1896 E Elmwood Ave · Falconer, NY 14733

$59,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1949 0.34 ac lot $50/sqft · 64% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Expanded Ranch style unit, 2 br's and full bath on first floor, with addition of finished attic, 2 more br's and a full bath up. Larger than it looks, must see. Deep lot. Community:Biking/fitness trail,

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1949

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; Two garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing/resale property
• Construction: Brick construction; Block and slab foundation
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.34 acres, 90 x 165)

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances negotiable
• Bedrooms: Two main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Living/dining room; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $359 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#391 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Falconer Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #423 of 590 in NY (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 17 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($414 loan paydown + $1k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (2.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; 29% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.5% of price; built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $58,103 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.68%
• DSCR: 2.14
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $164,813
• List price: $59,900
• Delta: -63.66%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
222 E James St	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,144 (-5%)	18mo	$132,000	$115	51
118 E Falconer St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,040 (-13%)	6mo	$154,000	$148	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $28,585
• Equity at exit: $25,265

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.28×
• Total profit: $71,829
• Equity at exit: $37,686

Cash invested: $16,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14733

• Home prices YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 17
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,103 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$173 /mo · $2,081/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$232
• Net cashflow: $359

Break-even live

Break-even rent $649

Max offer price $59,900

Occupancy floor 62%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $393	-5% $376	+0% $359	+5% $342	+10% $325
Rent	-10% $272	-5% $315	+0% $359	+5% $403	+10% $446
Rate	-1.0pp $389	-0.5pp $374	base $359	+0.5pp $343	+1.0pp $328

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,975
• Closing costs: $1,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $59,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   price $59,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $63,500 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $63,500 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $63,500 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $63,500 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $63,500 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $63,500 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $63,500 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $63,500 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $63,500 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $63,500 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $63,500 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $63,500 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $63,500 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    price $63,500 176-char remark
17. 2026-05-04
    listed $72,500 Active 176-char remark
18. 2017-09-08
    soldstatus $46,500
19. 2017-08-03
    soldstatus $46,500 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Expanded Ranch style unit, 2 br's and full bath on first floor, with addition of finished attic, 2 more br's and a full bath up. Larger than it looks, must see. Deep lot. Community:Biking/fitness trail,

20. 2017-03-08
    listed $47,500 202-char remark

    Show marketing remark (202 chars)

    Expanded Ranch style unit, 2 br's and full bath on first floor, with addition of finished attic, 2 more br's and a full bath up. Larger than it looks, must see. Deep lot. Community:Biking/fitness trail,

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,081 · $173/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,081 · $173/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,355
• − Property taxes: −$2,081
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,059
• − Management: −$1,059
• − Depreciation: −$1,743
• Taxable income: $3,641
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$874
• After-tax cash flow: $3,433/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Falconer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3610920
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $44,363
• Composite: 40.96/100
• National rank: #3600
• State rank: #423 of 590 in NY

Livability — Falconer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #391
• US rank: #6759

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,201

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Current HPI: 271.5037
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+26.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Price Changed $59,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $63,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $72,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $46,500 Public Records
• 2017-08-03 Sold (MLS) $46,500 UNYREIS
• 2017-03-08 Listed $47,500 UNYREIS

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,081 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.