18 Lakeway St #18 · Panorama Village, TX 77304

$100,000

2 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,584 sqft · Townhouse · 40 Days on market

Built 1970 1,198 sqft lot $63/sqft · 36% below area Est $156k · 36% under $175/mo HOA · 11% of rent ↓ 26% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 18 Lakeway St in Panorama Country Homes—where low-maintenance living meets comfort and style. This freshly updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a functional three-level layout with space to live, relax, and entertain. The first floor features a bright kitchen with granite countertops, gas range, and included refrigerator, along with a dining area, laundry room, and access to a private covered patio and fenced yard. Upstairs, the second-level living room showcases updated LVP flooring, tall ceilings, paneled accent walls, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The third floor offers two spacious primary suites, each with its own full bathroom, with one featuring a private balcony. A secure 2-car garage provides direct access. Enjoy community amenities including pool, mature landscaping, and sidewalks. Conveniently located near local dining, shopping, and everyday essentials—this one is move-in ready!

Key facts

• Bright kitchen
• Fenced yard
• Updated lvp flooring

Tags

• BRIGHT KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• GAS RANGE
• PRIVATE COVERED PATIO
• FENCED YARD
• UPDATED LVP FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $430 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.4% vs local median 3.9% in Panorama Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#851 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 756 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $97,000 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.64% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.41%
• DSCR: 1.82
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,123
• List price: $100,000
• Delta: -35.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $6,485
• Equity at exit: $14,910

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.82×
• Total profit: $22,844
• Equity at exit: $8,646

Cash invested: $28,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77304

• Home prices YoY: -29.3%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 756
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,640 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $430

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,096

Max offer price $100,000

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $499	-5% $464	+0% $430	+5% $395	+10% $361
Rent	-10% $300	-5% $365	+0% $430	+5% $494	+10% $559
Rate	-1.0pp $480	-0.5pp $455	base $430	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $377

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $25,000
• Closing costs: $3,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
27 Lakeway St Conroe, TX	2.0	2.5	1500	$1,400	$0.93	14d	1	0.05mi
350 Rolling Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1808	$1,750	$0.97	25d	1	0.64mi
1560 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	869	$2,045	$2.35	22d	5	0.78mi
8918 Oval Glass St Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1570	$1,835	$1.17	6d	1	0.81mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3228 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,105	$1.46	0d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1593 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$2,250	$1.71	45d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1583 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	14d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2174 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$1,981	$1.76	18d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 3174 Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$2,145	$1.49	11d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1617 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,554	$1.47	11d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 1597 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1123	$2,014	$1.79	45d	1	0.82mi
1560 League Line Rd Unit 2228 Conroe, TX	2.0	2.0	1060	$1,514	$1.43	0d	1	0.82mi
295 Cypress Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.5	2117	$1,871	$0.88	14d	1	0.87mi
1510 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1089	$1,758	$1.61	0d	17	0.90mi
1575 League Line Rd Conroe, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	935	$1,786	$1.91	0d	16	1.00mi
2205 Highland Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,819	$1.22	0d	1	1.26mi
2205 Highland Hills Dr Conroe, TX	3.0	2.0	1489	$1,819	$1.22	45d	1	1.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscapingpool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-08
   days on market $100,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $100,000 Pending 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-04
   days on market $100,000 Active 36 DOM

   Show marketing remark (938 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Lakeway St in Panorama Country Homes—where low-maintenance living meets comfort and style. This freshly updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a functional three-level layout with space to live, relax, and entertain. The first floor features a bright kitchen with granite countertops, gas range, and included refrigerator, along with a dining area, laundry room, and access to a private covered patio and fenced yard. Upstairs, the second-level living room showcases updated LVP flooring, tall ceilings, paneled accent walls, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The third floor offers two spacious primary suites, each with its own full bathroom, with one featuring a private balcony. A secure 2-car garage provides direct access. Enjoy community amenities including pool, mature landscaping, and sidewalks. Conveniently located near local dining, shopping, and everyday essentials—this one is move-in ready!

4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $100,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $100,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $100,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   days on market $100,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-04-29
   listed $100,000 Active 938-char remark

   Show marketing remark (938 chars)

   Welcome to 18 Lakeway St in Panorama Country Homes—where low-maintenance living meets comfort and style. This freshly updated 2-bedroom, 2.5-bath townhome offers a functional three-level layout with space to live, relax, and entertain. The first floor features a bright kitchen with granite countertops, gas range, and included refrigerator, along with a dining area, laundry room, and access to a private covered patio and fenced yard. Upstairs, the second-level living room showcases updated LVP flooring, tall ceilings, paneled accent walls, and a cozy wood-burning fireplace. The third floor offers two spacious primary suites, each with its own full bathroom, with one featuring a private balcony. A secure 2-car garage provides direct access. Enjoy community amenities including pool, mature landscaping, and sidewalks. Conveniently located near local dining, shopping, and everyday essentials—this one is move-in ready!

9. 2026-02-25
   historical
10. 2026-02-19
    listed $172,000 Active
11. 2024-09-24
    historical $1,550
12. 2024-08-28
    price $1,550
13. 2024-07-31
    listed $1,600
14. 2023-09-19
    historical $1,600
15. 2023-09-15
    listed $1,600
16. 2020-04-09
    historical
17. 2020-04-02
    listed $135,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,602
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,575
• − Management: −$1,575
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$2,909
• Taxable income: $3,922
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$941
• After-tax cash flow: $4,214/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

Livability — Panorama Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #851
• US rank: #15333

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Panorama Village, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,225
• Household income: $80,425
• Rent vs Own: 42.8% rent · 57.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2233.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 16% Black 11% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.02%
• Current HPI: 209.516
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.65%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-25.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-09 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-04 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $100,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-19 Listed $172,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-24 Rental Removed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $1,550 HARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2023-09-19 Rental Removed $1,600 HARMLS
• 2023-09-15 Listed for Rent $1,600 HARMLS
• 2020-04-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-04-02 Listed $135,000 HARMLS