5951 Westwood Rd · Middleburg, FL 32234

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,566 sqft · Manufactured public records · 151 Days on market

Built 1989 1.16 ac lot Est $196k · 28% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.8/10.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Manufactured home on over an acre parcel with septic and well in Clay county. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Newer roof. Updated kitchen, flooring, and bathrooms. NO HOA.

Key facts

• Roomy layout
• Clay hill area
• 1.16 acres

Tags

• 1.16 ACRES
• CLAY HILL AREA
• ROOMY LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $351 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 3.8% in Middleburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#657 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 232 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($968 loan paydown + $630 appreciation (0.5% local appreciation)).
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.56%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $195,750
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1631 Westwood Ct	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (-0%)	2mo	$130,000	$83	85
5999 Westwood Rd	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,524 (-3%)	20mo	$190,000	$125	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $21,376
• Equity at exit: $43,832

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $69,810
• Equity at exit: $55,297

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32234

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 232
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,932 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$406
• Net cashflow: $351

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,488

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-03-31
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-20
   price $140,000
3. 2025-10-31
   listed $160,000 Active
4. 2024-12-05
   historical 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Manufactured home on over an acre parcel with septic and well in Clay county. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Newer roof. Updated kitchen, flooring, and bathrooms. NO HOA.

5. 2024-09-23
   status Active 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Manufactured home on over an acre parcel with septic and well in Clay county. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Newer roof. Updated kitchen, flooring, and bathrooms. NO HOA.

6. 2024-07-18
   historical Active Under Contract 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Manufactured home on over an acre parcel with septic and well in Clay county. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Newer roof. Updated kitchen, flooring, and bathrooms. NO HOA.

7. 2024-07-09
   listed $189,000 Active 174-char remark

   Show marketing remark (174 chars)

   Manufactured home on over an acre parcel with septic and well in Clay county. Three bedrooms and two full baths. Newer roof. Updated kitchen, flooring, and bathrooms. NO HOA.

8. 2023-04-18
   soldstatus $200,000
9. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $200,000 Sold 265-char remark

   Show marketing remark (265 chars)

   Move in ready home on over an acre of land in Clay County for under $200,000.00! Property features brand new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, all new flooring throughout, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Plenty of room for RV's boats, and other toys.

10. 2023-03-16
    status Pending 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Move in ready home on over an acre of land in Clay County for under $200,000.00! Property features brand new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, all new flooring throughout, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Plenty of room for RV's boats, and other toys.

11. 2023-03-06
    historical Active - Contingent 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Move in ready home on over an acre of land in Clay County for under $200,000.00! Property features brand new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, all new flooring throughout, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Plenty of room for RV's boats, and other toys.

12. 2023-03-02
    listed $199,900 Active 265-char remark

    Show marketing remark (265 chars)

    Move in ready home on over an acre of land in Clay County for under $200,000.00! Property features brand new roof, updated kitchen and bathrooms, all new flooring throughout, and brand new stainless steel appliances! Plenty of room for RV's boats, and other toys.

13. 2023-02-03
    historical
14. 2023-02-03
    status Pending
15. 2023-01-25
    historical Active - Contingent
16. 2023-01-23
    price $194,900
17. 2022-11-28
    status Active
18. 2022-11-28
    status Pending
19. 2022-11-16
    historical Active - Contingent
20. 2022-11-14
    price $199,900
21. 2022-10-28
    price $210,000
22. 2022-10-20
    price $218,000
23. 2022-10-04
    status Active
24. 2022-09-29
    status Pending
25. 2022-09-24
    historical Active - Contingent
26. 2022-09-20
    price $223,000
27. 2022-08-29
    price $229,500
28. 2022-08-26
    price $234,500
29. 2022-08-19
    price $235,000
30. 2022-08-09
    listed $237,500 Active
31. 2022-05-27
    soldstatus $130,000
32. 2022-05-12
    soldstatus $75,000
33. 2006-03-20
    soldstatus $36,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,098 · $258/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$3,098
• − Insurance: −$2,202
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,855
• − Management: −$1,855
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $2,261
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$543
• After-tax cash flow: $3,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Middleburg

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #657
• US rank: #13174

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 58,983
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,678
• Household income: $87,331
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 62.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Black 16% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.45%
• Current HPI: 288.4613
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+283.6% since first listed

33 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-02-20 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $160,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-09-23 Relisted — realMLS
• 2024-07-18 Contingent — realMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $189,000 realMLS
• 2023-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2023-04-10 Sold (MLS) $200,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-16 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-03-06 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-03-02 Listed $199,900 realMLS
• 2023-02-03 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2023-02-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2023-01-25 Contingent — realMLS
• 2023-01-23 Price Changed $194,900 realMLS
• 2022-11-28 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-11-28 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-11-16 Contingent — realMLS
• 2022-11-14 Price Changed $199,900 realMLS
• 2022-10-28 Price Changed $210,000 realMLS
• 2022-10-20 Price Changed $218,000 realMLS
• 2022-10-04 Relisted — realMLS
• 2022-09-29 Pending — realMLS
• 2022-09-24 Contingent — realMLS
• 2022-09-20 Price Changed $223,000 realMLS
• 2022-08-29 Price Changed $229,500 realMLS
• 2022-08-26 Price Changed $234,500 realMLS
• 2022-08-19 Price Changed $235,000 realMLS
• 2022-08-09 Listed $237,500 realMLS
• 2022-05-27 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-12 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2006-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $36,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+13.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,098 · +11.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.