1306 Johnson St W · Staunton, VA 24401

$225,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1929 7,405 sqft lot Est $240k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CHARMING,AFFORDABLE 2-STORY NEAR DNTN STN!REFIN WOOD FLRS,VINTAGE MANTLE/MIRROR UNITS, TILT WINDOWS,FURNACE NEW `03,COUNTRY KIT,PRIV SITTING PORCH,LG YD,OFF-ST PARK,GREAT VIEWS.

Key facts

• Front porch
• Back deck
• Off-street parking

Tags

• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRONT PORCH
• BACK DECK
• OFF-STREET PARKING
• CLOSE TO DOWNTOWN
• CLOSE PROXIMITY TO INTERSTATE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-339/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $220k (2.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $175k (22.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $175k (22.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.9% in Staunton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#56 in VA, #1,524 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Staunton City Public School District (urban): math 48% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #73 of 131 in VA (top 56%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bessie Weller Elementary (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 369 students, 99% FRL); Shelburne Middle (math 43% / reading 66%, grade B-, #194 of 342 statewide, top 60%, 574 students, 99% FRL); Staunton High (math 48% / reading 77%, grade B-, #226 of 319 statewide, top 72%, 822 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 47% district-wide (52 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.8%/yr); 297 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 71 units permitted in Staunton city in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Staunton County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; list at $225k implies a 96% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1929 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $174,940 (22.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1929 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $239,616
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1306 Johnson St W	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,248 (0%)	1mo	$239,000	$192	97
440 Jersey St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-0%)	5mo	$205,000	$165	82
1127 Johnson St W	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-2%)	5mo	$195,000	$159	81
317 York Ave	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+1%)	2mo	$331,000	$263	70
229 Jefferson St N	0.44mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,260 (+1%)	3mo	$260,000	$206	68
216 Thompson St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,150 (-8%)	5mo	$263,900	$229	64
166 Straith St	0.62mi	3/1.0	1,180 (-5%)	2mo	$140,000	$119	60
1624 Packard St	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,336 (+7%)	6mo	$265,000	$198	60
501 Hays Ave	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,154 (-8%)	5mo	$195,000	$169	60
270 Fillmore St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,327 (+6%)	1mo	$165,000	$124	55
110 Hays Ave	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,408 (+13%)	1mo	$250,000	$178	52
102 W Liberty St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,080 (-14%)	4mo	$235,000	$218	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.77% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-33,312
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-9,816
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24401

• Rents YoY: 5.8%
• Active inventory: 297
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,749 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$137 /mo · $1,639/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$367
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,785

Max offer price $220,006

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $99	-5% $35	+0% $-28	+5% $-92	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-166	-5% $-97	+0% $-28	+5% $41	+10% $110
Rate	-1.0pp $85	-0.5pp $29	base $-28	+0.5pp $-87	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1013 Seth Dr Unit 702 Staunton, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,800	$1.38	44d	1	0.29mi
1008 Seth Dr Staunton, VA	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,750	$1.35	44d	1	0.47mi
315 Kalorama St Staunton, VA	2.0	1.0	1000	$850	$0.85	44d	1	0.90mi
818 N Augusta St Staunton, VA	2.0	2.0	1280	$1,995	$1.56	44d	1	0.94mi
2504 Hickory St Unit A Staunton, VA	2.0	2.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   listed $225,000 Active
3. 2015-05-22
   listed $139,000
4. 2005-09-01
   soldstatus $114,900 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   CHARMING,AFFORDABLE 2-STORY NEAR DNTN STN!REFIN WOOD FLRS,VINTAGE MANTLE/MIRROR UNITS, TILT WINDOWS,FURNACE NEW `03,COUNTRY KIT,PRIV SITTING PORCH,LG YD,OFF-ST PARK,GREAT VIEWS.

5. 2005-07-12
   listed $114,900 177-char remark

   Show marketing remark (177 chars)

   CHARMING,AFFORDABLE 2-STORY NEAR DNTN STN!REFIN WOOD FLRS,VINTAGE MANTLE/MIRROR UNITS, TILT WINDOWS,FURNACE NEW `03,COUNTRY KIT,PRIV SITTING PORCH,LG YD,OFF-ST PARK,GREAT VIEWS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,845 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$206/yr (+$17/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,993
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,639
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,679
• − Management: −$1,679
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,279
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $688/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Staunton City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $42,712
• Composite: 48.23/100
• National rank: #2163
• State rank: #73 of 131 in VA

Livability — Staunton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1524

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Staunton, VA
• County: Staunton City · 38,756 people
• City population: 38,756
• Metro: Staunton, VA
• Population (ZIP): 38,756
• Household income: $66,300
• Rent vs Own: 34.7% rent · 65.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Staunton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 25,515 people
• By 2030: 26,060 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 27,024 · +5.9%
• By 2050: 27,926 · +9.4%
• By 2075: 29,334 · +15.0%
• By 2100: 29,046 · +13.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Staunton

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.0% · R 42.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+9.9 2016: D+1.8 2012: D+4.1 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.01%
• Current HPI: 210.049
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.77%
• Metro: Staunton, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+95.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — GAAR
• 2026-04-01 Listed $225,000 GAAR
• 2015-05-22 Listed $139,000 GAAR
• 2005-09-01 Sold (MLS) $114,900 GAAR
• 2005-07-12 Listed $114,900 GAAR

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,639 · +16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.