2129 Zaragoza Pl · The Villages, FL 32159

$360,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,669 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1998 7,648 sqft lot Est $389k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PRICE REDUCTION No Bond! This well-maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath Sedona designer home is ideally situated on a spacious corner lot and offers a thoughtful split floor plan for added privacy between the primary suite and guest bedrooms. A bright and inviting entry opens to a central hallway, leading to an expansive main living area straight ahead, a generously sized kitchen to the right, and a separate hallway to the left that provides access to two guest bedrooms and a full bath. The main living and dining space features vaulted ceilings and an open-concept design, creating an airy, comfortable setting perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The kitchen is well-appointed with ampl

Key facts

• Quiet cul-de-sac
• Spacious corner lot
• Large scenic pond

Tags

• SPACIOUS CORNER LOT
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC
• NEATLY MANICURED LANDSCAPING
• LARGE SCENIC POND
• BRIGHT WELCOMING ENTRY
• EXPANSIVE MAIN LIVING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Irrigation equipment
• HOA & community: Senior community; CDD present; Homestead exempt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Underground utilities; Sprinkler recycled
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Built on slab foundation
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; Sprinkler system (metered)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Ice maker; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Slab foundation
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $360k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $653 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $360k).
• Recommended offer: $338k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,632/mo this rent would consume 74% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($338k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $135k; list at $360k implies a 166% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,400 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $388,877
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2052 Palo Alto Ave	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+1%)	3mo	$500,000	$296	91
2125 Zaragoza Pl	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,494 (-10%)	1mo	$370,000	$248	80
1134 Salido Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-8%)	1mo	$360,000	$233	70
2051 Palo Alto Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,908 (+14%)	0mo	$360,000	$189	68
1110 Salido Ave	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-11%)	3mo	$435,000	$293	67
1229 Augustine Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,677 (+0%)	6mo	$360,000	$215	65
1903 Antonia Pl	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,464 (-12%)	1mo	$380,000	$260	64
1916 Iglesia St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,437 (-14%)	4mo	$300,000	$209	64
2016 Claudio Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,527 (-8%)	3mo	$310,000	$203	55
930 Camino Del Rey Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,558 (-7%)	1mo	$292,000	$187	53
703 Melendez Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,509 (-10%)	3mo	$320,000	$212	49
1726 Madero Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-10%)	5mo	$520,000	$344	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-13,036
• Equity at exit: $53,677

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $57,708
• Equity at exit: $31,126

Cash invested: $100,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,632 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,888
• Tax from tax record: −$178 /mo · $2,141/yr
• Insurance: −$150
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$763
• Net cashflow: $653

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,805

Max offer price $360,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $857	-5% $755	+0% $653	+5% $551	+10% $450
Rent	-10% $366	-5% $510	+0% $653	+5% $797	+10% $940
Rate	-1.0pp $835	-0.5pp $745	base $653	+0.5pp $560	+1.0pp $465

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $90,000
• Closing costs: $10,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	0.07mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	0.15mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	21d	1	0.31mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	0.49mi
722 Camino del Rey Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1205	$2,000	$1.66	21d	1	0.87mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	21d	1	0.92mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	0.95mi
1524 Martinez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1199	$2,095	$1.75	21d	1	1.02mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	1.05mi
613 Enconto St Unit 1525268P The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,788	$1.63	21d	1	1.17mi
1688 Garcia Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1075	$1,700	$1.58	21d	1	1.18mi
2829 Burgos Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1156	$1,850	$1.60	21d	1	1.31mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	21d	1	1.32mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.34mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	21d	1	1.34mi
1129 Santa Cruz Dr The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,350	$2.13	21d	1	1.40mi
716 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1094	$2,450	$2.24	21d	1	1.43mi
628 Dominguez Dr Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$2,245	$1.85	21d	1	1.44mi
623 Arteaga Way Unit 1525262P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,896	$1.15	21d	1	1.48mi
1330 La Jolla Cir The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1214	$3,000	$2.47	21d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $360,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $360,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $360,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $360,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $360,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $360,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $360,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $360,000 Active 82 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $360,000 Active 81 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $360,000 Active 80 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $360,000 Active 79 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $370,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $370,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $370,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $370,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-04-21
    price $370,000
17. 2026-03-20
    listed $385,000 Active
18. 1998-08-11
    soldstatus $135,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,141 · $178/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,988 · $249/mo
• Expected delta: +$847/yr (+$71/mo · 39.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 21% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,166
• − Property taxes: −$2,141
• − Insurance: −$1,800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,487
• − Management: −$3,487
• − Depreciation: −$10,473
• Taxable income: $2,035
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$488
• After-tax cash flow: $7,351/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+173.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-20 Listed $385,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1998-08-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,141 · +1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.