121 Chestnut Hill Dr · New Salem, PA 17408

$10,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,184 sqft · Manufactured public records · 78 Days on market

Built 1987 $8/sqft · 90% below area ↓ 50% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

HOME MUST BE MOVED BY BUYER – THIS HOME CANNOT REMAIN IN THE PARK. Great opportunity to own a well-maintained mobile home ready for relocation! This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with plenty of room for dining, a large and inviting living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a full bathroom equipped with convenient his-and-hers sinks. In addition, there is a versatile bonus room on the side that can be used as a family room, office, or flex space, complete with access to an extra deck for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for buyers looking to place a home on their own land or in a new location—don’t miss this unique opportunity!

Key facts

• Full bathroom
• Bonus room
• Large living room

Tags

• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• FULL BATHROOM
• HIS-AND-HERS SINKS
• BONUS ROOM
• EXTRA DECK

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $10,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$105,262) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $10k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $10k).
• Recommended offer: $9k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 138.2% vs local median 3.9% in New Salem — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#1,075 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Spring Grove Area SD (suburban): math 45% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #98 of 539 in PA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: New Salem El Sch (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #151 of 1,518 statewide, top 12%, 414 students, 33% FRL); Spring Grove Area Intrmd Sch (math 44% / reading 65%, grade B-, #76 of 512 statewide, top 16%, 651 students, 38% FRL); Spring Grove Area Hs (math 71%, 1,166 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,328 units permitted in York County in 2024 (338 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $69 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $300 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $3k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($9k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (50%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $9,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 15.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 138.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 470.93%
• DSCR: 21.95
• GRM: 0.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $105,262
• List price: $10,000
• Delta: -90.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.43×
• Total profit: $68,399
• Equity at exit: $1,491

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 54.51×
• Total profit: $149,815
• Equity at exit: $865

Cash invested: $2,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17408

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 0.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,501 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$52
• Tax from tax record: −$31 /mo · $367/yr
• Insurance: −$4
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$315
• Net cashflow: $1,099

Break-even live

Break-even rent $110

Max offer price $10,000

Occupancy floor 22%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,104	-5% $1,102	+0% $1,099	+5% $1,096	+10% $1,093
Rent	-10% $980	-5% $1,040	+0% $1,099	+5% $1,158	+10% $1,217
Rate	-1.0pp $1,104	-0.5pp $1,101	base $1,099	+0.5pp $1,096	+1.0pp $1,094

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $2,500
• Closing costs: $300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3906 Tunnel Hill Rd York, PA	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,595	$1.45	15d	15	0.55mi
3533 Messersmith Rd Seven Valleys, PA	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,295	$1.79	15d	1	0.58mi
1480 Seven Valleys Rd Unit 3 York, PA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,399	$1.65	45d	1	0.64mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $10,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $10,000 Active 75 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $10,000 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $10,000 Active 73 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $10,000 Active 72 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $10,000 Active 70 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $10,000 Active 69 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $10,000 Active 67 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $10,000 Active 66 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $10,000 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $10,000 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $10,000 Active 61 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $10,000 Active 60 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $10,000 Active 59 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $10,000 Active 58 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $10,000 Active 57 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $10,000 Active 56 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    price $10,000 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    HOME MUST BE MOVED BY BUYER – THIS HOME CANNOT REMAIN IN THE PARK. Great opportunity to own a well-maintained mobile home ready for relocation! This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with plenty of room for dining, a large and inviting living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a full bathroom equipped with convenient his-and-hers sinks. In addition, there is a versatile bonus room on the side that can be used as a family room, office, or flex space, complete with access to an extra deck for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for buyers looking to place a home on their own land or in a new location—don’t miss this unique opportunity!

19. 2026-04-04
    listed $20,000 Active 666-char remark

    Show marketing remark (666 chars)

    HOME MUST BE MOVED BY BUYER – THIS HOME CANNOT REMAIN IN THE PARK. Great opportunity to own a well-maintained mobile home ready for relocation! This home features a spacious eat-in kitchen with plenty of room for dining, a large and inviting living room perfect for relaxing or entertaining, and a full bathroom equipped with convenient his-and-hers sinks. In addition, there is a versatile bonus room on the side that can be used as a family room, office, or flex space, complete with access to an extra deck for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for buyers looking to place a home on their own land or in a new location—don’t miss this unique opportunity!

20. 2018-09-28
    historical
21. 2017-07-15
    listed $85,900
22. 2003-06-05
    historical
23. 2002-12-05
    listed $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $367 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,016
• − Mortgage interest: −$560
• − Property taxes: −$367
• − Insurance: −$50
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,441
• − Management: −$1,441
• − Depreciation: −$291
• Taxable income: $13,865
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,328
• After-tax cash flow: $9,858/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spring Grove Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4222590
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $64,950
• Composite: 48.28/100
• National rank: #2155
• State rank: #98 of 539 in PA

Livability — New Salem

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #1075
• US rank: #12137

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: York County · 278,806 people
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• Population (ZIP): 25,431
• Household income: $94,565
• Rent vs Own: 25.9% rent · 74.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 435.0

Population outlook (York County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 454,205 people
• By 2030: 457,407 · +0.7%
• By 2040: 457,529 · +0.7%
• By 2050: 448,261 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 427,388 · -5.9%
• By 2100: 384,218 · -15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 5% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · York

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.3) · D 36.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.7pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -25.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.3 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+29.3 2012: R+21.2 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.74%
• Current HPI: 239.5179
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: York-Hanover, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-50.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $10,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2018-09-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2017-07-15 Listed $85,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-06-05 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2002-12-05 Listed $20,000 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $367 · +1.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.