4833 Churchill Dr · Jackson, MS 39206

$99,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1950 9,147 sqft lot $100/sqft · 115% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 bedroom and 2 bath home in Broadmoor Sdv. in North Jackson. Previously leased for $1,395 per month. Perfect buy for investor or owner occupant. Spacious kitchen with eat in area. Kitchen and bathrooms are updated. Roof is 4-5 years old. Call your agent today!

Key facts

• 9,147 sq ft lot
• Built 1950
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $306 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $94k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#66 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, employment F.
• Jackson Public School District (urban): math 9% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #112 of 130 in MS (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 88% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 167 units permitted in Hinds County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hinds County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.8% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $93,906 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.13%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,710
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: 59.30%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
522 Woodbury Rd	0.06mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,012 (+1%)	1mo	$25,000	$25	89
551 Woodbury Rd	0.13mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,020 (+2%)	16mo	$114,900	$113	72
4875 Churchill Dr	0.08mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,118 (+12%)	3mo	$69,900	$63	69
544 Wellington Rd	0.31mi	2/1.0	1,092 (+9%)	4mo	$79,900	$73	67
556 Robinhood Rd	0.17mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (-4%)	18mo	$54,900	$57	65
4680 Londonderry Dr	0.28mi	3/1.0 (+1)	935 (-6%)	15mo	$59,997	$64	58
313 Lawrence Rd	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,096 (+10%)	15mo	$9,500	$9	58
4801 Maplewood Dr	0.18mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,120 (+12%)	17mo	$63,840	$57	52
736 Woodbury Rd	0.38mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,045 (+4%)	21mo	$110,000	$105	52
772 Broadmoor Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,055 (+6%)	17mo	$24,900	$24	50
125 Camero Dr	0.58mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,143 (+14%)	5mo	$89,900	$79	38
4830 Chastain Drive Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,128 (+13%)	24mo	$145,000	$129	21

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $3,098
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $26,962
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39206

• Home prices YoY: -10.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,240 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,298/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $306

Break-even live

Break-even rent $853

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4858 Sheridan Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,550	$1.19	23d	1	0.03mi
521 Launcelot Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1346	$1,423	$1.06	43d	1	0.10mi
229 Lawrence Rd #229 Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	43d	1	0.24mi
229 Lawrence Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	23d	1	0.24mi
227 Lawrence Rd #227 Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	840	$995	$1.18	43d	1	0.24mi
227 Lawrence Rd Jackson, MS	1.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	23d	1	0.24mi
227 Lawrence Rd Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	840	$900	$1.07	13d	2	0.24mi
4833 N State St Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	994	$1,195	$1.20	43d	1	0.32mi
4627 Estelle Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,475	$0.99	23d	1	0.48mi
214 Melbourne Rd Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1207	$1,500	$1.24	43d	1	0.60mi
4901 McWillie Cir Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	806	$1,150	$1.43	13d	1	0.67mi
5255 Manhattan Rd Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$1,100	$1.35	13d	1	0.68mi
20 N Hill Pkwy Jackson, MS	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1046	$900	$0.86	13d	31	0.76mi
200 Stillwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,300	$1.19	13d	1	0.92mi
200 Stillwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1088	$1,300	$1.19	43d	1	0.92mi
3718 Northbrook Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	942	$1,050	$1.11	23d	1	0.94mi
4426 Desoto St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,250	$1.16	23d	1	1.00mi
4426 Desoto St Jackson, MS	3.0	1.0	1079	$1,250	$1.16	13d	1	1.00mi
815 Berwood Dr Jackson, MS	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,300	$1.04	43d	1	1.27mi
3908 N State St Jackson, MS	1.0	1.0	740	$2,800	$3.78	43d	1	1.30mi
5155 Wayneland Dr Jackson, MS	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	905	$1,500	$1.66	23d	1	1.34mi
3816 N State St Unit 3816 Jackson, MS	1.0	1.0	700	$1,095	$1.56	43d	1	1.35mi
533 Stillwood Dr Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	906	$820	$0.91	13d	1	1.35mi
3811 Mosley Ave Jackson, MS	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,095	$1.09	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 59 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,900 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $99,900 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 52 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 51 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 48 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 47 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 46 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 45 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 44 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $110,000 Active 43 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $110,000 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    4 bedroom and 2 bath home in Broadmoor Sdv. in North Jackson. Previously leased for $1,395 per month. Perfect buy for investor or owner occupant. Spacious kitchen with eat in area. Kitchen and bathrooms are updated. Roof is 4-5 years old. Call your agent today!

18. 2026-04-17
    listed $115,000 Active 261-char remark

    Show marketing remark (261 chars)

    4 bedroom and 2 bath home in Broadmoor Sdv. in North Jackson. Previously leased for $1,395 per month. Perfect buy for investor or owner occupant. Spacious kitchen with eat in area. Kitchen and bathrooms are updated. Roof is 4-5 years old. Call your agent today!

19. 2026-04-13
    historical $1,400
20. 2026-04-09
    listed $1,400
21. 2025-08-10
    historical $1,395
22. 2025-07-08
    listed $1,395
23. 2024-09-17
    soldstatus Closed 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Investor special! 3br/1ba that needs work and priced accordingly. Seller has limited knowledge of the condition of this home and hasn't lived in it for at least 2 years (was a rental recently). Sold as is. Will not go FHA/VA.

24. 2024-09-12
    soldstatus
25. 2024-08-29
    status Pending 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Investor special! 3br/1ba that needs work and priced accordingly. Seller has limited knowledge of the condition of this home and hasn't lived in it for at least 2 years (was a rental recently). Sold as is. Will not go FHA/VA.

26. 2024-08-19
    listed $35,000 Active 225-char remark

    Show marketing remark (225 chars)

    Investor special! 3br/1ba that needs work and priced accordingly. Seller has limited knowledge of the condition of this home and hasn't lived in it for at least 2 years (was a rental recently). Sold as is. Will not go FHA/VA.

27. 2015-01-15
    soldstatus
28. 2015-01-12
    soldstatus
29. 2014-12-12
    listed $7,900
30. 2010-05-07
    soldstatus
31. 2006-08-31
    soldstatus
32. 2004-10-27
    soldstatus
33. 2004-10-26
    soldstatus
34. 2004-05-31
    listed $39,000
35. 1949-12-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,298 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,881
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,298
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $2,201
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$528
• After-tax cash flow: $3,144/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2802190
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $33,234
• Composite: 10.89/100
• National rank: #9755
• State rank: #112 of 130 in MS

Livability — Jackson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #9695

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jackson, MS
• County: Hinds County · 167,040 people
• City population: 140,204
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• Population (ZIP): 23,257
• Household income: $42,686
• Rent vs Own: 54.0% rent · 46.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1554.0

Population outlook (Hinds County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 242,528 people
• By 2030: 241,113 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 235,557 · -2.9%
• By 2050: 226,946 · -6.4%
• By 2075: 199,995 · -17.5%
• By 2100: 164,165 · -32.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 85% White 9% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Hinds

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.1) · D 72.4% · R 26.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: 39.0pp · 2024: 46.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.1 2020: D+48.3 2016: D+43.7 2012: D+45.1 2008: D+39.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -22.38%
• Current HPI: 194.5873
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.83%
• Metro: Jackson, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $110,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-17 Listed $115,000 MLSU
• 2026-04-13 Rental Removed $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-09 Listed for Rent $1,400 APPFOLIO
• 2025-08-10 Rental Removed $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-08 Listed for Rent $1,395 APPFOLIO
• 2024-09-17 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2024-09-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-08-29 Pending — MLSU
• 2024-08-19 Listed $35,000 MLSU
• 2015-01-15 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2015-01-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-12-12 Listed $7,900 MLSU
• 2010-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2006-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-10-27 Sold (MLS) — MLSU
• 2004-10-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2004-05-31 Listed $39,000 MLSU
• 1949-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,298 · +90.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.