4837 Faith Home Rd · Keyes, CA 95307

$64,950

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 4,318 sqft · Land public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1974 $15/sqft · 100% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Ceres Mobile Estates, a welcoming all-age mobile home community in Ceres. Residents can enjoy community amenities including a clubhouse and pool. This well-maintained home features a new HVAC system for year-round comfort, plus a gas stove and double oven perfect for everyday cooking and entertaining. Enjoy the spacious and functional layout with an indoor laundry room and a dedicated office area with desk included. Step outside to a large covered patioideal for relaxing or hosting guests. Covered parking adds convenience, and the backyard shed provides extra storage space. A great opportunity to own in a desirable community with practical upgrades and comfortable living spaces.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1974
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in Ceres, CA 95307 (Faith Home Estates)
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; Land lease: no (note: a land lease amount of $865 is listed — verify if applicable)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; 220V outlet in laundry; Public sewer; Private water with water district service
• Home design: Manufactured in-park double wide; Built in 1974
• Construction: Metal skirting; Sherwood manufactured home
• Exterior features: Composition roof; Lot with no notable features or other

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Electric cooktop; Hood over range; Double oven; Microwave; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (possible 3)
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Porch; Formal dining area; Living room with unspecified feature
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $65k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $942 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $65k).
• Recommended offer: $63k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.7% vs local median 4.0% in Keyes — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 46/100 on livability (#1,280 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $450 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($63k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,001 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 62.16%
• DSCR: 3.77
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,328,031,362
• List price: $64,950
• Delta: -100.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 61.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.72×
• Total profit: $49,500
• Equity at exit: $9,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 65.7%
• Equity multiple: 7.62×
• Total profit: $120,469
• Equity at exit: $5,616

Cash invested: $18,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,761 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$341
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$81 /mo · $974/yr
• Insurance: −$27
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$370
• Net cashflow: $942

Break-even live

Break-even rent $568

Max offer price $64,950

Occupancy floor 41%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $987	-5% $964	+0% $942	+5% $920	+10% $897
Rent	-10% $803	-5% $872	+0% $942	+5% $1,012	+10% $1,081
Rate	-1.0pp $975	-0.5pp $959	base $942	+0.5pp $925	+1.0pp $908

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $16,238
• Closing costs: $1,948
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $64,950 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $64,950 Active 40 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $64,950 Active 39 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $64,950 Active 38 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,950 Active 37 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $74,950 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,950 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,950 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $74,950 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $74,950 Active 29 DOM
12. 2021-11-22
    soldstatus $20,000,000
13. 2021-05-28
    historical
14. 2021-05-24
    listed $67,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,638
• − Property taxes: −$974
• − Insurance: −$325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,690
• − Management: −$1,690
• − Depreciation: −$1,889
• Taxable income: $10,920
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,621
• After-tax cash flow: $8,683/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Keyes

• Score: 46/100
• State rank: #1280
• US rank: #26476

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment D Housing A Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keyes, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 3,939
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+29750.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2021-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000,000 Public Records
• 2021-05-28 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2021-05-24 Listed $67,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+36.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $116,807 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.