15517 Flight Way · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,028 sqft · SingleFamily · 117 Days on market

Built 2001 ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great Location Townhouse just a couple of blocks off Cedar Ave. Close to shopping, busses and entertainment. Brand new central A/C unit, Water Softner, Washing machine and Stove 2025.

Key facts

• Water softner
• Stove
• Washing machine

Tags

• CENTRAL A/C UNIT
• WATER SOFTNER
• WASHING MACHINE
• STOVE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 garage space
• Home design: Residential property
• Exterior features: Lot described as 1 x1

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $16 ($190/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (11.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (11.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Parkview Elementary (math 46% / reading 43%, grade F, #534 of 857 statewide, top 66%, 694 students, 42% FRL); Scott Highlands Middle (math 40% / reading 62%, grade C, #69 of 258 statewide, top 27%, 1,184 students, 28% FRL); Rosemount Senior High (math 54% / reading 67%, grade C+, #43 of 471 statewide, top 9%, 2,425 students, 21% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 274 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 117 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,608 (11.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 117 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.27%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-38,854
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.57×
• Total profit: $-29,923
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 274
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,206 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$312 /mo · $3,748/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,186

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $189	-5% $102	+0% $16	+5% $-71	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-158	-5% $-71	+0% $16	+5% $103	+10% $190
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $79	base $16	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-115

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	26d	1	0.08mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	26d	1	0.09mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	26d	1	0.14mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	4d	1	0.19mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	1d	1	0.19mi
15734 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$2,217	$1.96	0d	15	0.19mi
6780 Fortino St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$4,095	$3.66	0d	12	0.24mi
15600 Galaxie Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1244	$1,935	$1.55	1d	7	0.25mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,250	$2.56	1d	17	0.37mi
6444 158th St W Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,889	$1.50	3d	1	0.39mi
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,475	$2.33	0d	13	0.39mi
15782 Flackwood Trl Apple Valley, MN	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	22d	1	0.45mi
15380 Garrett Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1676	$3,296	$1.97	4d	10	0.47mi
7472 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,750	$1.70	0d	2	0.75mi
7802 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	26d	2	0.96mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,661	$2.72	1d	24	1.01mi
7824 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	4d	1	1.01mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,667	$2.59	0d	14	1.43mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-03-19
   price $249,900
2. 2026-01-27
   listed $259,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,748
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,118
• − Management: −$2,118
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$4,029
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$967
• After-tax cash flow: $1,157/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-3.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $249,900 RAOR
• 2026-01-27 Listed $259,000 RAOR