13814 Willie Melton Blvd Blvd · Kendleton, TX 77451

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,068 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1970 8,550 sqft lot $112/sqft · 20% below area Est $151k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.6/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Traditional 1-story home in the Bernard River Park subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms on a spacious lot. Recent updates include a newly remodeled roof, a new water heater, and a brand-new stove in the kitchen. The garage has been enclosed and left unfinished, offering a flex space perfect for a home office, gym, or additional living area. Home is on a well-situated lot with easy access to local amenities and highways. Property sold AS IS!!!

Key facts

• Enclosed garage
• Remodeled roof
• Flex space

Tags

• REMODELED ROOF
• NEW WATER HEATER
• BRAND NEW STOVE
• ENCLOSED GARAGE
• FLEX SPACE
• EASY ACCESS TO LOCAL AMENITIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 24.6% vs local median 6.2% in Kendleton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,021 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, crime D.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.1% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 65.26%
• DSCR: 3.90
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $150,578
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -7.02%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13726 Willie Melton Blvd	0.06mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,048 (-2%)	9mo	$145,000	$138	80
13718 Willie Melton Blvd	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,167 (+9%)	11mo	$138,000	$118	63
14119 Willie Melton Blvd	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,001 (-6%)	11mo	$215,000	$215	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 72.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.31×
• Total profit: $144,845
• Equity at exit: $68,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 69.9%
• Equity multiple: 11.03×
• Total profit: $337,120
• Equity at exit: $119,285

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77451

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,450 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$219 /mo · $2,626/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$724
• Net cashflow: $1,827

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,137

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13218 HP Johnson St Unit A Kendleton, TX	3.0	2.5	1364	$3,450	$2.53	1d	1	0.52mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $120,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $140,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $140,000 Active 87 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $140,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $140,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $140,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $140,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-03-12
    listed $140,000 Active 460-char remark

    Show marketing remark (460 chars)

    Traditional 1-story home in the Bernard River Park subdivision featuring 3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms on a spacious lot. Recent updates include a newly remodeled roof, a new water heater, and a brand-new stove in the kitchen. The garage has been enclosed and left unfinished, offering a flex space perfect for a home office, gym, or additional living area. Home is on a well-situated lot with easy access to local amenities and highways. Property sold AS IS!!!

12. 2026-01-08
    soldstatus
13. 2019-10-15
    soldstatus
14. 2017-06-12
    soldstatus
15. 2007-08-31
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,626 · $219/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$2,626
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,312
• − Management: −$3,312
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $21,337
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$5,121
• After-tax cash flow: $16,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kendleton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1021
• US rank: #18149

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kendleton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 510

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (53%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 53% Hispanic / Latino 47% Two or more races 29%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.10%
• Current HPI: 153.2946
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $140,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-06-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-08-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,626 · -9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.