2312 Kay St · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$115,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1982 6,181 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to a 2-bed, 2-bath manufactured home on its own land in the sought-after Lake Mariana Acres community. Featuring 1,248 sqft of living space, an oversized screened porch, covered carport, and wood-look flooring throughout — this home has great bones and endless potential. The massive living area offers real space to spread out, and a utility room with washer/dryer hookups adds everyday convenience. Optional HOA gives access to a private boat ramp, clubhouse, and Lake Mariana — No CDD. Priced for the buyer with vision — schedule your showing today before it's gone!

Key facts

• Utility room
• Clubhouse
• Covered carport

Tags

• LAKE MARIANA ACRES COMMUNITY
• OVERSIZED SCREENED PORCH
• COVERED CARPORT
• UTILITY ROOM
• PRIVATE BOAT RAMP
• CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub-type: Manufactured Home; Zoning: R-3
• HOA & community: HOA available; fees optional; Community clubhouse; Community pool; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Carport with 1 space
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Slab foundation; Built as a double wide manufactured home
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot dimensions approximately 60 x 103; Lot size about 0.14 acres (under 1/4 acre)

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Wood flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups inside (none listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $115k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $340 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $115k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Walter Caldwell Elementary School (math 27% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,896 of 2,144 statewide, top 90%, 895 students, 58% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 29% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 279 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $795 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $115k implies a 147% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.68%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,081
• Equity at exit: $17,147

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.96×
• Total profit: $30,785
• Equity at exit: $9,943

Cash invested: $32,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 279
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,493 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$603
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,260/yr
• Insurance: −$48
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $340

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,062

Max offer price $115,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $405	-5% $373	+0% $340	+5% $308	+10% $275
Rent	-10% $222	-5% $281	+0% $340	+5% $399	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $398	-0.5pp $369	base $340	+0.5pp $310	+1.0pp $280

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $28,750
• Closing costs: $3,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Sunset Cir Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1176	$1,100	$0.94	4d	1	0.25mi
609 Marianna Rd Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1187	$1,730	$1.46	24d	1	1.19mi
149 Jana Cir Auburndale, FL	3.0	2.0	1352	$1,650	$1.22	24d	1	1.22mi
711 Lake Jessie Dr Winter Haven, FL	2.0	2.0	884	$1,400	$1.58	24d	1	1.45mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	24d	1	1.46mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	24d	1	1.46mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	24d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $115,000
2. 2026-04-24
   listed $119,990 Active
3. 2023-06-29
   historical
4. 2023-06-20
   price $134,900
5. 2023-06-01
   listed $139,900 Active
6. 2010-08-26
   listed $55,500
7. 1993-03-16
   soldstatus $46,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,260 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,916
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,442
• − Property taxes: −$2,260
• − Insurance: −$575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,433
• − Management: −$1,433
• − Depreciation: −$3,345
• Taxable income: $2,428
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$583
• After-tax cash flow: $3,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 431.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+147.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $115,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-24 Listed $119,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-29 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-20 Price Changed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-01 Listed $139,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-08-26 Listed $55,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-03-16 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,260 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.