205 Pansy St · Davenport, FL 33837

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 408 sqft · Manufactured public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1989 3,054 sqft lot $61/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean, bright, 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in gated park. Utility shed in rear w/ washer, dryer. No rear neighbors! Community center w/ solar/gas heated pool, pool room, library, many activities. Small pets welcome.

Key facts

• 3,054 sq ft lot
• Community pool
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unit is furnished; Association fee is required; Third-party listing involved
• Financial info: Total annual fees reported as $735; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Community name: Center Crest; Monthly HOA fee of $61.25; HOA covers common area taxes, escrow reserves, pool, recreational facilities, security, and trash; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, community mailbox, golf carts allowed; Senior community; Pets allowed with possible breed restrictions (cats and dogs OK)

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Gated community (association amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Sewer connected
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide home; Residential property; East-facing; Multi/split levels; Entry level information not provided
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Membrane roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built/area details from public records
• Exterior features: French doors; Chain link and vinyl fencing; Shed(s) on property; Asphalt road access (publicly maintained)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Ductless heating; Mini-split cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; 7 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located outside / other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $219 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#423 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Horizons Elementary School (math 37% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,587 of 2,144 statewide, top 74%, 1,468 students, 42% FRL); Ridge Community High School (math 12% / reading 33%, grade F, #539 of 667 statewide, top 81%, 2,711 students, 48% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 1382 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $34k; list at $145k implies a 326% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.49%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-14,026
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-11,629
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33837

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 1382
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,546 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,440/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$61
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $219

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,268

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $302	-5% $261	+0% $219	+5% $178	+10% $137
Rent	-10% $97	-5% $158	+0% $219	+5% $281	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $292	-0.5pp $256	base $219	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $61 · $732/yr
• Likely covers: gaspoolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   price $145,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $160,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $160,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $160,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $160,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $160,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $160,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $160,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $160,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $160,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $160,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $160,000
17. 2026-04-14
    listed $170,000 Active
18. 2012-04-23
    soldstatus $34,000 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Clean, bright, 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in gated park. Utility shed in rear w/ washer, dryer. No rear neighbors! Community center w/ solar/gas heated pool, pool room, library, many activities. Small pets welcome.

19. 2011-04-07
    listed $47,000 217-char remark

    Show marketing remark (217 chars)

    Clean, bright, 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home in gated park. Utility shed in rear w/ washer, dryer. No rear neighbors! Community center w/ solar/gas heated pool, pool room, library, many activities. Small pets welcome.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,440 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,440 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$1,440
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,484
• − Management: −$1,484
• − HOA: −$732
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $345
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$83
• After-tax cash flow: $2,551/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Davenport

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #7541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Davenport, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 104,279
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 47,389
• Household income: $81,276
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 424.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 42% White 36% Two or more races 16% Black 15% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 22% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 35% French/Haitian/Cajun 6% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.62%
• Current HPI: 256.8165
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.73%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+240.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $160,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $170,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-23 Sold (MLS) $34,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-07 Listed $47,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,440 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.