2012 Spring Glen St · Mission, TX 78572

$250,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,468 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 196 Days on market

Built 1982 0.45 ac lot $101/sqft · 18% below area Est $304k · 18% under ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4-bedroom, 2-bath home features two separate living rooms and two dining areas. Situated on almost half-acre corner lot, the property includes a large backyard and a huge covered patio — perfect for outdoor dining, summer barbecues, or just enjoying peace and privacy. The home’s location is unbeatable: minutes from shopping, dining, parks, quality schools, and all the amenities you need for day-to-day convenience.

Key facts

• Quality schools
• Large backyard
• Dining areas

Tags

• SEPARATE LIVING ROOMS
• DINING AREAS
• LARGE BACKYARD
• COVERED PATIO
• CORNER LOT
• QUALITY SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-287/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $246k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $238k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,377/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 1714% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($220k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 94% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.41%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,540
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -17.64%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1106 Fairway Dr	0.33mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,468 (0%)	1mo	$539,000	$218	79
2212 N Bryan Rd	0.11mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,524 (+2%)	4mo	$329,000	$130	78
1501 Sheri Lee Dr	0.38mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,595 (+5%)	8mo	$325,000	$125	61
1801 Melissa Rae Dr	0.50mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,634 (+7%)	10mo	$449,900	$171	50
1512 E 22nd St	0.36mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,157 (-13%)	12mo	$279,000	$129	47
1605 Lila Beth Ln	0.57mi	4/4.0 (-1)	2,731 (+11%)	0mo	$398,500	$146	46
1208 E 28th St	0.68mi	5/3.5	2,795 (+13%)	0mo	$318,000	$114	44
1108 Ann Marie St	0.37mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,223 (-10%)	18mo	$219,000	$99	42
1101 Country Club Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,153 (-13%)	12mo	$255,000	$118	40
1606 Sheri Lee Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,663 (+8%)	20mo	$379,900	$143	39
1012 Thornwood Dr	0.58mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,748 (+11%)	10mo	$250,000	$91	39
1609 Crown Point Blvd	0.58mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,752 (+12%)	12mo	$389,000	$141	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-46,741
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-61,177
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78572

• Home prices YoY: -22.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,377 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$487 /mo · $5,839/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$499
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,407

Max offer price $245,777

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1606 Terrace Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2127	$2,600	$1.22	14d	1	0.51mi
1301 San Felipe Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2788	$2,100	$0.75	44d	1	0.59mi
1412 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2068	$2,300	$1.11	23d	1	0.70mi
1511 E 28th St Mission, TX	4.0	2.5	2741	$2,400	$0.88	44d	1	0.77mi
2516 Wisteria Dr Mission, TX	4.0	3.0	2066	$2,800	$1.36	14d	1	0.90mi
2515 Dove Ave Mission, TX	5.0	3.0	2637	$2,500	$0.95	44d	1	1.22mi
2510 May Ave Mission, TX	4.0	4.0	2437	$2,500	$1.03	23d	1	1.28mi
2200 E 27th St Mission, TX	4.0	3.5	2351	$2,600	$1.11	44d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $250,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $250,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $250,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $250,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $250,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $250,000 Active 188 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $250,000 Active 187 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 186 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $250,000 Active 185 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $250,000 Active 181 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $250,000 Active 180 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $250,000 Active 179 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 178 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $250,000 Active 177 DOM
15. 2026-04-09
    price $250,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2-bath home features two separate living rooms and two dining areas. Situated on almost half-acre corner lot, the property includes a large backyard and a huge covered patio — perfect for outdoor dining, summer barbecues, or just enjoying peace and privacy. The home’s location is unbeatable: minutes from shopping, dining, parks, quality schools, and all the amenities you need for day-to-day convenience.

16. 2026-03-02
    price $280,000 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2-bath home features two separate living rooms and two dining areas. Situated on almost half-acre corner lot, the property includes a large backyard and a huge covered patio — perfect for outdoor dining, summer barbecues, or just enjoying peace and privacy. The home’s location is unbeatable: minutes from shopping, dining, parks, quality schools, and all the amenities you need for day-to-day convenience.

17. 2026-01-28
    price $299,500 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2-bath home features two separate living rooms and two dining areas. Situated on almost half-acre corner lot, the property includes a large backyard and a huge covered patio — perfect for outdoor dining, summer barbecues, or just enjoying peace and privacy. The home’s location is unbeatable: minutes from shopping, dining, parks, quality schools, and all the amenities you need for day-to-day convenience.

18. 2025-12-04
    listed $325,000 Active 429-char remark

    Show marketing remark (429 chars)

    4-bedroom, 2-bath home features two separate living rooms and two dining areas. Situated on almost half-acre corner lot, the property includes a large backyard and a huge covered patio — perfect for outdoor dining, summer barbecues, or just enjoying peace and privacy. The home’s location is unbeatable: minutes from shopping, dining, parks, quality schools, and all the amenities you need for day-to-day convenience.

19. 2020-11-12
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,839 · $487/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,839 · $487/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 94% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,525
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$5,839
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,282
• − Management: −$2,282
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$4,405
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $770/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 78,024
• Household income: $54,298
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1714.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 85% Two or more races 47% White 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 80%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Portuguese 0%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 22% English-only · Spanish 76%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.35%
• Current HPI: 209.3573
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $250,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $280,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $299,500 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $325,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2020-11-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,839 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.