28807 Golden Wheat Ct · Houston, TX 77447

$259,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,924 sqft · SingleFamily · 14 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $100/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Dowing Floor Plan - This new four-bedroom home offers convenient single-story living. A bedroom is secluded near the front of the home, leading to an inviting and spacious open-concept layout shared between the kitchen, dining room and family room. Three additional bedrooms are tucked away to the side for improved comfort and privacy, including the lavish owner’s suite at the back of the home with a full bathroom and walk-in closet. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association (CCMC) with annual fee of $1,200

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all main rooms listed on the first floor); Slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Back yard fence; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 13); Additional bedrooms on the first floor (12 x 11; 10 x 13; 10 x 11)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen and family room combo; Separate shower; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $259,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $313,990.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-226 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (0.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (0.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: I T Holleman El (math 33% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 688 students, 70% FRL); Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1782 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 12582% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,696 (0.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.43%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.09%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $313,990
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -17.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
28807 Golden Wheat Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,924 (0%)	1mo	$259,990	$135	99
28803 Golden Wheat Ct	0.01mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-8%)	1mo	$275,440	$155	86
16122 Domestic Dove Way	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,776 (-8%)	0mo	$250,990	$141	82
27242 Wheat Falls Ln	0.37mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,908 (-1%)	0mo	$281,640	$148	76
29067 Bison Haven Dr	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,083 (+8%)	0mo	$305,290	$147	67
16311 Golden Corral Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-9%)	1mo	$326,990	$187	62
16847 Spotted Oak Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+7%)	0mo	$259,440	$126	56
16839 Old Wagon Way	0.68mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+7%)	1mo	$234,990	$114	56
28534 Golden Hay Dr	0.70mi	4/2.0	2,066 (+7%)	0mo	$248,000	$120	55
16850 Old Wagon Way	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-13%)	1mo	$286,990	$172	44
28518 Golden Hay Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,670 (-13%)	1mo	$241,140	$144	44
28514 Golden Hay Dr	0.71mi	4/2.0	1,644 (-15%)	1mo	$282,990	$172	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-72,768
• Equity at exit: $46,817

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-110,808
• Equity at exit: $27,148

Cash invested: $87,917 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1782
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,587 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$392 /mo · $4,710/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$543
• Net cashflow: $-226

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,873

Max offer price $281,257

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9	-5% $-118	+0% $-226	+5% $-335	+10% $-443
Rent	-10% $-431	-5% $-328	+0% $-226	+5% $-124	+10% $-22
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-146	base $-226	+0.5pp $-308	+1.0pp $-390

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,498
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16315 Mesquite Field Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1500	$2,600	$1.73	44d	1	0.13mi
29023 Pearl Barley Way Unit 3656 Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	2395	$2,300	$0.96	24d	1	0.51mi
16722 Old Wagon Way Hockley, TX	4.0	2.0	1880	$1,790	$0.95	44d	1	0.57mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 602-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   price $259,990 602-char remark
3. 2026-04-30
   price $267,990 602-char remark
4. 2026-04-24
   listed $272,990 Active 602-char remark
5. 2026-04-24
   historical
6. 2026-04-14
   price $272,990
7. 2026-04-09
   price $278,690
8. 2026-04-06
   price $318,990
9. 2026-04-01
   price $311,690
10. 2026-03-19
    price $302,340
11. 2026-03-16
    price $292,290
12. 2026-03-12
    price $282,240
13. 2026-03-03
    listed $266,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X · 90% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,044
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,588
• − Property taxes: −$4,710
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,483
• − Management: −$2,483
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$9,134
• Taxable loss: −$8,126
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,950
• After-tax cash flow: $-764/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-story home offers a good condition with a modern and inviting interior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic improvements that can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters.
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to tech-savvy buyers and renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the flooring in the bathrooms — Updated flooring can make bathrooms more appealing to potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-99.2% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed for Rent $2,050 HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $267,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $272,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $272,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $278,690 HARMLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $318,990 HARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $311,690 HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $302,340 HARMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $292,290 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $282,240 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $266,990 HARMLS