29417 Kelly Dr · Wesley Chapel, FL 33544

$299,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Land · 287 Days on market

Built 2000 0.92 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

There are many things in life that come around once and this NO HOA or CDD lot in the heart of Wesley Chapel, Florida is one of those things. Positioned right off Old Pasco Road, this lot is ideal for somebody looking to build their dream home and have quick access to I75. Whether you're looking to put a home or have the opportunity to say you own land in a highly coveted area of Florida, this is the lot for you! Buyer/Buyer Agent to verify dimensions and measurements.

Key facts

• Fully renovated
• Metal roof
• New septic system

Tags

• FULLY RENOVATED
• BRAND NEW DRAIN FIELD
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• METAL ROOF

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential, manufactured home; Property sub-type: Double wide; Completed condition; Approximately 0.92 acre lot (about 1/2 to less than 1 acre); Zoning: RMH; No CDD; No lease restrictions
• HOA & community: No association; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking; Open/oversized parking
• Utilities: Public water; Septic system (aerobic/private/septic tank); Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential manufactured home (double wide); One level; South-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Estimated living area ~1680 sq ft; Estimated total building area ~1880 sq ft
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Balcony; Exterior lighting; Private mailbox; Landscaped with trees; Cleared and paved lot; Public maintained paved road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Thermostat; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.7% in Wesley Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#143 in FL, #2,137 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Quail Hollow Elementary School (math 45% / reading 49%, grade D-, #1,191 of 2,144 statewide, top 57%, 543 students, 61% FRL); Thomas E. Weightman Middle School (math 48% / reading 53%, grade C, #246 of 571 statewide, top 44%, 1,250 students, 40% FRL); Cypress Creek High School (math 48% / reading 56%, grade D+, #160 of 667 statewide, top 25%, 1,851 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 45% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.3%/yr); 192 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 287 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 11896% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $93k; list at $300k implies a 222% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,910 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 287 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.80%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.53×
• Total profit: $-39,424
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-42,523
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33544

• Home prices YoY: -24.1%
• Rents YoY: -2.3%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,599 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,078/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$546
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,263

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $436	-5% $351	+0% $266	+5% $181	+10% $96
Rent	-10% $60	-5% $163	+0% $266	+5% $368	+10% $471
Rate	-1.0pp $417	-0.5pp $342	base $266	+0.5pp $188	+1.0pp $109

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29417 Kelly Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1680	$2,500	$1.49	26d	1	0.03mi
8351 Greenway Ave Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	3.0	2017	$2,495	$1.24	26d	1	0.39mi
7733 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	4d	1	1.00mi
7724 Outerbridge St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1871	$2,200	$1.18	4d	1	1.03mi
30441 Annadale Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,175	$1.17	22d	1	1.07mi
30406 Arrochar St Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1858	$2,099	$1.13	26d	1	1.10mi
30513 Randall Manor St Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1665	$2,400	$1.44	1d	1	1.10mi
7624 Tallowtree Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	2100	$2,350	$1.12	20d	1	1.11mi
30633 Totteridge Pl Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1805	$2,195	$1.22	26d	1	1.28mi
7730 Crescent Palm Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1906	$2,500	$1.31	22d	1	1.30mi
7730 Crescent Palm Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1906	$2,500	$1.31	5d	1	1.30mi
8824 Overlook Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	3.0	1200	$1,900	$1.58	26d	1	1.33mi
7926 Stoney Hill Dr Wesley Chapel, FL	3.0	2.0	1885	$2,600	$1.38	0d	1	1.39mi
7632 Armonk Ln Wesley Chapel, FL	4.0	2.0	1471	$2,400	$1.63	26d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 287 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 286 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 285 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,900 Active 284 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,900 Active 282 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,900 Active 278 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 677-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $299,900 Active 277 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 619-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $319,000 Active 276 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,078 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,411/yr (+$118/mo · 130.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,189
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$1,078
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,495
• − Management: −$2,495
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$1,902
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$457
• After-tax cash flow: $3,646/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Wesley Chapel

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #2137

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 100,771
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 29,901
• Household income: $104,573
• Rent vs Own: 32.9% rent · 67.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 378.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 20% Black 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 6% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.76%
• Current HPI: 266.5191
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.30%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+614.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $299,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-06 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-31 Rental Removed $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-15 Listed for Rent $2,500 APPFOLIO
• 2026-04-16 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Price Changed $319,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-02 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $335,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Listed $350,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-26 Sold (MLS) $93,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-21 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-18 Listed $99,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-24 Sold (MLS) $38,000 HCAR
• 2006-11-08 Listed $42,000 HCAR

Property tax history

+6.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,078 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.