2410 Ronita Ln #33 · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$49,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 85 Days on market

Built 1973 $34/sqft · 30% below area Est $70k · 30% under $570/mo HOA · 34% of rent ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

WOW!! you want quiet, this home is in a 55+ community and is immaculate condition, and very quiet. Turnkey with furniture sold separately. Built in 1973, 1,440 sq. ft, 2 bed, 2 bath each bedroom has its own bathroom, pellet stove, 2 new swamp coolers, HUGE covered patio, carport, built-in cabinets in each bedroom and bathrooms. This home is VERY clean and owner is motivated. Close to Lake Isabella for fishing derby, boating, shops, The MIGHTY Kern rive4r for river rafting, fly fishing, brewery, The TRAIL of 100 GIANTS for the giiant redwood sequoia trees her in the Sequoia National Forest. Great place to retire here in the Kern River Valley with only 3 stop lights in the entire valley!!!

Key facts

• New swamp coolers
• Huge covered patio
• Carport

Tags

• TURNKEY
• PELLET STOVE
• NEW SWAMP COOLERS
• HUGE COVERED PATIO
• CARPORT
• BUILT-IN CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $49k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $440 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $49k).
• Recommended offer: $46k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.1% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($339 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($46k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 34% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 11→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $46,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.45% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.49%
• DSCR: 2.71
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $69,577
• List price: $49,000
• Delta: -29.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2410 Ronita Ln #21	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$33,000	$25	88
2404 Clark St	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	8mo	$80,000	$60	76
2617 Crestview Ave	0.15mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$67,500	$54	63
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #94	0.65mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,430 (-1%)	20mo	$72,000	$50	47
2807 Erskinecreekrd Rd	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+8%)	11mo	$40,000	$26	46
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #55	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,326 (-8%)	15mo	$78,500	$59	38
2807 Erskine Creek Rd #90	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	15mo	$20,000	$16	34
2418 Mason Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-13%)	17mo	$95,000	$76	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.01×
• Total profit: $41,247
• Equity at exit: $29,421

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.32×
• Total profit: $100,492
• Equity at exit: $52,200

Cash invested: $13,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,693 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$257
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $595/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• HOA: −$570
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $440

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,135

Max offer price $49,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $468	-5% $454	+0% $440	+5% $426	+10% $412
Rent	-10% $306	-5% $373	+0% $440	+5% $507	+10% $574
Rate	-1.0pp $465	-0.5pp $453	base $440	+0.5pp $427	+1.0pp $414

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,250
• Closing costs: $1,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $570 · $6,840/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,000 Active 85 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,000 Active 84 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,000 Active 83 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,000 Active 82 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,000 Active 80 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,000 Active 79 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,000 Active 77 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,000 Active 76 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,000 Active 75 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,000 Active 74 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,000 Active 71 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 70 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,000 Active 69 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,000 Active 68 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,000 Active 67 DOM
16. 2026-04-07
    price $49,000 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    WOW!! you want quiet, this home is in a 55+ community and is immaculate condition, and very quiet. Turnkey with furniture sold separately. Built in 1973, 1,440 sq. ft, 2 bed, 2 bath each bedroom has its own bathroom, pellet stove, 2 new swamp coolers, HUGE covered patio, carport, built-in cabinets in each bedroom and bathrooms. This home is VERY clean and owner is motivated. Close to Lake Isabella for fishing derby, boating, shops, The MIGHTY Kern rive4r for river rafting, fly fishing, brewery, The TRAIL of 100 GIANTS for the giiant redwood sequoia trees her in the Sequoia National Forest. Great place to retire here in the Kern River Valley with only 3 stop lights in the entire valley!!!

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $57,000 Active 696-char remark

    Show marketing remark (696 chars)

    WOW!! you want quiet, this home is in a 55+ community and is immaculate condition, and very quiet. Turnkey with furniture sold separately. Built in 1973, 1,440 sq. ft, 2 bed, 2 bath each bedroom has its own bathroom, pellet stove, 2 new swamp coolers, HUGE covered patio, carport, built-in cabinets in each bedroom and bathrooms. This home is VERY clean and owner is motivated. Close to Lake Isabella for fishing derby, boating, shops, The MIGHTY Kern rive4r for river rafting, fly fishing, brewery, The TRAIL of 100 GIANTS for the giiant redwood sequoia trees her in the Sequoia National Forest. Great place to retire here in the Kern River Valley with only 3 stop lights in the entire valley!!!

18. 2025-11-05
    price $45,000
19. 2025-11-05
    price $45,000
20. 2025-07-27
    price $52,000
21. 2025-07-27
    price $52,000
22. 2025-07-21
    price $69,000
23. 2025-07-21
    price $69,000
24. 2025-02-28
    listed $79,900 Active
25. 2025-02-27
    listed $79,900 Active
26. 2024-09-27
    listed $79,900 Active
27. 2024-09-27
    listed $79,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $595 · $50/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 11 d/yr ≥91°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,310
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,745
• − Property taxes: −$595
• − Insurance: −$245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,625
• − Management: −$1,625
• − HOA: −$6,840
• − Depreciation: −$1,425
• Taxable income: $5,210
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $4,031/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-38.7% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $49,000 SSMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $57,000 SSMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $45,000 SSMLS
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $45,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $52,000 SSMLS
• 2025-07-27 Price Changed $52,000 GEMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $69,000 SSMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $69,000 GEMLS
• 2025-02-28 Listed $79,900 GEMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed $79,900 SSMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $79,900 GEMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listed $79,900 SSMLS