Valiant Plan · Parrish, FL 34219

$326,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,407 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Base price does not include the homesite premium or design options. * The Valiant floor plan is accommodating and attractive, with an open central living area. This home has a designer kitchen with an island looking out over the café dining area and a great room, a perfect setting for transitioning to the sofa after another delectable meal. Visible through sliding glass doors in the great room, a roomy covered lanai offers a comfortable spot for relaxing outside. To dine al fresco, you can add an outdoor kitchen wall. The home's master suite includes a spacious bedroom, creating the perfect owner's retreat.

Key facts

• Master suite
• Designer kitchen
• Master bath

Tags

• DESIGNER KITCHEN
• COVERED LANAI
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN WALL
• MASTER SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• MASTER BATH

🏗️ New construction. The $326,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $402,687.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-751 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (10.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (21.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (21.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School (math 80% / reading 73%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 798 students, 31% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2985 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,248 (21.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.99%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $402,687
• List price: $326,990
• Delta: -18.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13044 Sassafras Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	0mo	$318,456	$227	69
4739 Willow Bend Ave	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,439 (+2%)	2mo	$325,000	$226	69
13115 Sassafras Trl	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	2mo	$330,618	$236	69
13107 Sassafras Trl	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	2mo	$328,105	$234	68
13037 Sassafras Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	2mo	$324,905	$232	67
13008 Sassafras Trl	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,400 (-0%)	0mo	$316,055	$226	66
4629 Willow Bend Ave	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,525 (+8%)	4mo	$380,000	$249	66
13246 Sassafras Trl	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-9%)	2mo	$299,123	$235	60
13242 Sassafras Trial	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,575 (+12%)	2mo	$342,218	$217	56
4410 Hawthorn Ave	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,275 (-9%)	5mo	$301,306	$236	56
13134 Sassafras Trl	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,312 (-7%)	3mo	$300,745	$229	55
13023 Bayberry Way	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,241 (-12%)	2mo	$279,478	$225	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.07×
• Total profit: $-120,559
• Equity at exit: $60,042

10-year hold

• IRR: -64.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.73×
• Total profit: $-195,517
• Equity at exit: $34,817

Cash invested: $112,752 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 25 active · 21 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.8 mo (11%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $349,900 ($236/sqft)
• Median days on market: 63 d
• This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +21.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2985
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,112
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$503 /mo · $6,040/yr
• Insurance: −$168
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-751

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,523

Max offer price $294,072

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-472	-5% $-611	+0% $-751	+5% $-890	+10% $-1,029
Rent	-10% $-954	-5% $-852	+0% $-751	+5% $-649	+10% $-547
Rate	-1.0pp $-548	-0.5pp $-648	base $-751	+0.5pp $-855	+1.0pp $-961

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $100,672
• Closing costs: $12,081
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13832 Old Creek Ct Parrish, FL	2.0	2.0	1641	$2,700	$1.65	119d	1	0.24mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $326,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan name: ValiantNew construction plan
• Exterior features: Address: 13427 Old Creek Ct, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,407

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-22
   days on market $326,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-09-21
   days on market $326,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-09-20
   days on market $326,990 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-09-19
   days on market $326,990 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-09-18
   days on market $326,990 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-09-17
   days on market $326,990 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-09-16
   days on market $326,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-09-15
   days on market $326,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-09-14
   days on market $326,990 Active 74 DOM
10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 73 DOM
11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $326,990 Active 72 DOM
12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $326,990 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $326,990 Active 60 DOM
17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 59 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $326,990 Active 58 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 57 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $326,990 Active 56 DOM
21. 2026-08-26
    days on market $326,990 Active 55 DOM
22. 2026-08-25
    days on market $326,990 Active 54 DOM
23. 2026-08-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 53 DOM
24. 2026-08-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 52 DOM
25. 2026-08-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 51 DOM
26. 2026-08-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 50 DOM
27. 2026-08-20
    days on market $326,990 Active 49 DOM
28. 2026-08-19
    days on market $326,990 Active 48 DOM
29. 2026-08-18
    days on market $326,990 Active 47 DOM
30. 2026-08-17
    days on market $326,990 Active 46 DOM
31. 2026-08-16
    days on market $326,990 Active 45 DOM
32. 2026-08-15
    days on market $326,990 Active 44 DOM
33. 2026-08-14
    days on market $326,990 Active 43 DOM
34. 2026-08-13
    days on market $326,990 Active 42 DOM
35. 2026-08-12
    days on market $326,990 Active 41 DOM
36. 2026-08-11
    days on market $326,990 Active 40 DOM
37. 2026-08-10
    days on market $326,990 Active 39 DOM
38. 2026-08-09
    days on market $326,990 Active 38 DOM
39. 2026-08-08
    days on market $326,990 Active 37 DOM
40. 2026-08-07
    days on market $326,990 Active 36 DOM
41. 2026-08-06
    days on market $326,990 Active 35 DOM
42. 2026-08-05
    days on market $326,990 Active 34 DOM
43. 2026-08-04
    days on market $326,990 Active 33 DOM
44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $326,990 Active 29 DOM
45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $326,990 Active 27 DOM
46. 2026-07-28
    days on market $326,990 Active 26 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $326,990 Active 22 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $326,990 Active 21 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $326,990 Active 20 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $326,990 Active 19 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,870
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,557
• − Property taxes: −$6,040
• − Insurance: −$2,013
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,470
• − Management: −$2,470
• − Depreciation: −$11,715
• Taxable loss: −$16,394
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,935
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,073/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,035–$21,105 screening

The home is in good condition with a good exterior, roof, and landscaping. It has a good potential for value increase with some cosmetic updates and improvements to the exterior and HVAC system.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance curb appeal and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Well-maintained landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Replace any worn-out windows — New windows can improve energy efficiency and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrade the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, making the home more attractive to buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 54/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Annie Lucy Williams Elementary School A FL #185/2,144 Nat'l #1,912/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Parrish

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,296
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $326,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces2-car garage
• Home design: Plan name: ValiantNew construction plan
• Exterior features: Address: 13427 Old Creek Ct, Parrish, FL 34219

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1,407