Palm Springs Plan · North Sarasota, FL 34234

$194,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,251 sqft · Manufactured · 58 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.4/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Winds of St. Armands South, a premier 55+ age-qualified community where an active and vibrant lifestyle meets the comfort of your dream home. We are proud to showcase a stunning, brand-new 2026 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home for sale, featuring 1,251.84 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the heart of Sarasota, this property offers the ultimate blend of modern luxury and timeless coastal charm. Step inside to find an airy, open-concept floor plan accented by sleek flooring, high ceilings, and a ton of natural light that pours through every room. The gourmet kitchen boasts premium stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, making it a true centerpiece for both everyday living and elegant entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a spa-inspired en-suite featuring dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide excellent versatility for guests, a quiet home office, or a creative hobby space. Outside, you will enjoy a private covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping, creating an ideal setting for morning coffee or unwinding after a day in the sun. Located in the highly desirable Winds of St. Armands South, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool, a modern fitness center, a clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. This home is also conveniently situated near the world-class shopping and dining of St.

Key facts

• Clubhouse
• Resort style pool
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• LOW MAINTENANCE LANDSCAPING
• RESORT STYLE POOL
• MODERN FITNESS CENTER
• CLUBHOUSE

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $195k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $404 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $195k).
• Recommended offer: $189k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#349 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: commute D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.1%/yr); 268 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,216/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($57k/yr) (locally 1306% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,053 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.14% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.88%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-12,319
• Equity at exit: $29,060

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,567
• Equity at exit: $16,851

Cash invested: $54,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34234

• Rents YoY: -3.1%
• Active inventory: 268
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,022
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$244 /mo · $2,924/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $404

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,705

Max offer price $194,900

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $539	-5% $471	+0% $404	+5% $337	+10% $269
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $316	+0% $404	+5% $491	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $502	-0.5pp $453	base $404	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,725
• Closing costs: $5,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $194,900 Active 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $194,900 Active 57 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $194,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $194,900 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $194,900 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $194,900 Active 49 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $194,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $194,900 Active 44 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $194,900 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $194,900 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $194,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $194,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-04-22
    listed $194,900 Active 1498-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Winds of St. Armands South, a premier 55+ age-qualified community where an active and vibrant lifestyle meets the comfort of your dream home. We are proud to showcase a stunning, brand-new 2026 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home for sale, featuring 1,251.84 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the heart of Sarasota, this property offers the ultimate blend of modern luxury and timeless coastal charm. Step inside to find an airy, open-concept floor plan accented by sleek flooring, high ceilings, and a ton of natural light that pours through every room. The gourmet kitchen boasts premium stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, making it a true centerpiece for both everyday living and elegant entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a spa-inspired en-suite featuring dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide excellent versatility for guests, a quiet home office, or a creative hobby space. Outside, you will enjoy a private covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping, creating an ideal setting for morning coffee or unwinding after a day in the sun. Located in the highly desirable Winds of St. Armands South, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool, a modern fitness center, a clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. This home is also conveniently situated near the world-class shopping and dining of St. A

15. 2026-04-22
    listed $194,900 Active 1500-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1500 chars)

    55+ age qualified community. Welcome to Winds of St. Armands South, a premier 55+ age-qualified community where an active and vibrant lifestyle meets the comfort of your dream home. We are proud to showcase a stunning, brand-new 2026 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home for sale, featuring 1,251.84 sq. ft. of beautifully designed living space. Perfectly situated in the heart of Sarasota, this property offers the ultimate blend of modern luxury and timeless coastal charm. Step inside to find an airy, open-concept floor plan accented by sleek flooring, high ceilings, and a ton of natural light that pours through every room. The gourmet kitchen boasts premium stainless steel appliances and custom cabinetry, making it a true centerpiece for both everyday living and elegant entertaining. The spacious primary suite offers a peaceful retreat, complete with a spa-inspired en-suite featuring dual vanities and a large walk-in closet. Additional bedrooms provide excellent versatility for guests, a quiet home office, or a creative hobby space. Outside, you will enjoy a private covered patio and low-maintenance landscaping, creating an ideal setting for morning coffee or unwinding after a day in the sun. Located in the highly desirable Winds of St. Armands South, residents enjoy access to a range of premium amenities, including a resort-style pool, a modern fitness center, a clubhouse, and shuffleboard courts. This home is also conveniently situated near the world-class shopping and dining of St. A

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,595
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,917
• − Property taxes: −$2,924
• − Insurance: −$974
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,128
• − Management: −$2,128
• − Depreciation: −$5,670
• Taxable income: $1,854
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$445
• After-tax cash flow: $4,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This brand-new 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home in a 55+ age-qualified community is move-in ready with excellent condition and no repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a big difference in curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting — Fresh paint can make a big difference in curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Well-maintained yard enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — North Sarasota

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #6050

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety A- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• City population: 261,896
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,986
• Household income: $57,288
• Rent vs Own: 40.5% rent · 59.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 31% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Hispanic 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -229.06%
• Current HPI: 305.6629
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.15%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Listed $194,900 Zillow
• 2026-04-22 Listed $194,900 Zillow