1830 Redtail Hawk Dr Unit RV59J · Eagle Crest, OR 97756

$3,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,323 sqft · Timeshare · 100 Days on market

Built 1993 6,098 sqft lot $3/sqft · 67% below area $332/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath townhouse located in Eagle Crest Resort offering fractional ownership with 4 weeks of use per year. Enjoy a great location overlooking the Deschutes River with easy access to scenic walking paths and trails throughout the resort. Thoughtful floor plan with a guest bedroom on the main level and the primary plus third bedroom upstairs, providing privacy and flexibility for family or guests. The open kitchen, dining, and living area is perfect for gathering, entertaining, or hosting summer BBQs. Large windows bring in natural light and highlight the surrounding landscape. After a day exploring the resort's amenities, relax on your private deck and enjoy the peaceful Central Oregon evenings. Ideal for families or small groups seeking a low-maintenance vacation retreat while enjoying all that Eagle Crest Resort has to offer.

Key facts

• Private deck
• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• THOUGHTFUL FLOOR PLAN
• PRIVATE DECK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath timeshare listed at $4k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($18k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $4k).
• Recommended offer: $4k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 454.5% vs local median 1.5% in Eagle Crest — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#272 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Redmond SD 2J (town): math 24% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #28 of 58 in OR (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 731 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,624 units permitted in Deschutes County in 2024 (391 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $27 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $120 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Deschutes County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($4k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $3,635 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 58.67% ✓
• Cap rate: 454.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 1600.57%
• DSCR: 72.22
• GRM: 0.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $12,010
• List price: $3,995
• Delta: -66.74%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 86.41×
• Total profit: $95,542
• Equity at exit: $596

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 189.05×
• Total profit: $210,349
• Equity at exit: $345

Cash invested: $1,119 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97756

• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 731
• Price-to-rent: 0.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$21
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5 /mo · $60/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$332
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $1,492

Break-even live

Break-even rent $455

Max offer price $3,995

Occupancy floor 31%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $999
• Closing costs: $120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $332 · $3,984/yr

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $3,995 Active 100 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $3,995 Active 99 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $3,995 Active 98 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $3,995 Active 97 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $3,995 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $3,995 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $3,995 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $3,995 Active 91 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $3,995 Active 90 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $3,995 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $3,995 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $3,995 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $3,995 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $3,995 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-03-10
    listed $3,995 Active 859-char remark

    Show marketing remark (859 chars)

    This is a 3 Bedroom, 2 Bath townhouse located in Eagle Crest Resort offering fractional ownership with 4 weeks of use per year. Enjoy a great location overlooking the Deschutes River with easy access to scenic walking paths and trails throughout the resort. Thoughtful floor plan with a guest bedroom on the main level and the primary plus third bedroom upstairs, providing privacy and flexibility for family or guests. The open kitchen, dining, and living area is perfect for gathering, entertaining, or hosting summer BBQs. Large windows bring in natural light and highlight the surrounding landscape. After a day exploring the resort's amenities, relax on your private deck and enjoy the peaceful Central Oregon evenings. Ideal for families or small groups seeking a low-maintenance vacation retreat while enjoying all that Eagle Crest Resort has to offer.

16. 2025-08-28
    status Active
17. 2025-07-31
    status Pending
18. 2025-07-31
    historical
19. 2025-07-19
    price $4,000
20. 2024-04-05
    listed $7,000 Active
21. 2023-12-01
    historical
22. 2023-06-03
    status Active
23. 2023-05-29
    historical
24. 2022-05-27
    listed $13,500 Active
25. 2021-05-12
    soldstatus $10,000 Closed
26. 2021-04-16
    status Pending
27. 2020-12-10
    listed $12,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 25 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,126
• − Mortgage interest: −$224
• − Property taxes: −$60
• − Insurance: −$20
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,250
• − Management: −$2,250
• − HOA: −$3,984
• − Depreciation: −$116
• Taxable income: $19,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,613
• After-tax cash flow: $13,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Redmond SD 2J
• NCES district ID: 4110350
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 28.72/100
• National rank: #6682
• State rank: #28 of 58 in OR

Livability — Eagle Crest

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #272
• US rank: #18365

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C+ Health & safety C- User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Eagle Crest, OR
• County: Deschutes County · 197,892 people
• Metro: Bend, OR
• Population (ZIP): 44,914
• Household income: $87,278
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1205.0

Population outlook (Deschutes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 213,908 people
• By 2030: 232,387 · +8.6%
• By 2040: 265,858 · +24.3%
• By 2050: 295,286 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 353,553 · +65.3%
• By 2100: 380,293 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Deschutes

• 2024 margin: D (+10.1) · D 53.6% · R 43.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.4pp toward D · 2008: -0.3pp · 2024: 10.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.1 2020: D+8.2 2016: R+3.8 2012: R+7.3 2008: R+0.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -292.28%
• Current HPI: 385.3027
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.39%
• Metro: Bend, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

-66.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Listed $3,995 MLSCO
• 2025-08-28 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2025-07-31 Pending — MLSCO
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $4,000 MLSCO
• 2024-04-05 Listed $7,000 MLSCO
• 2023-12-01 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2023-06-03 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2023-05-29 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2022-05-27 Listed $13,500 MLSCO
• 2021-05-12 Sold (MLS) $10,000 MLSCO
• 2021-04-16 Pending — MLSCO
• 2020-12-10 Listed $12,000 MLSCO