1,198/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $278

Break-even live

Break-even rent $699

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $79,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $79,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $79,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    pricedays on market $79,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $89,900 Active 270-char remark

    Show marketing remark (270 chars)

    Situated on the outskirts of Nixon, this property sits on just under an acre. It is being sold AS-IS, and is priced with its condition in mind and presents a chance to create value. The home and structures are in need of significant repairs. Schedule your showing today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,198 · $100/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,462 · $122/mo
• Expected delta: +$264/yr (+$22/mo · 22.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 69% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 79% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,198
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,009
• − Management: −$1,009
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $2,196
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $2,811/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nixon-Smiley CISD
• NCES district ID: 4832740
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $38,887
• Composite: 32.6/100
• National rank: #5674
• State rank: #451 of 826 in TX

Livability — Nixon

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #878
• US rank: #15855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,190

Population outlook (Wilson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,434 people
• By 2030: 63,912 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 74,704 · +27.8%
• By 2050: 85,024 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 111,025 · +90.0%
• By 2100: 126,692 · +116.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% White 27% Two or more races 23% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Wilson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.9% · R 76.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -33.9pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+48.4 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.17%
• Current HPI: 151.751
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $89,900 CTXMLS

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,198 · +5.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.